Pro Prado

[mbeychok]

I\'m surprised at the lack of support for Pro Prado on these boards. Granted, we\'re talking about a horse who has never won a graded stake but by sheer number power alone he is a must play on Saturday. My question for everybody is - will he pair up again or are the three efforts the end of the road?

My guess is that he either pairs up or moves forward  - 35%; goes back 1-2 points 35% and x\'s 30%.  At those percentages, he is a bet as his number would put him in the very thick of things at a juicy 30-1+.

Atswhatimtalkinabout came in last year with 3 straight 2\'s, I think and ran another.  Can Pro Prado do it with his numbers. Any horse that can run three efforts like his in a row is a special horse. One of my concerns is that he moved very well through the turn at OP last time out but kind of flattened out in chasing Borrego and SJ. However, he ran his last 1/4 in 24 so he wasn\'t flattening but Borrego and Smarty were a little quicker.

What are everyone thoughts?

Michael

[Upper Nile]

Michael, shhh keep it down about this one-do a rain dance and....See my Pro Prado post dated 4-22. The likely odds will be more than sufficient to bet he can run  that 1 again which puts him right there, with a better than odds chance he will move forward. Trainer has been quoted as saying instructions will be to save ground-I like that. Big overlay. IMO.
Regards,
Phil

[HP]

You have to use him at the price. The real question for me is going to be, how much am I going to invest in this race? I\'ll probably have to spread out quite a bit to cover all the bases...

Michael, your question is almost exactly what I referred to in my earlier post. Can he throw down another one? Most horses can\'t, but at 30-1, if he comes in the tri and I didn\'t use him I might die. HP

[Michael D.]

breeding: sire, el prado, has some of the best distance influences you could want in a pedigree. his sire, sadlers wells, is known throughout the world as a top producer of long winded runners, and his female family traces back to the great somethingroyal, dam of secretariat. most el prado runners have a very low dosage because of his excellent distance profile. on the track, however, el prado\'s offspring have run nearly as well going less than 1m as they have going longer than 1m (using the TG sire stats), and the average winning distance of his offspring is 7.2f. in short, el prado is capable of siring long winded runners, but his influence does not guarantee stamina. pro prado\'s female family is a mixed bag in terms of predicting stamina. go back a generation or two and you find brilliant influences in danzig and conquistador cielo, but you do not see many true distance infuences. pro prado\'s dam, mamas pro, could go both short and long, but did her best running at less than 1m. when looking at pro prado\'s pedigree as a whole, i see a horse that should wind up doing his best running at 8 to 9f. i would guess the horse will regress a bit when stretching to 10f (as most will in today\'s breeding environment).

pace scenerio: pro prado does have very good tactical speed, and if i were the trainer, i would send the horse just a bit in order to avoid trouble. i doubt the connections will take this route however. the horse has had good luck in his last few stakes races by rating back, saving ground, and closing at the end, and most trainers stick to the plan when it is getting good checks. the problem in the derby, however, is that there is one true speed horse and four closer types in the race. the other fifteen horses can be classified as speed/stalker, stalker, or stalker/closer types. in other words, if mckee wants to save ground in this year\'s derby, he most likely will have to wrangle the horse way to the back. if he wants to lay 6-8 lengths off the pace, he most likely will have to run a few paths wide around each turn. brisnet pp trip notes say \"golden trip inside\" for his last race. mckee could get lucky and find a hole that leads him right to the rail, but the odds are that the horse will lose at least \"3-4\" points from the trip alone. so, the question becomes, is he fast enough to overcome this........

the numbers: pro prado has run three fast races in a row. each time, the horse has rated well, made a nice middle move, and continued on at the end. in fact, pro prado\'s late pace # from his last race was a very strong 113. so, how does the pattern continue from here? in pro prado\'s southwest and rebel races, i saw nice closing moves, but i did not envision the horse getting any stronger as he stretched out. the closing fractions in the 1m race were slow, and when he faced fast late fractions in the rebel, he lost ground. in my pre race analysis of the ark derby, i included pro prado as one of the top three selections at 17-1, mainly because there were a bunch of speed/stalker types, and i thought mckee would be abe to get over to the rail without too much trouble. i also moved the horse way up because of the expected sloppy track. the horse is bred to love the slop, had run well in it before, and i think the horse displayed good energy throughout the race because he was so comfortable running over the wet surface. i could be making a big mistake by attributing the good ark derby performance to the track condition, but that is exactly what i am doing. so i am left backing up pro prado a bit when he stretches to 10f, and i think the trip will also cost him a few lengths. taking into account the trip, i see pro prado running in \"3-5\" range on derby day, and i think that might be just a bit too slow to hit the board. i have noticed some people starting to get positive on this horse (haskin will write a positive piece on bloodhorse.com tomorrow), and at 25-1, i guess there are some good reasons. i will not be using pro prado in this year\'s KD though.

note: there are a few horses i will move up in case of a wet track. pro prado is one of them. i will address this closer to race time though.



Post Edited (04-26-04 19:17)