Preakness Weather

[P-Dub]

pizzalove Wrote:
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> Hard to find good value in this joke of a field.
> Dortmund looks like a horse that could use a rest
> and maybe a better miler.  Sure he will be
> sacrificed Saturday regardless.  Dortmund will
> work for lead and then again try to back up.  Sure
> hope he is not successful.  Don\'t want to see
> another joke triple crown race were only 3 of 18
> jockeys took note of how the track was playing.
> Same three all the way around.  It is a shame our
> triple crown has come to this.  With that being
> said I will root hard for anyone except AP because
> I don\'t want to spend three weeks listening to
> triple crown talk for a horse like this.  Still
> say first race claimers on derby day ran faster.
> No proof of course on changing track.  Hard to
> measure effect of ground loss when they are
> walking first half of race.  It seems like we will
> do anything here to get a triple crown winner.
>
> I don\'t know what to say about this race.  I
> really don\'t.  Sad that we are discussing jockey
> tactics as only point of interest.
>
> This race would have triple the interest if an
> Upstart or Materiality ran.  Both could of been
> major contenders here.  I hope nothing is wrong
> with Upstart.  I loved him since the Holy Bull.  I
> was hoping that they would of rested him after FOY
> and went straight to derby.  From watching the
> race it was clear that he did not like dirt in his
> face(u would think they would of known this).  I
> still say had he been more forwardly placed we
> could of had a different result.  I also wish he
> was running in the Belmont.  I will root for this
> horse and hope he kicks ass in the breeders cup or
> something.  Got to see him in Florida and I
> thought he was gorgeous.  Looks on TV like he even
> got more chiseled since FEbruary.  
>
> Anyway lets root for a Preakness upset of any
> kind.  Want a super horse to be the one who gets
> the triple crown.


- This isn\'t the first Preakness with a smaller field.  Was Spectacular Bid a joke because he only beat 4 other horses?? A couple of them were pretty good, but just a 5 horse field.  Sometimes the Preakness is a really good race, sometimes not.

- We get the Derby pace thing. It happens.  You think this is the only race where the pace was slower than anticipated??  Some didn\'t break, some weren\'t capable, some didn\'t fire. Circumstances, not conspiracy.

-  AP has done nothing wrong, and has shown to be a high quality horse.  I have no idea why you are so down on him, or don\'t think he\'s worthy of being a TC winner.  If he wins Saturday, winning the Belmont won\'t be easy at all.  Fresh horses, fast horses, he will earn it in NY. His Derby was earned, not given to him.

- If you want to root against this colt, why on earth would you want him to lose Saturday?? Good luck trying to construct tickets trying to beat him, and making money.  Wouldn\'t it be a better idea to have him win, setting up the usual \"bet against the horse going for the TC\", with the requisite overlays that happen every time??

\"I will root hard for anyone except AP because I don\'t want to spend three weeks listening to triple crown talk for a horse like this.\"  

This horse is fast and talented. A horse like that would be deserving. I have no idea why you hate this horse.

[Tavasco]

P-Dub it is like Deja Vu. Much the same last year knocking CC and before that I\'ll have Another & Bodemeister.

Secretariat beat five! The competition stays home because they know more than the arm chair quarterbacks.  Phletch, it has been said, more than once, he is a crack businessman and fourth pays?

Only the names have changed!

[miff]

Official Preakness Stakes Post Positions
1 AP
2 Dortmund
3 Mr. Z
4 Danzig Moon
5 Tale of Verve
6 Bodhisattva
7 Divining Rod
8 Firing Line

[phil23]

This makes the race even less of a good betting proposition doesn\'t it? Fave gets the shortest way home and FL out wide likely to lose ground.

Hope he wins by 4L and runs another -3 so we can get him at Elmont.

[miff]

Post 1 is 1-55 in Preakness since 1960.

[phil23]

How many of those were odds on faves? Those kind of post stats are deceiving unless you work the odds each horse went off at into them.

This isn\'t the derby where it\'s a 20 horse crush of horses with the 1 post basically pointed into the fence. It\'s an 8 horse field.

I\'ll take the shortest trip every time, especially with his main rival drawn on the far outside.

[miff]

No filter on who the 55 were but a reasonable sample.

[phil23]

And that\'s not to say I like him. I just think it makes the race less of a good betting proposition. Lots of other better races this weekend...specifically that pimolico special if the ML\'s hold up...which looks unlikely since both Tap and Albano are scratching. But hopefully people will bet the big names still left in the race and forget about the local.

[Strike]

miff Wrote:
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> Post 1 is 1-55 in Preakness since 1960.

Would be interesting to know what Baffert\'s instructions will be. The race strategy will be his alone -- and not the owner\'s or jockey\'s call. He won\'t want their trips to compromise each other but also won\'t want to overtly set it up for AP -- and then have another horse win.

I hate the rail at any distance. I know it is the shortest way around and many trainers demand to stay there (Frankel) but it is a tough place to be for a young horse. FL drew perfectly in my opinion.

[miff]

AP has no option but to send,assuming a clean break.

[KK4510]

Let\'s see, Garcia breaks from the gate and makes a right turn taking out Mr Z and forcing everyone wide, kind of opposite of what he did with Bayern in the Breeders Cup Classic. This leaves plenty of room for AP along the rail for a ground saving trip while FL gets forced three wide all around. Not to say thats how it will happen, but I doubt Garcia on Dortmund will be anywhere near AP.

[sekrah]

Strike Wrote:
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> miff Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Post 1 is 1-55 in Preakness since 1960.
>
> Would be interesting to know what Baffert\'s
> instructions will be. The race strategy will be
> his alone -- and not the owner\'s or jockey\'s call.
> He won\'t want their trips to compromise each other
> but also won\'t want to overtly set it up for AP --
> and then have another horse win.
>
> I hate the rail at any distance. I know it is the
> shortest way around and many trainers demand to
> stay there (Frankel) but it is a tough place to be
> for a young horse. FL drew perfectly in my
> opinion.

Agree. I love this draw for FL.

Zayat might regret selling Z. I think he\'s got enough speed to get to the front if DWL wants to send him and kick some dirt in the favorites face.

[sekrah]

Kaleem Shah doesn\'t give a damn about Zayat, I promise you. If Garcia pulls a ridiculous stunt like that with Dortmund, Baffert just lost a major client.

[Tavasco]

That would have been my Sire Tabasco Cat In 1994. Trained by D.W. Lukas.

Bally Ache in 1960.
Hill Prince 1950
Capite 1949
Whirlaway 1941
War Admiral 1937
High Quest 1934
Gallant Fox 1930
Watervale 1911 (owned by August Belmont) of Big Sandy Fame.
Flocarline 1903

[boston]

Day-to-day racing at Pimlico certainly doesn't indicate that post 1 is bad. In races around two turns at the current meeting, horses breaking from the rail have won 24 percent of the time — by far the best rate for any post position.

Andy Beyer