No repect for Came Home

[MO]

Has anyone considered that Came Home was not 100% before the Santa Anita Derby? That he came out of the race with a bit of a tepmerature? That he still won despite all the negatives going into that race? That he is 6 for 7? Tossing the SA Derby, he is the fastest horse? That he is training very well at CD? I seriously doubt he will be higher than 5-1 at post time. McCarron in a big money race is not to be overlooked.

Came Home is one of 3 dual qualifiers. The other 2 are Johannesburg and Saarland.

I think there is a lot more to knock on those two horses than there is on Came Home.

And so, my preliminary picks in order are Came Home, Johannesburg. Saarland will be no better than third, possibly worse. Have not yet recieved the TG Derby figs which may alter my exotic wagering stratagy, but despite the past few years, the dual qualifier system is a mathamatically and statistically sound formula for predicting the winner of the derby.

I might add that this crop stinks real bad, but given the past few years, thats expected. Last year I said the same about that crop and predicted than NONE would be around as 4 year olds. I wasn\'t far off.
However, I hope for a safe trip for all and look forward to the discussion and the race.

MO

[kev]

Came Home line is really really bad. Two things.

1. Has a backward moving line.

2. Has a \"bi\" mark for his last race. Only one horse in the past 20 years has ever won or ran second in the derby with a bi-bo mark in the 3yr line. On TG numbers. bi/bo is known for horses have problems (see Repent).

[MO]

Backward line could be because he he was having the minor health problems stated earlier. He ain\'t training like he\'s gonna keep backing up!

BO is much more serious than BI. BO means serious problems with legs. BI is sign of a tired horse, but not necessarily injury, though it could be.

I have seen cases where horses have won next start despite last race being noted BI or BO. Not often, mind you, but it does happen.

I have no confidence in the rest of the field, and had Repent been sound and entered here, he\'d be my pick. I am punting with Came Home, but only because of the reasons stated above and in previous post.

All the best.

MO

[Michael D.]

     think the odds will be closer to 10-1 than 5-1, he does not run like he wants to go a mile and a quarter. but if you think this year\'s three year olds are that bad, I guess betting the best big race jockey in the world at 10-1 is not a bad bet.... good luck !!

[derby1592]

Mark,

Let me preface this by saying that I think Came Home is a really good horse. You have to respect all those daylight wins. I think he will get a lot of respect as people start looking at the DRF and seeing 1st by 3, 1st by 2, 1st by 4, etc. I think he could be a great horse at 1 mile or less. However, he is the one likely favorites (has to be one of the top 3 public picks at post time) that I will compeletely toss.

His line looks horrible. He paired two very fast races as a 2yo and then reacted. He then comes out and sizzles off the layoff (his trainer is THE best layoff trainer in the US)and has gotten progressively slower with each race as the distances stretch out. You will not find this line on any previous Derby winner.

You mentioned the temperature as an excuse. Well, he spiked a temp after his previous race as well. In my mind, that indicates a reaction to the stress of the race and is yet another negative to go along with his BI and incredibly slow stretch run in the SA Derby.

With regards to being a DQ, he qualifies on dosage and 2yo brilliance but his breeding is far from Derby Caliber (and I am sure that Dr. Steven Roman the inventor of dosage would agree). His broodmare sire has an average winning distance of 6.9 furlongs. You will not see anything close to that in any previous derby winner. Add that to his sire AWD which is mediocre at best and you conclude he has very little chance to win the Derby from a breeding angle. Finally, he is bound to be pressing a hot pace, which will only magnify his distance limitations.

I like the horse. He is brilliant and has great connections but he will not be on any of my tickets unless his odds are much higher than I expect.

Good luck to all.

Chris

[MO]

Chris,

What was Came Home\'s figure in the SA Derby?

MO

[derby1592]

Mark

3.75

Chris

[MO]

OK.

So we have a pattern that can\'t be called an 0-2-x.

I\'m no expert on TG patterns, but this is how i view his overall record;

breaks maiden 1st time out. good sign.

improves 9.25 points and pairs it on 6 weeks rest. good sign.

bounces off cross country ship and 8 weeks rest. 8 weeks off suggests a physical problem, but the bounce was still a better figure than his worst figure to date. So i see it more positively than negatively.

3 months later, he runs a career top, 4 points better than his best.

next start is 1st try at 2 turns and he wins by daylight with just a slight bounce (1.25 points).

In the derby, while not 100% cranked up for it, he wins by daylight with, granted,  a slower figure than his previous race, but still faster than his best at 2 years old.
I view this as positive developement. Even when he\'s off, he\'s fast and consistant.

He gets 4 weeks rest, ships to CD and works faster than he did before SA derby. He clearly loves CD and clearly is over any illness. If he gets back to his top, which is not impossible, he wins by daylight.

One last thing: didn\'t his sire, Gone West, sire a Belmont Stakes winner?
Remember, these 3 yo horses are typical of the way horses are bred today: speed, no stamina. Thunder Gulch, Real Quiet, Charismatic and Monarchos weren\'t supposed to win on breeding either, so I think that angle is not as useful as it was in the past when really good horses were running.
Interesting discussion, though. Keep it comin!

MO

[tread]

Mark, your statement about this year\'s crop \"stinking real bad\" is ridiculous.  What are you basing this statement on, your expert observations of the prep races?  Do you even use the Thorograph figures?

I think if you look at the derby package sheets, you will see that the average (and absolute best) figures run by this year\'s crop are FAR better than any other year\'s, with the exception of last year.  Add up the number of figures of 2.75 or less run by the contenders this year.  I think you will find many more this year than in past years (except last year).

Sorry, but I just don\'t understand that statement.  And I still don\'t understand your \"Thunder Gulch is a fraud\" statement, but oh well.....

[derby1592]

Mark,

You are right Commendable had Gone West as his sire and he won the Belmont, however, he had pretty good bottom-side breeding and got away with a turtle-like pace in the race. Came Home is weakest on the bottom-side and I don\'t think they will be going 49 or 50 and change for the half in the Derby.

I would say Came Home\'s pattern is an 0-2-4 rather than an 0-2-X. The difference being that I think his last race was an effort and possibly even a \"last gasp.\"

Maybe in the Derby he could draw an inside post and save ground and either slow down the pace or suddenly show the ability to lay well off a hot pace and maybe even find the closing kick that he lacked in the SA Derby and win it all or at least hit the board. I would say there is about a 3 or 4 percent chance of that happening. At the likely odds that doesn\'t make him very playable.

Chris

[MO]

Yes I do use them. These horses, like last years crop (which also stunk by the way) run fast as 2 and 3 year olds for a race or two, maybe three.  Good horses keep running fast races throughout their career.
Last really good crop was that of 1987. The Crop from 1997 was pretty good. Other than that, names like Secretariat, Buckpasser, Dr Fager, Personal Ensign,Seattle Slew, Affirmed, Alysheba conjur up the image of a great horse. None of this years crop will ever be compared to those, since there is no comparison, thats why this crop stinks.
However, they will load 20 horses into the gate for the Kentucky Derby. These are the best we have now, so when I look at the field, I do not see much to beat. You have 2 mutliple grade 1 winners in the field (both having a win at 9f), and they each have only 2 G1 wins. Johannesburg has one and the rest couldn\'t qualify to win any recent derby using that criteria.
Harlans Holiday- can\'t see an offspring of Harlan winning at 10f. Haven\'t seen the TG figs for all yet, so i reserve the right to change my mind, but I don\'t really see anything in there including HH, Johannesburg or Saarland scaring me off Came Home. Now if Came Home were running against great horses, he\'d be a throw out as well.
Came Home will get my bet, but I won\'t tap out and won\'t be surprised if he gets beat, just dissappointed.

MO

[MO]

Chris,

what is your interpretation of an 0-2-4 as opposed to an 0-2-x?

CH\'s 2nd start was only 1.25 points slower than his previous top, so can\'t understand how you arrive at 0-2-4.

MO

[westcst]

I agree that Came Home is \"underrated\".  He IS 6 for 7 and is very game.  I also think the SA Derby runner-up Easy Grades is being overlooked.  His pattern resembles Saarland and I think the wide/premature move vs. CH in the SA Derby was the reason he hung the last 1/8.  I\'m looking for a better timed ride instead of trying to get him to make a run for 5/8 of a mile like last time going 3 or 4 wide.  At a possible 25 or 30-1 I think he is a must use in the exotics.

[derby1592]

Mark,

You are right. It is an 0-1-4 which is even worse. Three straight efforts, with a very weak trend. You can probably pencil in the X for the next race given the increased distance, increased pace pressure and the current condition line. I just don\'t see him running a good race but maybe he will fool me; however, of the real fast horses going into the Derby(those that have already run close to a \"0\"), he looks like the weakest of the bunch to me.

Just one other note and then I will leave Came Home alone. Remember I do think he is a good horse just not a Derby winner. I don\'t pay a lot of attention to the final Derby works but the last thing I would want to see from Came Home is to have him firing bullets in his works and on the muscle in his gallops. To have any chance at all, he has to relax early in the race.

Chris

[nunzio]

Mark,

Distance (1 1/4) ?

Nunzio