I know this won't be a popular comment but I am afraid..

TGJB · April 30, 2015, 01:20:51 PM

Pdub-- that one made me laugh, remembering handicapping with Richie Schwartz back in the Ragozin office. He would say \"but if you put your thumb over this one (or two or three)\" and pick out what as far as I could tell were random ones to disregard.

justwin · April 30, 2015, 01:21:26 PM

he was sick. I put a line through it and am using him.

mjellish · April 30, 2015, 01:56:17 PM

As I recall Sek, you said if Animal Kingdom wins the KY Derby you would retire.

jack72906 · April 30, 2015, 02:05:26 PM

Ha...that\'s almost as good as me telling this very drunk couple in gold room at Arlington that I kind of liked AK and she said...(slurring of course)..\"WHAT?!? Animal Kingdom!?!? I would never bet that horse! It\'s the worst ****ing ride at Disney World ever!\"

They were nowhere to be found after the race

sekrah · April 30, 2015, 02:48:08 PM

mjellish Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> As I recall Sek, you said if Animal Kingdom wins
> the KY Derby you would retire.

Probably did say that. It was an extremely poor read. The horse made more sense than I gave him credit for at the time. In the past I\'ve been a victim of attaching myself too early to either love or hate a horse before the sheets were even looked at. I think I\'m in a better place as a capper than I was 5 years ago.

NoCarolinaTony · April 30, 2015, 02:51:18 PM

You must tend to pick the wrong boxes to check in both handicapping horses and handicapping life choices.... Richiebee what do you think my friend? Best betting race in years....

Michael D. · April 30, 2015, 03:08:12 PM

sekrah Wrote:
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> Bouncing back so quickly after that TB Derby to
> set a new top, I think you can almost cross that
> poor effort out. He\'s only moved 5 pts forward
> from his two year old number. He\'s eligible for
> another couple more.

I\'ve gone back and forth with this one a million times. I decided the Danzig over Mr P just wasn\'t right for a mile and a quarter, then saw the draw and probable pace scenario and put him right back in there. Julian will find some trouble, but a length or two is a small price to pay for sitting inside about 10 back while letting the others battle it out. Still undecided though.

Sandreadis · April 30, 2015, 04:19:18 PM

Michael D, Would you care to comment on Firing Line\'s pedigree to get the Derby distance?

Thanks.

Firing Line\'s Sunland track Record lasted 3 weeks, broken by a NM Bred going 4 wide.

http://www.drf.com/news/proceed-sets-track-record-winning-sunland-handicap

Michael D. · April 30, 2015, 04:50:14 PM

Sandreadis Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Michael D, Would you care to comment on Firing
> Line\'s pedigree to get the Derby distance?
>
>
> Thanks.
>
>
> Firing Line\'s Sunland track Record lasted 3 weeks,
> broken by a NM Bred going 4 wide.
>
> http://www.drf.com/news/proceed-sets-track-record-
> winning-sunland-handicap

a bit speedy up top.

dam sire is Red Ransom over Mr Prospector. interesting that the 3rd dam of the dam sire was bred to Mr P to get the 2nd dam of BC winner Awesome Again (& Macho Uno). in between that you see strong stamina influences Top Sider and Ack Ack.

2nd dam is Cielo over tons of stamina.

a mile and a quarter? I don\'t know. he\'s not my pick, but the pedigree is probably a touch better than it looks.

jack72906 · April 30, 2015, 05:25:51 PM

Thanks for this Michael. Very helpful.

Michael D. · April 30, 2015, 05:33:33 PM

here\'s what Haskin wrote on Bloodhorse.com:

\"His pedigree remains an enigma, as it seems to be teetering on the edge of a mile and an eighth, with a female family that traces to Forli and the great producer Kamar that could help propel him that extra eighth.\"

jbelfior · April 30, 2015, 05:47:43 PM

This is good stuff MJ. The better division, IMO, was in California this year and winner likely to come from there.
Live unders are Bolo, El K (runs hard every time and solid 2yo foundation) and Far Right (fresh and ready with a healthy pattern and my pick to be the one who improves out of the OP/FG horses).

In the Oaks I\'ll go with 2-4-6 in first leg of Oaks-Derby double.

Btw: if you haven\'t already, get the seminar. Whether you agree with it or not, it\'s better than anything you\'ll get or hear anywhere else.

Good Luck,
Joe B

T Severini · April 30, 2015, 06:03:54 PM

Michael D. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Sandreadis Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
>
> >
> > Firing Line\'s Sunland track Record lasted 3
> weeks,
> > broken by a NM Bred going 4 wide.
> >
> >
> http://www.drf.com/news/proceed-sets-track-record-
>
> > winning-sunland-handicap
>

Pedigree aside, it may be that Sunland slowed down a touch the last three races or so. It certainly was very hot early. Regardless he gave Dortmund all he could handle.

richiebee · April 30, 2015, 07:20:32 PM

Hey NC Tony hope all is well.

Should be a great betting race, preceded by two solid days of stakes races, with
some of the faster colts available at decent odds. JB\'s \"obsession\" has to be
taken into account, and let me echo those who have commented on the value offered
by the Oaks/Derby seminar.

Hope your son is enjoying the Mets resurgence.

NoCarolinaTony · May 01, 2015, 12:35:05 AM

Richie

Can you believe my son graduates from Penn State week from Derby Day!

My home is almost ready to move back into after last years fire on Mothers Day!!

Been a heck of a year trying to regroup so the Metsies resurgence has also added to the anticipation of more better things to come.

Yes TGJB seminar spooked me as my line of thinking was so close to his, was disappointed in that there may be more money on those horses now had he not done that... Maybe I can read sheets after all...

Let\'s Go Mets!!

NCTony