I know this won't be a popular comment but I am afraid..

[covelj70]

...that this Derby fell apart on us.

What once looked like a terrific race with a deep and talented field with many horses coming into the race the right way has hit a bit of a speed bump.

So many of the good horses in this race either aren\'t doing well going into the race or drew poorly or both.  

There\'s some logic to the idea that horses that ran big races in their final prep didn\'t come out of those races the right way (i.e. bigger you run, the tougher the race is on the horses).  With that said, in the years I have been paying close attention, I don\'t ever remember so many horses a) staying on the wrong lead in their Churchill gallops 2) wearing bell boots, 3) having walk days so close to the race, 4) washing out during schooling, etc

There are always 1 or 2 that this is the case for but this year, almost every good horse in the race that looks likely to get the distance falls into one of these categories and the ones that don\'t drew terribly.

I of course could be wrong and that\'s what makes the game so great (i.e. I think one thing and T Sev. seems like no matter what I have to say he\'s going to take the opposite point of view) and that\'s what makes the game great.  We can all put our money up and see how it all shakes out

problem for me with this Derby is that the only horses I think

1) are fast enough
2) can get the distance
3) are training well
4) drew well

are the two favorites and therefore this Derby became pretty much unplayable for me.

I will focus on the vertical wagers and hope to be alive (which I am usually not) to the two Baffert horses but I just can\'t bring myself to put down the kind of wager I would usually make on this race just to play the two favorites given that none of the other horses fit all the criteria that I use.

Hope I\'m wrong and it turns out to be a terrific race but I won\'t be making big plays on this one given how everything turned out

thanks to everyone for all of the great thoughts and ideas on the board, always the best time of year here and I appreciate the banter very much

good luck to all!

[bellsbendboy]

Certainly agree, but they still have to run the race.  Assume you meant horizontal plays to the Bafferts. bbb

[covelj70]

I meant pk 4 and pk 6

[sekrah]

Couldn\'t disagree more. Every horse that makes sense on TG are looking very good in training and none of them got a death sentence in the draw.

The only contender one has to downgrade this week is Materiality, and a reaction to that Fla Derby effort was always a real possibility. There are a handful of great looking horses that\'ll be overlays Saturday. I cannot wait!!!!

[ajkreider]

Not sure why people who like AP are discounting Upstart.  He appears to be in good enough form.  If you like AP in the 18 hole, doesn\'t Upstart just have to stay on his hip all the way around?  He will only get hung wide if AP gets hung wide - and then you toss them both. He doesn\'t have to worry about Far Right coming over top.

[sekrah]

ajkreider Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Not sure why people who like AP are dvCard oiscounting
> Upstart.  He appears to be in good enough form.
> If you like AP in the 18 hole, doesn\'t Upstart
> just have to stay on his hip all the way around?
> He will only get hung wide if AP gets hung wide -
> and then you toss them both. He doesn\'t have to
> worry about Far Right coming over top.


Upstart, Firing Line, and even Danzig Moon have real shots to win this race. There\'s a couple other bombers who can get a piece. This is setting up fantastically.  The fear people have of Dortmund is mindblowing. This horse wouldn\'t have deserved 4-1 in last year\'s weaker Derby IMO, so what the hell is everybody afraid of with this one? I think people need to spend less time reading press clippings and more time studying the figures.

[smalltimer]

Jim,
Great, honest comments once again.  One of the really intriguing things about this or any Derby is the hand-wringing leading up to the draw, and then the elation or misery when a key horse is impacted negatively.
With me, ignorance is bliss.  I watch the start of the Derby every year, and this year will likely follow the same pattern.
The connections are giving instructions to the riders...get out clean, don\'t get shuffled back, hustle the horse out, don\'t get caught wide, don\'t move too early, blah, blah, blah.
Then the gate opens and 2-3 areas of the gate collapse in or out, that horse that needed to be on the front end is buried in 14th place 5 steps out of the gate, and the horse that can\'t get the distance is wide on the turn.  In 30 seconds you know your goose is already cooked
The reason my ignorance on post position is bliss, the gate opens and bad things normally happen.
Its like the great American Philosopher Mike Tyson once said, \"Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.\"
That\'s how I approach it.  
Have a great one!!  I plan to!!

[rhagood]

After that potential Derby winning number in Jan., he has not run straight in the stretch (was at Gulfstream for both). When he switches over to his right lead down the lane he exaggerates and ends up leaning in on horses in conjunction with the inside horses coming out both times.  Not the best way to going into the biggest race of his life with the largest field.  Two knocks for me for both but both related.

[rhagood]

Given all the potential problems, arguably the best horse has won 4 out of the last 8.  All but California Chrome had far outside posts to stay clear of the chaos.

[PapaChach]

A glass half-full way of looking at it might be that by using your ability to spot how these horses are doing, you have a huge edge on the crowd who are not aware that a bunch of the logical contenders seem off; you\'re using your knowledge to eliminate a number of those contenders from your tickets, and now it\'s now more likely that some 35-1 shot who happens to be thriving (if such an entrant exists) crashes the gimmick party. For argument\'s sake let\'s say one of the favorites doesn\'t get the best of trips but still runs well and winds up 3rd or 4th, the other favorite wins, and a big price runs say 2nd. AP over a 35-1 over Dortmund, or even AP/Dort/Big Balloons will still likely pay well with tons of money being spent by the crowd on major contenders who are doing poorly. You could then really hammer a limited number of combos rather than spreading. Just a thought...

[TGJB]

That\'s an interesting question if someone wants to do the work. How often does a horse run the best figure and lose?

[miff]

Easy answer, far more often if his figs are ground loaded, far less often if the horse is a tactical/speed horse that saves ground...running styles dictate that answer for the most part.

[Polamalu43]

Jim, thank you, as always, for posting and keeping the board up-to-date on what is going on.  Much respect for you and your eye.  In other words, I certainly respect and take it serious as to your observations.

Enjoy the day Saturday and take care!

[TGJB]

I\'m talking specifically about the Derby, and the question is answerable. And if you don\'t look at ground, by definition the winner gets the best figure.

[mjellish]

I understand what you mean Jim.  But I\'m willing to play against AP here.  He\'s got foot issues and seems to train well, and everyone thinks he can run faster than he has if asked.  But tend to think that if he isn\'t all that and the foot really is a problem, he might get exposed here.  A 20 horse field filled with the most talented 3 year olds I have ever seen in one group is a whole different kettle of fish than he has faced before.  And when someone looks him in the eye and runs with him at the mile marker, we\'re going to find out if he can run any faster when asked to.  I don\'t think he can.  But if I\'m wrong oh well.  He would be a pretty strong bounce candidate in the Preakness.

Dortmund a whole different story.  I know that isn\'t going to be popular on this board.  I understand why people like Sek don\'t like him.  But the figure is only part of the story.  In essence, by looking at him that way you are punishing him because he only won his last race by 6 instead of 16.  So by that reasoning they would like him more if the Jock had beaten the hell at him in the SA Derby.  For me, his last work was more impressive to than AP\'s.  He\'s won at CD and seems to love the surface.  He\'s galloping like he owns the place.  I think he gets the distance easily.  He absolutely intimidates his competition and shrugs them off.  He\'s tenacious and will fight back.  And if he doesn\'t get stopped he\'s going to be hell in the lane.

Wish I saw it otherwise but I don\'t.  I\'m still playing around a few ways to structure a bet, but I am going probably going to key Dort and toss AP on my serious tickets.  That will not be a popular viewpoint on this board.  But so be it.

Only comment on the draw is that I think Carpe and Mat have to send now at least to establish position, which I\'m pretty sure they were planning to do anyway.  

And my guy says Mat does not look good in his gallops at all, to back up what you\'ve been saying although it\'s contrary to some of the stuff I\'ve read online.  As they say, beauty is in the eye of the beholder but I tend to drink a lot.