Getting nervous about Materiality

[covelj70]

Never good when a horse gets hot a few days in a row and then stays on wrong lead in a gallop.

breeze was good but not great and doesn\'t seem to have come out of it too well.

clearly something bugging the horse.  Maybe resolves itself before Sat but either way, don\'t think I can key this horse at this point

it\'s too bad

I really liked him

[boston]

A quote from the great one.

\"Horses and strawberries can go bad in a day.\"  - Charlie Whittingham

[TGJB]

Wow.

[covelj70]

I won\'t be throwing the horse out entirely because the most important lesson I ever learned about the Derby came from Ice Box

I was all over Super Saver on top but had a big and deep exacta but throw out Ice Box because the horse literally came limping off the track the day before the race and could barely make it back to his stall.  Everyone around me commented on how terrible he looked.

He then proceeded to run the race of his life and was hardly ever heard from thereafter.

So, I won\'t be throwing the horse out because of my Ice Box experience but I am looking for a new key horse for Saturday.

[TGJB]

A lot of people didn\'t love CC last year either.

I\'m telling you, there\'s a lot of noise to wade through for this race every year that you don\'t have to deal with for any other. I\'ve seen some things-- even here-- that make me roll my eyes.

[joemama]

ShamWow!

[covelj70]

you\'re absolutely right that CC wasn\'t moving great before last years Derby but

a) he didn\'t run anywhere near fast enough as someone will need to to win on Saturday, and

b) he just wasn\'t moving great, he wasn\'t washed out in the mornings and staying on the wrong lead.  

being stiff (which CC was) and showing signs that something could be bugging you (which Mat is) are in totally different leagues.

[TGJB]

My point is only that you\'re right not to throw out fast horses at prices. For once we agree.

As you know, I tossed CC last year. The CC that won, not the one that ran second at 200-1.

[covelj70]

hah, funny

we agree on a lot, it\'s just more fun to get your blood pressure up by focusing on the things we don\'t agree on

lol

[Polamalu43]

Jim:

Thanks for cementing what I\'ve heard as well.

This certainly adds to those that stated the same thing the last 2 days that were at the track.  He doesn\'t look himself.  They stated washy look and has gotten hot the last 2 mornings.

[T Severini]

covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
well,

I watched a breeze from four days ago that clearly had him looking good. No sweat noted anywhere. If you watch it, note how high the exercise rider is up in the saddle, while the workmate\'s rider is down in speed posture. It looks like Larry Jones riding Eight Belle\'s, it\'s really quite comical.

Note also how the big exercise rider\'s foot comes out of the right stirrup on the near turn and again right at gear down time. Not sure if that signifies a problem or not, but it\'s a bit odd. Alone I\'d pay no significance to it, because to my eye the rider is trying to gear him down throughout and he\'s clearly on the proper lead in the stretch.

Now you\'re saying he came out to gallop today and looked sweated up and never got off the right lead? Well, Mike Welsh thought he galloped strong and a horse that isn\'t tired won\'t always change leads.

If you\'ve lost courage, that\'s your prerogative, but please don\'t come back after the race and say \"I stuck with him\". Like Dosage, the Apollo bubble is bound to burst. If you\'re gonna beat TGJB at his own game you gotta take him out when he\'s adamant about a trend. Pletcher leaves a lot of horse in the major Prep Races, but a lot of horse will one day overcome him.

Materiality 4/24

> Never good when a horse gets hot a few days in a
> row and then stays on wrong lead in a gallop.
>
> breeze was good but not great and doesn\'t seem to
> have come out of it too well.
>
> clearly something bugging the horse.  Maybe
> resolves itself before Sat but either way, don\'t
> think I can key this horse at this point
>
> it\'s too bad
>
> I really liked him

[TGJB]

\"Take me out\"? Who are you exactly?

[fedup]

T,Sev.If you\'re planning on \"taking him out\" can u please wait til after he posts the seminar.I\'m gonna be chugging down Red Bull all day coming off a 24hr shift at work,and like an 8yr old on xmas eve anticipating his gifts,I won\'t be able to sleep until I read the big guys comments on one heck of an interesting oaks-derby.....If you wanna take him out after,feel free,but I have to warn you,while reading what I think was the Barry Irwin-thorograph marriage article a few weeks back my wife glanced at the computer,saw TGJB\'S mug,and said \"I wouldn\'t wanna run into that guy in a dark alley\".

[joemama]

If you take him out make sure he\'s allowed to order anything on the menu.

[richiebee]

... I have my suspicions...