Historical figures - top finishers question

[shanahan]

Has anyone done any research on the top 4 finishers historical figs and what the range might be?
Before I go through the exercise, thought I\'d ask if anyone has already drawn it up.
For example, if the winner is usually a neg 2 or better, is there any consisten range for the next 3 spots?  Is anything > 3 pretty much out of the $$$?

[jcipoletti]

I did that before last year\'s Derby (1998-2013), just added in the 2014 figs.

1st: -0.04 avg; 2.25 Std dev
2nd:  1.28 avg; 1.30 Std dev
3rd:  2.56 avg; 1.47 Std dev
4th:  2.76 avg; 1.63 Std dev

Only 3 winners have run higher than a 1.5
Only 3 2nd place runners have run higher than a 2.5
Only 3 3rd place runners have run higher than a 2.5
8 4th place finishers have run higher than a 2.5; 6 of them ran higher than a 3

Hope this helps.

[big18741]

Not exactly what you are looking for but going thru 18 years of data:

7 of Derby winners ran a new top- average improvement was 3.25 pts
10 of winners paired
Smarty the only Derby winner to run an off race.

9 of 2nd finishers ran a new top-ave improvement was 2.75 pts
8 paired
Bode the only 2nd finisher to run an off race.

0 show horses ran a new top-which seems odd.
12 paired
5 off
Afleet Alex the only X to get in the tri or super

2 ran new tops to get in the bottom super
10 paired
7 0ff

Dead heat for 4th in 2006 which illustrates the importance of ground loss in this race.

Jazil saved all the ground running a 3.75
Bro Derek maybe the widest trip ever in a Derby a -0.5

[TGJB]

Don\'t know what year they put in the point system but pretty sure that affected the percentage of tops-- pushed harder earlier to qualify, less tops in the Derby. Should have got into that in the seminar, too late now. If I make Paul change anything he\'ll quit.

[joemama]

Think the point system has been in just the last 2 years.  Favorites won both years.

[boston]

This will be the third year of the point system.  Therefore, only 2 years of data to go on.  It would be hard to make any generalizations off 2 years.

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/news/2012/06/14/derby-field-be-set-new-point-system-not-graded-earnings

[sekrah]

boston Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> This will be the third year of the point system.
> Therefore, only 2 years of data to go on.  It
> would be hard to make any generalizations off 2
> years.
>
> http://www.kentuckyderby.com/news/2012/06/14/derby
> -field-be-set-new-point-system-not-graded-earnings


I wouldn\'t even dare making a generalization off of 10 years of data.

[TGJB]

I mis-spoke. Not point system, qualifying system, whether earnings or points. Don\'t know what year that started. Both caused horses to be pushed harder earlier.

[boston]

The article stated graded stakes earnings began in 1986.