Firing Line

[Fairmount1]

In his last three races, FL has been fairly close or right on the pace.  My guess is they will want him in a similar type position headed into the first turn.    

Maybe I\'m being a bit picky but does anyone else feel that he breaks just a touch slow in each of those 3 races?  The thought being that depending upon who is on each side of him or if he draws an inside post it could cost him a realistic chance.

His first two races he was further back with Smith aboard and was off slow in his debut.  He finsihed 2nd and 1st in those two sprint races so maybe he will be fine a bit further back but I doubt that is the trip the connections are envisioning.

[big18741]

Debut race he appeared to hesitate leaving the gate and was bumped by a horse to his outside.

Second race at Delmar he took a left turn out of the gate.

The next two in small fields he looked a step slow coming out of there.Dortmund broke better than him both times.

Sunland I didn\'t see a head on but he clearly reared up in the gate before settling down.If he broke a little left it didn\'t cost him with the gap to his inside.

[RICH]

The trainer has stated he would love an outside post, to relax and sit and stalk. This horse has a lot of good things going for him, and his TG pattern looks great to me, at this time I feel he is a key horse in the exotics, the pairs, the timing, the 2 race campaign, what\'s not to like

[Tavasco]

A gold star overlay in my book. Not Gary\'s first rodeo. Not Oxbow\'s color but c/b similar grit. Is he a Kentucky Derby quality story?

[richiebee]

I do not wager vertically as a rule, so it is fascinating to me how the
pursuit of superfecta glory brings the entire twenty horse field into the
dialogue.

Ever since glancing at the TGs, I have reduced the field to 6 possible winners
to be used in the horizontals (in no particular order): AmPhar, Dortmund,
Carpe Diem, Frosted, Upstart and Materiality. I am pretty much swimming in the
Kool Aid here as these runners are whom I see as arguably the six fastest
Derby entrants based on the TG data.

In re swimming, one of Detective Lenny Briscoe\'s great lines on Law and Order:
\"Booze. Some people swim in it, other people drown in it.\"

Five of these six are trained by three of the most successful trainers in
North America, even though Baffert hasn\'t won the Derby recently, Pletcher\'s
dismal Derby record invites conspiracy theorizing, and KMac has been an
infrequent participant.

Plus/Minus: (+) Dortmund\'s win at CD as a 2YO; the fact that AmPhar and
Dortmund are early February foals; the fact that Materiality is \"double
whammied\" (No 2YO starts/Pletcher)(I make this a (+) because it will add
value, and these are two \"jinxes\" which will eventually be broken); JB\'s \"buy\"
recommendation on Upstart.

(-): Many more of these. Wide trips experienced by Upstart, Frosted and Carpe
Diem, and the possibility that these wide trips become wider trips in a large
field and depending on post; Upstart missing a wee bit of training; the fact
that Frosted\'s TGs make him look like an AQ main track horse for course; the
notion that AmPhar was beating up on the \"Little Sisters of the Poor\" in his
OP races.

Waiting for the CD folks to draw the Oaks Day card and Derby undercard; from
what I have read Bayern and Judy the Beauty loom short priced favorites on the
Derby undercard returning from last year\'s BC triumphs.

[jbelfior]

Has lost by 3 feet to Dortmund and may be 3x the price. Pedigree and 6 week layoff has him flying way below the radar.
IMO, his 2 races with Dortmund are visually more impressive than anyone else in here.
Free House vs Silver Charm?

Good Luck,
Joe B

[miff]

Joe B,

Only in a year like this would you find a horse 15-1 or more with TG figs and a pattern like his.

Mike

[johnnym]

Watched his race replays and I agree with you.. So know the question he breakes a half step slow is that enough for him to get shuffled back?  Good luck

[jbelfior]

Agree Mike. Firing Line would have been single digits last year and many other years.
The anticipation and excitement of a great race like this is all over this board.Its going to be a great 5 weeks where diehard players who love this game finally get to fully enjoy a great game that has been beaten down by the greed of cheats and corrupt politicians.
As the legendary Mets announcer Bob Murphy used to say during a close game headed to the home ninth.... \" fasten your seat belts.\"

Good Luck,
Joe B

[miff]

Trying to figure how the break will play in a 20 horse field is way too tough for me.Would like FL mid-outside post, never like the inside posts in this race.

[johnnym]

I agree miff however if the horse shows a tendency of breaking slowly is this blip on the radar enough to toss this horse?
With the depth of this years field breaking slow may be just enough for a horse to finish out of the $$
I\'m having a tough time eliminating the underneath horses..
Good luck

[mjellish]

On pattern alone he has a big chance to make a forward move. 2 preps with paired tops and 6 weeks rest, hasn\'t developed much since his 2 yr old top.  He\'s already fast enough as is to contend for the exotics.  And if he moves forward he could win.  Don\'t know how any one else using TG data could look at him based on his sheet here.  

Now at his likely odds I would say he\'s at least a use on your ticket.  But if you want to poke a hole in him I wouldn\'t focus on wondering if he may break a tad slow.  I would worry more about having Lind of David on top of his pedigree, out of a mare that has only thrown one so far and she liked to sprint.  So I could see tossing him based on that if you are trying to narrow down your ticket.

[FrankD.]

MJ,

At 15/1 or more with his numbers he has to be on my tri and super ticket. The depth this year is really playing havoc with who you can leave off the bottom spots. Lots of fast horses and good looking patterns between 15-30/1.

[dskidmore1]

This is a perfect example of a horse that has been better than his pedigree.  And in the KD what do you do we these types.  Not many delievoer;  But he ran twice within a head to Dortmund.  That is impressive.  I am not sure what to do with him.  Will have him in the place and show  postion heavily; but a small win as a saver seems logical.