AP protective plate

[reboundman]

AMERICAN PHAROAH has been racing and training with a plate covering part of the sole of his left front foot, and trainer Bob Baffert on Saturday said he would keep that plate in place for the Kentucky Derby next Saturday, in which American Pharoah is expected to be the favorite.

"I was going to take it off to run him, but he's had it there so long I don't want to change," Baffert said Saturday from California. "He's traveling so well with it."

[Fairmount1]

I\'m not certain if this will affect the public\'s betting on AP or not.  But it sure seems to me the top 8 horses all have significant support among handicappers.  

The more I read and hear, I\'m more and more convinced that AP and Dortmund will be closer to 7-2 and 9-2 respectively rather than 2-1 and 3-1 (or 4-1).  Upstart, Materiality, Carpe Diem, Firing Line, Frosted, Mubtaahij could all be under 20-1 if AP isn\'t 5-2 or under.  I think Upstart could end up being the \"steam\" horse as they say but possibly Mubtaahij also.  But I just can\'t see the foreign horse cracking the top 5 though.  

International Star, likely 9th choice in my mind but who knows, will be right at or above 20-1 I think unless AP (and Dortmund?) go lower.    

After that, start guessing and let\'s see the draw.  Where\'s the value for your wagers?  Loved SoCalMan2\'s post earlier.  Excellent stuff. I\'m still outlining my opinions as mjellish suggested.      


American Pharoah 3.50
Dortmund 4.50
Carpe Diem 9.00
Upstart 10.10
Materiality 11.50
Mubtaahij 13.20
Frosted 13.40
Firing Line 18.20
International Star 20.00
El Kaiber 22.20
Itsaknockout 24.00
Stanford 26.00
Tencendur 32.30
Danzig Moon 40.60
Far Right 42.40
Bolo 46.60
War Story 51.60
Keen Ice 54.50
Ocho Ocho Ocho 57.80
Mr. Z 70.40

[boston]

You are pretty much dead on with the two favorties - Pinnaclesports.com is taking \"Will Win\" and \"Will not Win\" wagers on AP and Dortmund.

AP 3 to 1 to win and 1 to 3.5 not to win.

Dort 4.5 to 1 to win and 1 to 5.5 not to win.

Both horses will be in between these odds with around a 80% confidence interval.  Of course there is very little dumb money betting into these wagers and maybe the public will see things differently.

[miff]

Seems the hype on AP has quieted way down.More in the 3-1 range seems likely.

[jp702006]

It\'s just the calm before the storm:)

[TGJB]

Post Arkansas Derby afterglow, people sat down to handicap.

[jp702006]

Handicapping helps:)  I look forward to the seminar. Personally I\'m leaning towards Frosted at this point until someone talks me off the ledge. I\'m slightly biased at this point though because I have him in pool 1.

[Chas04]

At least you told us your biased because you have Frosted in Pool 1. This is what really irks me with some of these professional opinions.....need to take the bias OUT. Jon White in the Xpressbet Wagering Guide picks International Star 3rd....but he\'s said time & time again on the radio that he has IS in pool 1 and he\'s biased towards him. That was months ago......the race needs to be handicapped today. I am not saying I don\'t like IS....I do a little....but picking him 3rd just because you have a future bet on him is the wrong move. Hope he leads the public down the wrong road with that.

[miff]

AP worked 58.3 at CD this AM, works like a machine all the time, so it\'s just his usual.