3 observations

[covelj70]

1. This is some derby when the 2nd and 3rd choices on the morning line are only the 7th and 8th fastest horses in the race.

2. I just went back to look at the sheets from the 2008 Derby to see if we could make a legitimate Materiality vs. Big Brown comparison and my main takeaway was that I am the world\'s biggest idiot for betting against Big Brown in that race so no one should listen to much of what I have to say on the topic of this or any other Derby.

3. At least I have learned something over the years and the horses I like are two of the fast ones this year.

[Polamalu43]

Where is the link to purchase the data for pre-derby?

[HP]

My Derby record is not great but there was nothing wrong with going against Big Brown.  Fastest horse but very lightly raced at a short price, definitely a bounce candidate.  Some of us remember Talking Man.  California Chrome was not the fastest horse last year and at that price I\'d bet against him again.

[miff]

Like Cali Chrome last year, west coasters Dortmund and Firing Line appear a little slower here vs how racetrack fast they ran, esp FL\'s last.

[joemama]

Right now it is non existent.

[mjellish]

The thing with Big Brown was that he had foot problems that prevented him from training.  Even in the FL Derby his hoof wasn\'t all the way there.  But it held up and it was all the way healed heading into KY Derby, for which he trained lights out.  So it was logical to assume that he may move forward, and he already laid over that field anyway.

Expecting a good discussion of patterns after the TG sheets come out today.  But I think when analyzing these patterns it is important to find out as much as you can about that individual horse to try and put those patterns into context.  For example, Danzig Moon was not 100% in the Tampa Derby as they found out after the race he had an infection.  He was treated for it, had time to recover, began to train forwardly and then moved forward in the Blue Grass.  If you don\'t take that into account you may read his sheet as likely to bounce in the next.  But the Bluegrass effort may have only been the tip of the ice berg and that effort may have set him up to move forward now.  

One to watch closely at least IMO.  My understanding is he\'s quite a handful in the barn right now and has a bit of nasty in him.

[joemama]

This is like trying to pick winners of pro football games.  Got to know the injury report and health status of the probables.

[TGJB]

Pre-entries should be up by tonight.

[Silver Charm]

3 more observations on Big Brown.

1) Those foot issues were well chronicled and provided some uncertainty for those not in the know. Former poster 9n here Mall posted pictures of the horses foot, bleeding with 1/3rd of his hoof ripped off. Not exactly a confidence builder 3 weeks out.

2) He drew the 20 hole. No one had ever won from there and the horse was 2-1.

3) Jockey Desormeaux crashed our pre-Derby Eve party and proceeded to get slammed. Big Browns ownership group (SPECTRE) sent a driver out to retrieve him and put him bed.

Jellish I seem to remember you posting the Super that year which paid $26K WITH Big Brown on top. Only in the Derby can you get this kind of leverage for your money....

[mjellish]

As I recall that photo of his hoof was an old photo, it was not how his hoof looked 3 weeks out before the Derby.  As I recall Ian McKinlay was treating him, and someone else was before that.  And I talked to someone out of that earlier camp who knew exactly how that hoof was doing heading into and out of that ALWN1X race and the FL Derby.  They had written an article about equine hoof repair.  Name escapes me right now.  I know it wasn\'t Tom Curl.

[Rich Curtis]

\"3) Jockey Desormeaux crashed our pre-Derby Eve party and proceeded to get slammed.\"

 Have to be slammed in advance to have any desire to go to that ####ing thing.

[Bet Twice]

Regarding Danzig Moon.....(and take this with a grain of salt because I am far from being a workout expert) but in looking at his work from 4/16, which was in :58, he never gets by his workout partner.  No idea who is partner was but would expect a derby contender to be able to handle his workmate.  Would welcome insight from anyone with more knowledge on the subject.

[bellsbendboy]

Danzig Moon worked on the 18th outside a 4yo filly named Tepin, a Bernstein filly. Tepin came off a six month vacation and scored a 2x win at GP the end of March covering a mile and a sixteenth in a spritely 139 and change! Tepin is nominated to the Distaff turf also on Derby day. bbb

[Electrocutionist]

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/editorial/news/article.cgi?id=48856

[ajkreider]

Agree that he looked awful.  Jock was pushing him, and just wanted to stop at the end.  Saw enough for me to toss completely.