Churchill Works

[ajkreider]

Some weird ones today, by the clock.  Danzig Moom in :58, Internaional Star in 1:01?  Even Keen Ice shaded a minute, and he\'s not exactly a speed horse.

Boodhorse

[louisvilleguy1111]

Not a horse on the Churchill Downs grounds that couldn\'t work a 5 furlong drill in 58 if needed to. Danzing Moon could be a sneaky Tri horse if the speed comes to a stop.

Final time means nothing its all in how they do it and finish up with their gallop out. I would rather have a 1:00 in hand and the rider standing up then a 58 and the rider all out to get the horse to the wire and a poor gallop out after.

Mike Welch knows his stuff when it comes to this just watch for his reviews on DRF.

[mjellish]

What do you think is weird about them.  The times?

Time isn\'t the best judge of a work. It\'s how they do it, and how they come out of it that matters more than anything else.

In Star\'s Case he went 12.48, 25.0, 37.28, 49.49, 101.77 out in a little under 115.  So the work went slower early and faster late (note the last 1/8th faster than the first one) as he drew off from his over matched workmate without being really urged.  Nice work for a late running colt.  Maybe would have liked to have seen him gallop out a little stronger but that\'s always tough to read depending upon stable intent.  Personally, I like to see them gallop out strongly at CD with another extra 1/8 in 12.8 or so when the jock isn\'t asking them to.  If you want to see a video of a near perfect work like this style of slower early, faster late see if you can find one of Animal Kingdom\'s last work before the KY Derby.

Moon\'s work was completely different.  He went 11.42, 22.48, 34.09, 45.68, 58.05 out in 112.2 or so.  So he went fast early and slowed down later, his workmate actually out finished him and he shut down quickly during the gallop out.  This type of fast early, slow later work is more typical of a front running type, which he really isn\'t.  In my experience when a late running horse suddenly shows early speed in the AM it can be a sign that the horse is particularly sharp right now if they still finish strongly, or that the stable is changing tactics and planning to send him.  But in any case you would probably want to see him finish up better than he did.  The splits would seem to indicate that this was a hard stiff work that got him tired.  If you want to see a perfect work like this one of a fast early worker that doesn\'t slow down late see if you can find a video of Barbaro\'s last work before the KD.

Typically, for a race like the KD I would rather see a work like Star\'s than Moon\'s, with a stronger finish than start and a good gallop out to indicate the work didn\'t take much out of him and the horse had lots of energy.  But horses are individuals and they all don\'t work and act the same in the AM.  Some are lazy and need the competition of a race to get them going, and some are great in the morning but get intimidated by other horses and don\'t run as well in the afternoon.

Works just part of the picture.  But have to take the time of he work in the context of how it was accomplished.  And Derby winners typically aren\'t out finished by their workmates.

[miff]

...and from the left coast:

DRF Privman

Dortmund, Firing Line work at SA

Kentucky Derby aspirants DORTMUND and FIRING LINE worked shortly after 7:45 this morning at Santa Anita.

Dortmund broke off first, and went five furlongs in 58.80 seconds under jockey Martin Garcia. He worked alone for trainer Bob Baffert.

Firing Line worked in company under Gary Stevens. He started three lengths back, caught his workmate -- Footstepsinbronze -- at the sixteenth pole and drew away impressive. He  was given an official time of 1:00.40. Trainer Simon Callaghan had him in 59.80 seconds, and galloping out six furlongs in 1:12.

Both were very well. Firing Line has continued to thrive with time between races and looms a major player off  his narrow defeat to Dortmund in the Robert Lewis. Because his prep will have been the least-recent, he has become an overlooked runner in this very competitive Derby, but he\'s doing very well.

\"It was an ideal work,\" said Callaghan, who wanted Firing Line to sit off his company, which he did. This is a colt who is far more  cooperative than he was months ago.

Dortmund was his typically strong self. He\'s not as flashy a work horse as stablamate American Pharoah, for instance, but he went about his business very well today.

Both Dortmund and Firing Line will remain at Santa Anita and have their final Derby works next Saturday before flying to Kentucky next Sunday.

[mjellish]

My guy said Dortmund had workmates.  So Privman must have missed that.

[miff]

Millie Ball:

Dortmund worked 7:45a @ SA using stablemate as target. Outside company jumped in but couldn\'t hang w Dortmund. 5F in 58.4 out 1.11 & change

[ajkreider]

You are of course correct about the way it\'s done, and also about how they look compared to their workmate (which doesn\'t bode well for Itsaknockout, who got out worked by Competetive Edge today).

But :58 is blazing for Churchill. I can\'t recall a faster Derby work ever. Danzig Moon would also have the bullet at 3F.  Other than the top pair who worked together, there were no other works (of 50+) under :59, and only 7 broke a minute. And of of those was the deep closer Keen Ice?  (Birdatthewire was another). Almost a 4 second gap to Star (33rd), a spread you seldom see between Derby runners.

I just don\'t know what to draw from it.  On thing I look for in the times is if the horse takes to the surface.  Are the trainers just trying to put some speed into their horses?  Does Star struggle with the track?

Anyway, we\'ll see another work from all of them.

[TreadHead]

Hard Spun 57.6 monday before the Derby.

[beazley]

One lucky day vanned off in ambulance after work according to courier journal

[Holybull1]

One Lucky Dane out of Derby per Baffert/DRF.  That\'s  at least 3 recent incidents where a Baffert runner has lost a shoe.  Time for a new blacksmith.

[drbillym]

In Dick Powell\'s Handicapping Insights column, he notes how last year, Commanding Curve had a spectacular workout two weeks prior and then a maintenance work the week before.  I think TG had him as a use and he blew up lots of tickets=so you may be right about using Danzig in the ex/tri/super.

[TGJB]

We had him as a lot more than a use. Check the seminar in the Archives.

If he had won it would have been a 376k pick 6 for yours truly.

[swale]

The fastest Derby workout at Churchill I remember is Old Trieste working in 1:09 in 1998.  It helped him to a 10th-place finish.

[louisvilleguy1111]

That was one the fastest colts I ever seen by AP Indy...

[mjellish]

Not many people knew about that workout or how good it was until after the Derby.  But Curve dusted Golden Soul and galloped out like he could go around again, and I liked his LA Derby and his pattern.  He wins and I am still counting my money.  

As I recall people got pretty excited about him in the Belmont last year but I said he was not a Belmont Stakes horse.  That\'s for horses like Drosselmeyer, or It\'s A Knockout or Frammento this year, types that aren\'t athletic and don\'t handle turns well.  Not for nimble horses like Commanding Curve.

Curve is back in training now by the way and looks good in his AM gallops.