FofY figure

[phil23]

95 for Upstart, 90 for Knock, Andy Beyer wise.

But how about TG wise?

Upstart carried 6 more lbs - 1.2 points
Upstart won by 2.5L - 1.5 points
Upstart ran 20 feet further - 1.4 points
-----------------------------
So Upstart ran approx 4.00 points faster than Knock

By same logic, get him approx 7.25 points faster than Frammento & 4.50 points faster than Frosty.

So...what absolute fig fits best?

What if we just give Upstart a pair of his last:
Upstart -2.25
Knock 1.75
Frosty 2.25
Frammento 5.00

Truth to tell, that actually doesn\'t look that bad. The top two basically repeat their tops and Frosted actually pairs his last (+/1 1.00 pt) as well. Frammento moves forward a few points but that certainly seems reasonable given he just ran 3rd in a big prep.


OR...what if we give Frammento just an exact pair of his top. That gives us:
Upstart -1.00
Knock 3.00
Frosty 3.50
Frammento 6.25

Truthfully, for all of them except Knock, I kind of like this better. Does seem stretching things to imagine Upstart just as fast this time as last, and the Frosty and Frammento numbers fit like a glove. Just have to get our head around the idea that Knock regressed off his top, even though he just won (cough cough) a grade 2.

Or...like most things in life...mabye the truth is somewhere in between?

[miff]

Tough surface at GP.Several cool windy days causing the dirt course to be dry/cuppy/laborious.The last 5/16th\'s of the FOY was run in 34.66 which top harness horses shade with regularity.Raw times very slow for all dirt races all day and only the FOY was run at 2 turns.

Beyer has Upstart in the TG 0 range after adjusting for weight and ground vs the rest.A very tough read due to track condition/wind but Upstart did not visually measure up to his last performance given his trip, maybe for the better going forward.

[covelj70]

Upstart was a little washy before the race.

Surprised that isn\'t getting more air time

He wasn\'t like that before the Holy Bull.

Does anyone remember if he was like that before his other races?

Horse has the look of one that was over the top too soon. He was wound up tight as a drum for that comeback race. He looked that way physically and the TG fig backed that up.

Going backwards now both physically and TG wise.

In my opinion, it will be though to get things going back in the right direction in time for May 2nd.

Could be great later in the year though if handled properly as he obviously has super star talent.

[jbelfior]

Numbers and surface aside, visually unimpressive. Second time Upstart bore out on the pull-up. Not shocked by Frosted stopping as many young Tapits do after a mile. Derby winner probably not coming out of the Southeast Region.

Good Luck,
Joe B

[ajkreider]

I seem to recall Violette saying somewhere that Upstart always gets a little hot, but I couldn\'t find the quote.  The whole bit about vanning him around to get used to the trip down from Palm Beach seems telling.

When even the trainer uses words like \"bounce\" before the race, you know the last one knocked him out.

[miff]

Violette trained Readthefootnotes, peaked too soon in 2004 while on the derby trail.Tough to know if Upstart heading the wrong way, as he was lightly trained for this race. It was also apparent,in most other dirt races,that the track was dull and produced very slow late raw times.Surface was brutal, poor maintenance job by track super imo, notwithstanding wind.

[Box]

At first my thoughts were completely in line with yours. However looking at race with benefit of hindsight and considering all things that other posters have mentioned ( wind,surface,only two turn race of day, etc... ) I am now not sure and could see how race is possible in line with His TG figure\'s ... Will be interesting to see how TG assess the race.

[covelj70]

The read the footnotes analogy is the one I have been making as well.

That stretch run against Second of June gutted him and he was never the same.

The kind of tiring track that Violette is complaining about should have worked to his advantage as he had the benefit of a good 2 year old foundation and a recent tough race.

Itsaknockout was running only his 3rd two turn race and first two turn race.

The way upstart has been handled is a good expample of why you really want someone like Nafger or his protege Wilkes to win races like the Derby or Breeders Cup classic. You need to build a horse up to a peak effort on the right day.

Upstart ran his Derby winning race in January. It\'s next to impossible to keep a horse at that level for 3 months.

[mjellish]

At first glance I didn\'t see anyone in this race that looks like they want any part of 1 1/4.  Very quirky surface, but they all staggered home and had about as straight a path as I did last night.  Strange race.  Wasn\'t sure what they were going to do as the 5 didn\'t seem to respond on the turn while really being asked, then suddenly looked like he was going to go right on by but didn\'t, and I don\'t think the trouble was the only cause of that.  Doesn\'t have the mental fortitude to win races yet.  The 50 points will be enough to get him in the big one though.  Frosted quit and almost surely distance challenged.  Agree with others that Upstart is over the top and probably bounces in next, either Fl derby or Wood if he makes it that far.

It will be interesting to see who, if anyone, can be held together for 2 more months after so many of these ran so big so early.  Don\'t remember seeing this many negative tops ever before.  Fast, fast group.

Pletcher getting numbers again in Florida.

[TGJB]

Jim-- first, as you and some others know, I was trying to get someone to buy half of Upstart from October through a week before the Holy Bull. I liked him more than any young horse I\'ve recommended (or even seen) since Rachel. But I agree, the only way running that fast that early in the year would have been a plus would be if he was truly a super horse, unlike anything we\'ve seen before. Which is obviously unlikely. Their best (maybe only) move-- which almost nobody does-- would have been not to run him after the Holy Bull until the Fla Derby, let him be a little short that day and try to go into the TC going forward. But from here they have a real problem-- they\'re not going to train him up to the Derby, and with another start in between he\'s more likely to go back than not, and be going the wrong way into the TC. If he even gets that far, as MJ says.

Re the figure, I\'m not looking forward to doing it. It\'s worth noting that the horse that got put up probably would have run a little faster if he hadn\'t been impeded, making it less likely he paired up.

[covelj70]

JB. You had a great call early on this one being special. If you or a few others had managed him, this horse would be in better shape than he seems to be in now.

violette complaining about a tiring track surface that should have played to his advantage is just ridiculous

[TGJB]

People have to try to explain things they don\'t understand. Reminds me of Borel saying Rachel didn\'t handle the track as well in the Preakness, another one coming off a huge effort and not enough rest. They know the horse didn\'t stride the same way, looks the same physically, so it must be something external.

I\'ll quote again a conversation I had with Michael Dickinson-- we didn\'t agree on much but did about this: they often come out of races where they ran a top looking great, after the next one not so much. I\'m guessing Upstart didn\'t eat up after this one.

[covelj70]

Couldn\'t agree more.

[pizzalove]

Pretty fascinating stuff.  Always in awe of this wonderful board and thorograph.  I want to ask TGJB this:  What can you tell me about Upstarts appearance?  Do you find him to be a superb physical specimen?  What do you think of his action? I will get to see him at some point work or gallop and I am one of those people that cant tell much from TV.  I need to see the horse.  I have never seen Flatter and this horse looks shorter and thicker than AP Indy.  What do you think?

[johnnym]

Was in the paddock yesterday for the FOY..
Upstart looked mildly warm nothing bad though. It was very breezy at the track yesterday so that may had some affect on the times I am sure..
Horse in this race that I will be keeping an eye on is Frammento.
Zito knows how to get a horse ready for the Derby..