My thoughts on BC Friday races

[covelj70]

I had a 7 hr plane ride last night for work so I put this together

I wasn\'t sure if I should post or not because this is a TG board and while the TGs are the foundation for all my picks, I use a lot of other things other than straight TGs (I believe pace matters, class matters and that distance matters). So apologies if this goes too far against the grain or spirit of what we generally do on this board but here it is.

Thoughts welcome as always. Good luck and hit me straight!


2014 Breeders Cup Analysis of Friday card

Friday.

Race 4.   Twilight Derby. (Kicks off the pick 6)

On paper, no pace at all in this one. Ring Weekend holds a huge class and figure edge in this race.  He gives up 4 pds of weight which isn\'t a lot considering his figure edge here. If he gets beat, it would likely because he gets parked wide in an overconfident ride from a jockey that\'s not too ground loss conscious but I don\'t see that happening. The rail horse should get a comfortable lead and a ground saving trip and could hang on for second at a decent price on the morning line.  French invader Talco could be a bit closer to the pace with a better break in his second start in the U.S.  He showed a decent close into a slow pace last time but will need to be closer to the pace. I am playing against the 2nd, 3rd and 4th choices on the morning line just because the slow projected pace might leave them too much to do. If I am wrong about the pace, I will whiff this race badly.

1. Ring Weekend. 2. Sawyer\'s Hill 3. Talco.


Race 5.  Damascus Stakes

What makes this race interesting is that Baffert has 3 in the race and of the three, I much prefer the least hyped one, Declassify. The two Bafferts that are the favorites on the morning line are both good young 3 year olds that are making a return to the races from the Derby/Derby trail. Chitu and Midnight Hawk are good horses for sure but I don\'t like 3 year olds coming back off long layoffs facing orders horses for the first time. I like Midnight Hawk more than Chitu due to the better worktab but I like Declassify best of all because he\'s battle tested against good older horses and he\'s really only ever run 1 bad race on a dirt track. At/near his 6-1 morning line, he\'s worth a bet. 8-1 morning line Magic Mark is my second choice. I don\'t know exactly what to make of the cutback to one turn but Ellis is tremendous off the layoff (albeit ice cold so far at this meet) and this horse loves Santa Anita. He will likely be off the pace given the one turn race but there projects to solid pace for him to close into. I will play against Bahamian Squall as the 4-1 co second choice as he doesn\'t seem to be in as good a form as this time last year.

1. Declassify.  2. Magic Mark. 3. Midnight Hawk.

Race 6. Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf

Every year, I watch American handicappers (of which I am one) come up with reasons why this particular crop of Euros isn\'t as good as the previous years crop of euros that dominated the Americans and then I watch all of the European punters run to the windows after the races laughing at the Americans for the failure to acknowledge what is painfully obvious...that American turf horses are inferior to European turf horses, both in pedigree and how they are trained for turf racing. As I have every year for the last 10, I will play a Euro on top in every single turf race over the course of the weekend. Maybe the U.S. will win one of the turf races somewhere along the line over the two days but I doubt it will be this race where the Euros look loaded. My main method of handicapping is Thorograph figures and typically, the euros look a lot slower coming in on the Thorograph but they beat the american horses anyway. One reason for this is that the early pace of the euro races is very slow so that artificially depresses the final figures. In addition many fall euro races are run on soft ground which also artificially depresses speed figures and finally, Lasix is performance enhancing and so the euros that get it when they come to America run faster (look at euro record of horses with vs without lasix in the breeders cup over the last 10 years).

In this years Juvy turf, the euros are actually really fast on thorograph even before making the adjustments described above. The only Euros I won\'t typically bet are the ones that have only run on straightaways before as they can sometimes get lost running turns for the first time (recall heavy favorite Vorda in Juv fillies turf last year had run only on straightaways in Europe before being proclaimed the second coming but it was Chrisellieum who had turn experience that dominated the race last year).  I also avoid euros that aren\'t getting lasix as the record of non lasix horses is very weak in the breeders cup.

In this years Juvy turf for the colts, Wet Sail and Hootennanny have only run turf races on straights so I will reluctantly not use them even though they two are fast on the TGs. Commemorative is not getting lasix so i won\'t use him in the top two spots either.

So that leaves Aktabantay and War Envoy as my top two. They are both very fast on Thorograph even before any adjustments. I will use War Envoy on top.  He has kept great company in Europe having run in 5 graded stakes already this year (unheard of for American 2 year olds). Most importantly, note the intent of the connections. They pre entered 2 in this race but are running their other horse in the juvenile dirt race on Saturday, I believe because they believe War Envoy is better/better suited to American racing. War Envoy will be one of my top plays on the Friday card unless he winds up as heavy chalk which I doubt because the American bettors have too short a memory (hint, remember Bobby\'s Kitten \"couldn\'t lose\" this race last year as a heavy favorite until he did to the two European horses).  

1.  War Envoy. 2. Aktabantay. 3. Commemorative (he ran really fast in Europe even without lasix)

Race 7. Breeders Cup Dirt Mile

This is the weakest race of the 13 Breeders Cup races this year and I believe this may be the next race to get eliminated after the BC committee mercifully eliminated the Marathon and BC Juvenile Sprint (now if we can just get said committee to eliminate running the Breeders Cup on Halloween every year when the \"young fans\" they pretend to want to attract need to be home with their kids on Halloween, that would really be progress.....don\'t hold your breath there).

Politics aside, in terms of the race itself, Goldencents will be the shortest priced favorite of the entire weekend and deservedly so. He is a great horse with great TG figures who fires his race everytime. There have been somewhat conflicting reports of how this horse has been doing coming into the race with most of the trackside pundits suggesting he looks incredible in his breezes and training but with some of the folks that I believe have a more discerning eye not liking how he is moving as much as they have in the past. In addition, he did get caught last time in a race he should have won once he opened up in the stretch so this horse isn\'t invincible as his likely 4-5 post time odds would suggest. The question becomes then, if he is at all vulnerable, who can beat him?

I will take a shot with a 3 horse exacta box with Carve and Big Bane Theory (two 15-1 shots on the morning line) along with Goldencents who would be tough to see off the board all together. Carve is a horse with very competitive thorograph figures (not quite as fast as Goldencents but pretty close), who has enough tactical speed to be forwardly place which should be key in a race without a ton of pace. Note that the all time winningest jockey in BC history, Mike Smith, takes the mount here and Smith was aboard Carve for one of his wins at Churchill Downs so that is a good sign that Smith takes this mount. As a mentioned before, this isn\'t the toughest field and Carve figures at a big price. Big Bane Theory is more of a stretch as he hasn\'t run on the dirt in his career. He is very accomplished on the turf though and he has breezed very well on the dirt (doesn\'t always translate to the afternoons). One clue about his ability to possibly run on the dirt comes from his good race 2 back on the Del Mar synthetic track which is generally believed to play the most like dirt of any of the synthetics. We sometimes see horses jump way up on the thorograph scale first time dirt and he\'s only a few points off Goldencents to start. At 15 to 1 or higher, at least we will get paid if we are right about this.

One of the keys to finding value in this race is that Tapiture and Vicars\'s in Trouble will both be over bet relative to their true odds. The betting public always overplays horses that were on the derby trail later in their 3 yr old year (just a function of name recognition) as both of these were this year. Furthermore, I have already read 30 different comparisons of Tapiture to Tapizar who won this race for the same connections several years ago.  Unfortunately for them, Tapizar has absolutely nothing to do with this race but Tapiture will get over bet as a result. He could hit the board but he\'s unlikely to represent any kind of value and the horses I am using are as fast or faster on the TGs and will be at least 2x the price. Finally, Pants on Fire ran a huge thorograph figure last time out ( fastest of any horse in the field as a matter of fact) but he has always bounced off his big efforts in the past and so I think we have to play him to do that again, especially since he will likely be the second or third choice.  I am also leaving out Fed Biz as the second choice on the morning line as the TG figures suggest he simply isn\'t fast enough.

1. Carve. 2. Goldencents. 3. Big Bane Theory.

Race 8. Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf

This is a race that is near and dear to my heart for several reasons. First of all, two  of my best Breeders Cup scores have come in this race, including last year when our filly, Testa Rossi, ran 2nd in the race behind the great Chrisellium.

The winning betting strategy for this race for 3 of the recent runnings at Santa Anita has been very simple....take Chad Brown\'s best horse and box it with the European horses. Last year it was Chrisellium over Testa Rossi from Chad\'s barn who Chad publicly touted ahead of time as the best of the 4 he ran. The year before that the great Euro mare (filly at that time) Flotilla won over Chad\'s Whatsthechances and then prior to that at Santa Anita, Chad won his first Breeders Cup race with Maram over Johnny Murtagh and Heart Shaped (my other big score in this race).

I am one that doesn\'t like to make things too complicated so it will follow that same strategy this year. Chad has been very vocal publicly saying that not only is Lady Eli his best filly this year (once again out of 4) but he said that Lady Eli is the best filly he has ever brought to this race even though he has won it once and ran 2nd twice. Who am I to question that?

For the euro part of this plan, Osaila is out even though she is one of the favorites both because she has only run on straightaways and she isn\'t getting lasix. 2 no no\'s for me.

That leaves the two far outside horses, Prize Exhibit and Qualify. While many will dismiss them from their far outside posts, we need to remember that Testa Rossi ran 2nd from the 12 hole last year and Maram won from out there as well. With the turn of foot these two have, they can overcome it. Also note that both of these fillies won very easily in their left hand turn races which suggests that they may be very well suited to American Racing and the odds will be higher than they would otherwise be because of the posts.

1. Qualify. 2. Lady Eli. 3. Prize Exhibit.

Race 9. Breeders Cup Distaff

This isn\'t a race that I have historically done that well in, in part because favorites have been pretty good in this race in recent history and I usually try to beat the favorites as one can tell from the write ups above.

I struggle this year to come up with any kind of decent idea at all in this race.

Untappable will be favored but her last three races aren\'t any faster than a bunch of the others on the thorograph and the fact of the matter is she has never beaten any good horses doing what they want to be doing (ie she beat Sweet Reason last time but that was two turns which Sweet Reason doesn\'t want and she beat Rosalind but on dirt). The two times she really had to class up, she failed badly in last years Breeders Cup and in the Haskell. Furthermore, the only time she ran on this track she was a huge disappointment.

So how about the other favorite Close Hatches? There\'s a lot to like there but my goodness was that last race bad. How can we explain that flop away at 1/5 ? Thorograph would say it was a bounce of a big figure lifetime top the race before. That could be in which case she isn\'t likely to run back to her good races so soon after bouncing so bad. But, what if the last clunker was because she hated the Keenland track in which case she has right to bounce right back ?

At 3 to 1 on the morning line, I have to play against her, especially given the pace which should be hot and which she should be close to.

Don\'t Tell Sophia is somewhat interesting but thorograph suggests she could bounce also and she\'s not going to get away with those wide sweeping moves against these like she has against the very weak horses she has been beating

Iotopa only has one race fast enough on the tgs to compete here and she doesn\'t look set to run that race today.

Bottom line from me is that I don\'t like any of the favorites and I think the pace could melt down. If it does, I think Stanwyck could hit the board at a very big price. She probably can\'t win but if I key her in the tris at 30 to 1 and she gets up, we could get paid nicely.

She will likely have a faster pace than she ever has had before to run into and she likes Santa Anita. I also like the rider change due to Maragh\'s injury to the more aggressive Nakatani.

This is a very aggressive stab here but at least one for which we would get paid.  

1. Key Stanwyck to hit the board in the tri

[johnnym]

I like your Juvy Turf Pick
Good write up..
Good Luck to you

[Rick B.]

Right or wrong, these write-ups are extremely
time-consuming, to the point of handicapping
overload / exhaustion. My ADHD usually thwarts
my desire to do these anymore.

A sincere thanks to you Jim for your analysis.

[P-Dub]

Outstanding analysis, thanks for sharing this Jim.

I look forward to your Saturday analysis if you get a chance to do so. I will be diving into the data tonight and tomorrow.

Enjoy Halloween with your family, and best of luck at the windows this weekend.

[jerry]

Any concerns about how the Euros will handle the new turf course?

[covelj70]

It\'s a good question but in general, they have dominated on all turf courses at all the tracks over the last 10 years worth of breeders cups so I like their chances

[joemama]

the best part of betting the Euros is that we here in America don\'t get enough quality data on their runners hence we can\"t make a intelligent judgement on the races they are in.  It takes a lot of effort on our part to search out the info on the Euro\'s so the prices are very generous.

[Bigredgoer]

Ditto here Jim...Thank you for allowing us to get a glimpse of how someone of your stature handicaps these races..Truly Insightful...Best of Luck!

[covelj70]

thanks for the nice thoughts from everyone but the only thing notable about my stature is that I am 5\'10\", 220 lbs.  It ain\'t pretty!

I had the 7 hour plane ride home last night from the west coast so I put my thoughts together and just posted them

good luck to everyone!