LoneStar race 8 thoughts

[tommyG]

The favorite looks tough to deny in this race.  I will be looking for Vertical Value by tossing the likely 2nd ML choice.  The 3rd ML choice also looks vulnerable.

1  Internet Success (5-1):  forward moving pattern.  competitive number, but at sprints.  TGI suggests might not like a mile.  I will use underneath, small protective bets.

2  Jmac\'s Bling (30-1):  too slow

3  Circustown Flyer (10-1):  a little slow.  Sprints.  TGI suggests might not appreciate the mile.  

4  Ibaka (7-5):  good numbers.  proven at the distance.  looks tough.

5  Ring Necked (6-1):  I like this horse to hit the board.  A little slow number-wise, but forward moving pattern, most likely to improve, and proven at the distance.  Must use.  I really do not see as a threat to Ibaka, but 2nd not unlikely.

6  Early Hot Water (15-1):  Not sure what to do with him.  TGI indicates might not appreciate the distance, but only 3rd lifetime race with somewhat of a chance for improvement.  At 15-1, I\'ll use.

7  Dutch Hohn (20-1):  slow.

8  FJ Uncle Vic (5/2):  in 11 races, only 1 decent number at a sprint.  The other 10 are too slow to hit the board in this.  Have to play against.

My opinion on this race is that Ibaka will win for fun.  I believe Ring Necked has the best chance of running 2nd with his anticipated improvement.  I will play that exacta ice cold and heavy--which is betting my opinion of the race. I will also play small trifectas Keying Ibaka on top, Ring Necked in 2nd and 3rd spots, with Internet Success and Early Hot Water in case they defy their breeding/TGI.  I\'d like Early Hot Water to be the one to come in 3rd.

Anybody have any thoughts on the analysis or betting strategy?  Especially, TGJB???

[smalltimer]

tommy,
I don\'t play these types of races hardly ever.  But if I do, I almost have to think the 2, 6, 7 would have to be able to run second in the race.
Some guys out there probably have a good handle on this type of smallish field with a strong favorites and how they might approach a wager.
Good luck, hope you grab a nice return.

[tommyG]

Ha!  In Texas, this is as good as it gets!  Great night for races, though.  Really just want to play this one race and try to make a little money.

[smalltimer]

I was in the service in Texas.  I went to Wichita Falls and spent a week there one night.
Good luck

[Tavasco]

I hate that the favorite has worked so slowly with long layoff. I\'d play against and hope he runs out.

[Tavasco]

Your plan is better!

[tommyG]

Not really.  I was right about the 4.  I was right about the 5.  I was WRONG about the 8, and that was the key to my play.  Alas, I did not cash.

[tommyG]

And even KNOWING the results I would not bet the 8...I just don\'t get it.  Somebody, please explain.

[sekrah]

Just redboarding but I see

- 2nd fastest figure in the race.
- Looks about 3 points better on dirt than grass based on that Oct-Jan stretch.
- Interpret that 12 on turf last time out as a 9 on dirt and he don\'t look so shabby.  

Not great value there, but I think he\'s a use as a saver.