Friends Lake

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I have something that keeps popping into my head and although I don\'t think anyone can add anything to really resolve the concern, I have to throw it out.

Its no secret that Friends Lake was a nut case before the Holy Bull. He behaved very badly and ran like a goofy horse. On Derby Day, they could not get that Stubborn s.o.b. into the gate. He only went in when he was ready and he looked to me to be close to going ape pooh. I was in fear for the gate crew I really thought I saw a moment when one of them was gonna get tagged with a very mad hoof. The horse overcame it all and He never did start the frantic antics I thought were about to occur. But I have to wonder, do you really want a horse like that to see his next competition starting gate in a race with 200,000 drunk money wasters screaming like monkeys on moonshine as you\'re trying to load this horse into the gate?

[Michael D.]

he got pretty good practice on saturday. the crowd was ten deep at the rail, and the wind had losing tickets and whatever other garbage was there flying all around (bad environment for stressful horses). bottom line: the horse got a great trip, and picked up the $600k. if they don\'t train more speed into him, there is no way he will win (unless they get bailey, and he pulls another sea hero trick, the mig can\'t pull that off). if they get a bit aggressive, and get the horse close to the pace on derby day, i think they have an outside shot. either way, i think we are looking at a very talented colt, who will only get better as he gets older.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

18,000 FOY day
25,000 Florida Derby day

I don\'t know that he needs more speed. He looks to be placing himself in the races and that's a good way for a horse to run the Kentucky Derby. The furthest back he got was about 7 lengths when Frisky was all alone by 4 on a :47 half. That made him at about 48:2 which was not a bad place to be on the route fractions from that day. The routes have been tiring for many horses of late. That card will be tough to make numbers for, my hunch is that Newfoundland and Supah both moved forward and ran very well and the Florida Derby was slow but not as abysmal as it looks.

Speed has kinda been an anomaly in the Derby the last couple years, theres been plenty of horses to win by coming from off of it. Like always, it will depend upon the horses entered and how the track is playing.

CtC

[Michael D.]

correct, but even horses that have come out of it have had pretty good speed. fupeg was no plodder. i just don\'t want to have my money on the horse, and have to rely on the mig negotiating his way around fifteen horses with this huge, long striding horse. i just see another finish like Atswhat if they don\'t have him placed somewhere in the top bunch....... i trust kimmel will do the right thing. i still think the horse will not run his best races until he is 4 or 5, so maybe even thinking of him as a derby contender is a mistake ??

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Mig is a good jock.

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2003/derby_history/derby_charts/jockeys/393.html

The race is BIG, not in purse, but in what it means to those that are involved in the game. Good jockeys get excited and make mistakes in that race. I think the reason you can count on Bailey is that he\'s so cold. I don\'t think the enormity of the history really impacts him. I think he sees the 60K he\'s gonna win by crossing the wire first and thats how he\'s so calculating. Theres good horses in this race, but its a horse race first and a jockey contest second. For all the good horses Bailey has  been on its a tough race to win. He\'s won it twice, thats a good record but its not phenomenal. Theres plenty of jockeys I\'d take heads up with him any day and a couple I\'d absolutely favor.

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2003/derby_history/derby_charts/jockeys/33.html

The year Bailey won on Sea Hero he got a little lucky. The Crop was not strong and he slipped inside of Prairie Bayou is my recollection. I\'m glad he won that year though No arguing with his two winning rides, they were outstanding. One got me the money, the other cost me it.

But I do believe he\'s on the downward side now and that Frankel\'s wonder horses are the main thing that keeps him doing well in big races. Bailey is a good jockey...

to bet against.

None of which means I\'d back Friends Lake after he\'s been trained up to the Derby on his last two efforts. I may, but only after watching him closely in the paddock and the post parade. If you do that at Churchill you\'ll never get the bet down. If you do it from the puter, you may never see the antics. However, any sign of anxiousness in that race would not be a good thing.

If he doesn\'t start again off the slowish Florida Derby number he\'ll be \"value\" in the Derby. He\'s gonna be in the 10-1 range, maybe more.

24.34, 48.75, 1:12.24, 1:38.20, 1:51.38
four wide final turn, came home in 13:18, extrapolated 26:36. But was he even the best A.p. Indy on the card?

Suave:

23.59, 48.32, 1:12.88, 1:38.21, 1:50.97
came home in 12:76, extrapolated 25:52. But if you\'re pondering which Indy is best, you have to ponder if in those respective races whether other horses were even better.

CtC

[Michael D.]

\"there are plenty of jockeys I\'d take heads up with him any day and a couple I\'d absolutely favor.\" ....... hmmmmm. this is a game that is to a large degree based on betting. bailey is no longer the best bet in the game, as his talents have been factored into the market (that is, most of us know how good he is). the guy, however, is a babe ruth, a michael jordan, a ted williams, a jim brown, a....  a talent that will go down in history as one of the top two or three that ever played the game. I hope you are talking about the betting aspect of the game when you say you would take other jockeys heads up with bailey, because there is nobody in the game today that that compete with that man on even terms..... and, CtC, it\'s not even close... also, if FL does not race again before may, we are looking at much, much higher odds than 10-1 in the derby.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

No idea on the Lane\'s End, I haven\'t seen P.P\'s yet. I\'m sure you understand that 1st race on FOY day was pedestrian. Not to say that means anything, but it was slow. Dashboard Drummer came out of that race (I take that back, he came out of the Champagne against Birdstone) and finished 3rd in the Swale beaten 5 lengths I believe. I bet Caiman in the Swale who finished gamely behind Birdstone in the FOY day race thinking he could get third or better. He didn\'t..lol Another horse that came out of that Birdstone FOY day race ran in the Florida Derby, Farnum Alley. He was beaten four lengths after going widest on the second turn. I thought he was moving best at the end, whether he could sustain it another eighth is the question.

I got a chance to watch the Florida Derby again. TCE never gave up and though he lost some ground to Friends Lake, I thought he was coming back at the very end. He was slightly steadied on the first turn, found room to the inside somewhere on the second turn, Bumped with Tapit, was momentarily not persevered with when Friends Lake angled in front of him and then finished well. Have to see if he progresses in his next race. A good Derby showing is gonna be an issue of the trip for him it seems.

Value Plus was impeded out of the gate. He may have been the pace setter but for the interference.

RTF had the bounce factor and he ran on the rail the whole way. It saved him ground, but I\'m really not certain the rail was the best place to be. I\'ll check into that later.

Friends Lake does have a greyhound build and I noticed he runs with his head lower than most. I know Chief\'s Crown did, I think His daddy A.p. did too. TCE ain\'t bad looking either. I never got a good isolation on Tapit, but from what I did see he was a little blocky with a big rump. He looked like Rubiano to me. He was steadied a bit, not enough to make a difference but it cost him a length or so.



Post Edited (03-17-04 13:49)

[HP]

Michael D. wrote

\"I hope you are talking about the betting aspect of the game when you say you would take other jockeys heads up with bailey, because there is nobody in the game today that that compete with that man on even terms..... and, CtC, it\'s not even close\"

Just out of curiosity, have you seen John Velazquez\' stats at the latest Gulfstream meet? I\'ve never seen anything like it. Even a guy like me, who looks past the jockeys a bit, has to give the guy his props.

Velazquez has a better ITM% (60%!) than Bailey with A LOT MORE mounts and Bailey is not riding anything too cheap! I would say Johnny V....is....close.  HP

[Kimmel Factor]

If this horse returned to his Two Year Old Top in the Fla Derby it would be a mistake to bypass the Wood.

One more solid prep, experience with crowds, may have him setup for Ky Derby Day.

[Michael D.]

in my opinion, the big difference is experience and preparation. i have always thought JR has as much talent as anyone, and i think by the time he is his in his mid 40\'s, he will hold every jock record out there. i love watching the guy ride, especially on speed tracks like GP. since his record setting performance at Sar last year, however, it\'s getting tougher to make money betting on him. i made a big double bet on fla derby day with JR in the first two legs, thinking i was getting $6.60 back, which i though was fair. the double returned $4.40 for $2 !!!!!

[Michael D.]

CtC,
i have watched the fla ferby a bunch of times. i agree on your analysis. TCE was running as well as FL at the end, after once agian being strangled by sellers. i think VP did have a bit of trouble at the beginning. he might have been tougher at the end if he broke well and got right into stride. Tapid did get steadied a bit around the turn, but he did not have much left for the stretch run. i remember your post from a while back, regarding Tapit\'s breeding. he might be better in the mile to a mile and a sixteenth range.