Short odds in Oaks/Derby Double

[jimbo66]

with almost 200k in the Oaks/Derby double pool the Untapable-California Chrome double is paying about 9 bucks, for 2.  

Way way shorter than I expected.  I suspected that Untapable would drift a bit and go off 7-5 or so, instead of odds, just because of the 13 horse field and people shopping for value.  And I also thought Chrome would be 3-1 or 7-2 and certainly not 2-1 or so.

It is only 200k, and it is the double pool, not the win pools, but boy the chalks are awfully short, based on price.  

For what it is worth, Wicked Strong 2nd choice, followed by Danza.

[toppled]

Question in title

[jimbo66]

Twinspires.com.

[Boscar Obarra]

prob lots of $2 bettors in there, masters of the obvious

[jimbo66]

Boscar,

Quite the contrary.

The 2 dollar bettors are in the win pool, which is why you will see better odds on the favorites.

The exotics are always \"shark infested\".  Which is why a horse like Pants on Fire may have been 9-1 in the win pool, but was 25-1 in the pick-3s, pick-4\'s and oaks-derby doubles.

[Boscar Obarra]

Well, they may be shark infested, but if you think the public isn\'t hooking up the two clear favorites in the double (with gusto) you\'re mistaken. Unless you think they can\'t even find the double pool ;-)

 Closed at $10 or so.   Eyeballing it, quite underlaid. If your theory was correct, the wise guys are all over it. I think we can dismiss that as unlikely.

Payoffs to $1

1   71
2   199
3   121
4   22
5   5
6   42
7   147
8   64
9   152
10   64
11   ---
12   41
13   60
14   43
15   43
16   29
17   82
18   50
19   58
20   19

[number5858]

Hopefully, my Rosie double will come through.

[Old Mr. Boston]

Seems that the payouts show CC or chaos, I like chaos...Ken

[jimbo66]

CC is 3-1 in the Win Pool.  3-2 in the Double pool.

[TreadHead]

re-posting from other thread

Pulled these of Twinspires, $1 payouts

1-71.20
2-199.90
3-121.90
4-22.30
5-5.70 (!!!)
6-42.20
7-147.80
8-64.30
9-152.70
10-64.60

12-41.40
13-60.40
14-43.40
15-43.10
16-29.20
17-82.20
18-50.70
19-58.30
20-19.80

Implies odds of 9/5 on CC.  Because UT paid an even $4.00, all of these are expected $2 win ticket payouts, based on the double anyway.

[Tavasco]

So Bosca Obarra,

Based on your excellent tote watching, My hope (DWF) to win the derby tomorrow is the 10th choice on the M/L and yet the 4th choice in the double payouts. Am I swimming with sharks or minnows?

[Boscar Obarra]

There are many answers to that, but the most reliable one is...neither.

[SteveB]

I think the Friday Derby win pool odds are somewhat meaningless. I would guess between 1 and 2 percent of the final pool is wagered on Friday leaving 98 to 99 percent of the win pool to be wagered tomorrow.

[Tavasco]

Today I am less confused, it seems Dream With Fate is, at this point, the 4th or 5th choice in the win pool. Consistent with the Oaks Derby Double.

Of course what I liked about him was his 18-22 to one ML which appears to have gone south. Now that he lost his value edge and his only other merits were visually impressive and good late speed, I\'m stuck looking for a new winner.

I Suppose I could use his other big prep winning peers above him in verticals.  I.e. A minnow strategy.  But I did watch shark tank last night.