Oaklawn and The New Orleans

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Every race has different variables, but Fire Slam\'s stock went up a little on the basis of the one mile Southwest Stakes in my opinion. Two Down Automatic finished second in that race beaten only 3/4\'s of a length by Smarty Jones. At the same distance Firm Slam had beaten Two Down by about 3.

Two Down is a Smoke Glacken and although he was getting to Smarty, an El Prado was getting to him. I thought the time of the Southwest and an allowance race won by Pure American were both good. Gran Prospect was crushed in that other race.  

Smarty looked a little vulnerable, but he won and there is some evidence/reason to indicate it may not have been his best effort. So we\'ll see.

You got to love the New Orleans Handicap, other than a Breeders Cup Race, when has a finer group of horses been gathered? I have no idea what I\'m gonna do and I\'ve been factoring this race for a week.

I recently stated I discount what a trainer says about his horse. Now here is Dollase just absolutely brimming with glowing words about Ten Most Wanted. The man can flat out train and the horse is a good horse. But what flattened me was that he stated Ten lost the Derby because he had a vertebra go out of place after a bump during the race and that he couldn\'t hardly jog afterwards. What the hell is that? He also thinks an even worse bump with Funny Cide threw him out of his game on Breeders Cup Day:

http://drf.com/news/article/53663.html


So Ten doesn\'t like contact? Tuff, get used to it. I think they ought to maul him. I think they all ought to crowd around shouting: \"my back hurts\" and see if his back goes out just due to the psychic stress of it all. This is the big leagues Wally and theres no crying in baseball. Theres no stupid excuses either. If this horse really has that gimp a back it could go out at any time. If that story is true this horse is a lost bet or a carcass on the track waiting to happen. Note he lost both those races coming from far outside and I\'m assuming the bumps occured while positioning to save ground. I wonder if he\'ll be impacted by a deja vu type flashback Sunday when he breaks from outside and tries for position? Or will he just drop way back to save his aching vertebrae?

This horse may be the favorite. I was all over his p.p.s and I like him, but heck I like everyone in this race. Sometimes you do whats called \"Chaos Handicapping\". Theres a calculated risk you\'ll get burned by it, but after listening to the Dollase tripe theres no way in hades I\'m betting on this horse. I don\'t even care if theres some scintilla of truth to his inane comments.

And then there were seven.

Hut one, Hut two

lol

CtC



Post Edited (02-28-04 21:03)

[derby1592]

The big three (FC, PR and TMW) will pull all the money in the New Orleans Hdcp and of those three, TMW certainly looks like the best but you have to wonder if he will fire right off the bench (his TG stats say Dollase is 50/50 to have his horses run a top or better off the bench). He indeed may be one of the top handicap horses this year along with Perfect Drift and MDoro but I would be willing to take a shot against him in here although I do think he is indeed the one to beat.

The value looks to be Saint Liam. At the weights, he is faster than all but TMW\'s isolated top (he is as fast as TMW). He had a solid line as a 3yo before Dutrow and has really \"blossomed\" as a 4yo since joining his new stable. There is always a chance he may react to his last 2 big efforts but this is probably the best horse in a stable that has has had about 50% of its last 88 starters equal or better their tops and he comes into the race after three nice LOCAL works with the last an eye-catching, breezing bullet in 58 and 2/5 over a track that can be tricky for some to handle but seems to suit the Saint just fine. He also has a good post and should be able to work a good trip.

He could easily go off well above his morning line of 8/1 given the popularity of the big 3 and that this will be his first stakes start of the year. Finally, note that Dutrow has had prior success shipping to FG in the past with 9 of 14 starters equaling or bettering their effective tops.

It should be a fun race to watch and the fact that it is not being run at a \"Magna\" track makes it that much nicer.

Good luck to everyone (particularly those who key on Saint Liam:-)

Chris

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

To me he looks like a horse that was always trying to play \"catch up\" last year. No 2 year starts then right after a maiden win he was thrown into the Arkansas Derby. There was a obviously a reason for that, but it was too much too soon.

They brought him back to his conditions and he ran into the Wicked Witchcraft colt on a sloppy track. I think Wild n\' Wicked probably wired. I can\'t remember, but loose speed on a wet track is an equation for a wire to wire score on many days. A good second. I don\'t know where the winner is now, but he had lots of potential. Then a big win, then another stakes try on a dragstrip surface. Three year performances at the distance being exceeded. Perhaps a stalking trip that never had a chance to overcome the leader. A game placing. Then a turf try. Theres lots of turf breeding in Ballado and Devil\'s Bag, but it didn\'t work out. Maybe the trainer thought he wasn\'t as good a dirt horse as he might of been. Then a wide loss at Saratoga to a decent horse but a layoff thereafter suggesting something may have been amiss.

Thereafter a trainer change. Now handled by \"Son of leading trainer\". Two wide recent wins in hand suggesting good current form, the later of which in competitive time. How much faster could he have run? Did the effort take something out of him?

Then a breezing work at the track in 58:2 and the most interesting thing to me, he\'s been at the Fair Grounds for a month apparently acclimating for this race. All of which add up to support the cautious and reserved recommendation to...
 
Notify derby1492 to not talk about horses im considering...lol  I feel like TGJB after the Rag board posters called the numbers of his future bets.

He\'s quick with a lightish impost and should be right on the pace. Theres serious competition in here and its a major step up in class. 8-1 will be fair odds.

I know, I gave you credit for the Nina, Pinta and Santa Maria.



CtC

[mbeychok]

SHHHHH!!  Saint Liam is a bet here at morning line odds or even a few notches less. Love the fact that he has been here in Louisiana for nearly a month, was pointed here since december and oh yeah, is trained by one of the hottest trainers right now Dutrow.  He gets weight from slower horses, should get a stalking trip at a track where speed is pretty good going long and is the second fastest except for the iso top on TMW. His two efforts have come nearly 30 days apart, he\'s had 6 weeks since last and a pair up at the weights makes him a winner. Almost too good to be true?  I hope not.

michael

[Silver Charm]

Hey Mr Time Machine Man Derby 1592,

If the St Comes Marching In against this field then you really are from outerspace and we\'re changing your name to Derby 9292.
 
As in--In the Year 9292 if man is still alive, if woman can survive WHAT THE HELL ARE MY SHEETS GOING TO LOOK LIKE???  LOL

Good Luck Fellas.

[bdhsheets]

It almost looks too easy and when it does, POW smack dab in the kisser! I\'ll be betting him to win it, but hope he hangs on for a slice in the tri. LOL

I have a tough time getting involved in races where major contenders under ordinary circumstances (like TMW and Peace Rules) are either coming off a layoff or returned quite a bit short. You never really know what to expect.

I think virtually everyone is almost ready throw in the towel on Funny Cide. If those other 2 are off their best game (which is possible), he has a chance to win here even if he doesn\'t improve to his peak. IMHO, that last race wasn\'t as bad as it looks. He made a serious bid against the best horse in the country (MDO) before weakening. I think there\'s no one in here like that at this time. At a square price, I could get interested. No idea what his odds will look like. One thing is for certain. If he doesn\'t get a big piece here, then he\'s a bet against from here on out. The reason I am slightly interested is that I think the towel may have been thrown in by many handicappers one race too soon. It is not clear yet.  

Sir Cherokee is also interesting. His Ark Derby last year was a darn good race at that time of year for a 3yo. He has returned with two wins against weaker, but I think he has something left in the tank.  The recent work was sharp. He may be ready for a lifetime top. It\'s a matter of if that will be good enough to win against these. At a big price he\'s also worth a look on top and underneath.

I think after that the race is pretty wide open and obvious - everyone\'s merits and question marks are clear. I am unlikely to bet any of the others unless something looks really screwy on the board.

Nice race.



Post Edited (02-29-04 22:07)

[Michael D.]

with six horses within a few lengths of each other, anyhting could happen here. at his best, at the weights, i put SF right there. from post one, with JR aboard, i think he should get the trip. SF to win. i have to join the rest, and put SL close. nice weights, nice timing, and nice post. i will also use TMW. i\'m not sure what day is going to do, being a stalker from the outside post, in a race full of stalkers. the horse fits on figures though. exacta box SF, SL, and TMW.

good luck all ......

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

If Sir Cherokee had made the Derby I think he would have been my bet. If that Arkansas Derby was legit and I don\'t see how it couldn\'t be, this horse had monster potential. If the race was at Oaklawn I think he\'d be my choice today.

Seattle Fitz is just an improving horse. What can you say? I\'ve liked him ever since the Clark when he was the only horse to hang around after being near the front. He certainly can win this race.

I\'ve always liked Funny Cide and he could do it. I\'ve just had this feeling though that ever since the Belmont works he won\'t relax training or in races. If you try and pace him in the race it ties him up. I think he wants to go, go, go.  Thats too bad because if he\'d allow himself to be tractable I think he\'d be an awesome horse. But I don\'t see evidence of that for this race. Maybe he\'ll go to the front and wire them today. I\'ll have a small bet with him and Saint Liam hooked up. Just for old times sakes.

I\'m also gonna box in a very small way the two highest odds horses at post time. Just to make a betting statement about this race...lol Its looking like it will be Spanish Empire and Comic Truth. I\'ve undoubtedly bet horses with much less of a chance.

I\'m looking at the odds right now and I\'m a little surprised that Sir Cherokee is this price. I was expecting a much bigger price. Haven\'t changed my view that he\'s live, but I can\'t take him at this price when I am projecting a lifetime top just to put him in the thick of it. I would really need 15-1 or more in a field this deep with so many question marks.  There may be some value in here somewhere, but right now nothing is screaming at me. It looks like I\'m going to have to just watch.

[mholbert]

nice call.

[Silver Charm]

Nice call guys my crow is warming in the oven as I post.

Silver Charm

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I was a little surprised Seattle Fitz went off the slight favorite. But I think I understand why.

I didn\'t bet Saint Liam to win I wanted closer to 8-1. I think derby1492 ruined my odds. But it worked out for the best. I didn\'t bet to place either I insist on 9-1 on the tote board to place bet.

I thought the Trifecta was very generous with those three horses.

If Ten Most Wanted bumped as many times in races as Funny Cide does he\'d be a psychotic nut bag.

Did anyone really believe that Derby vertebra b.s. Dollase was yammering about when Ten ran five weeks later in the Belmont? The horse doesn\'t like contact and if you can rough him up or make him think he\'s in tight I think he\'s a head case. But Funny Cide may be too.



Post Edited (02-29-04 19:03)

[Michael D.]

1. Seattle Fitz - on his best he fit well here, especially at the weights with JR aboard from post 1. HOWEVER, there really was no resaon to believe that SF would be at his best. mclaughlin has been cranking up his horses at GP to the max, and on three weeks rest off a brutal race, some regression should have been expected. add in the ship, and a bit of pattern handicapping should have made this one too iffy. bad handicapping
2. Funny Cide - expected finish, and a relatively easy toss. his derby run was a perfect stalking trip over a speed favoring strip, and his preakness run was wildly overrated. we have seen his top going nine furlongs or longer.... maybe time to cut back to a mile (or battle the state breds).
3. Spanish Empire - drifting late in his fast race, then tires next, and now wants to stretch out against these?
4. Saint Liam - predicted finish. would have won if bailey had not wacked his horse lefty and knocked SL sideways at the end. bailey has pulled this trick hundereds of times though, and for some reason unknown to me, will never even get an inquiry  for doing it (the inquiry today was for the first tyrn incident, he blinked because prado claimed).
5. Joe made a nice prediction a few days ago, predicting PR would return to his best. with the decent rest, and ship out to La, that could have been expected. I thought there might be somewhat of a speed duel here, and i thought PR might get a bit leg weary at the end. in fact did get just a bit tired (13.1 last eighth), but bailey was so brilliant getting the horse to relax up until the stretch run, that all but two of the horses were eliminated by the top of the stretch. nice odds today, and a sharp handicapper could have scored big. bad handicapping here.
6. Sir Cherokee - some speed in the race, but no reason to expect he would get to close into a wild :45 speed duel. aside from the Ark derby, he just looked too slow. expected finish.
7. Comic Truth - expected finish. too slow.
8. Ten Most Wanted - bad trip was possible. a stalker starting from the outside with four or five other stalkers is bound to get a bad trip. i used the horse because he was the fastest, but a better gambler would have tossed the horse at low odds. bad handicapping.

i had SL in most spots, but misreads on SF and PR cost me.

[colt]

Here we go again with another "NO-CALL" from the Fair Grounds stewards toady.  This was the perfect opportunity for the stewards to step up and deliver a sound ruling.  The New Orleans Handicap is another example of repeated blown calls by the FG stewards, who have had a long history of blowing calls and taking care of their own (local colony vs. outsiders) whenever sound and impartial rulings are required.  

I am just going to lick my wound and get ready for Wednesday - $1.4M carryover at Santa Anita.