I find the complaints about GP speed bias yesterday interesting

[miff]

Hi Jim,

Not surprising that Beyer(and assume JB)zeroed in on a very glib FOY dirt surface. Beyer gave the first 2 finishers in FOY a figure equal TG 1.5 (with the loser slightly better on TG being outside of the winner on both turns)

Top Billing ran a top, TG 3.5 range assuming that JB and Beyer saw the variant the same.

Constitution ran a big race, TG 2 range, in that 6th race allowance.Tonalist, forced out of his preferred running style,had to chase early and ran better than the figure he will get,very negative dynamics for him.

Have not seen the Rags figs yet.Day seemed pretty straight forward in the dirt routes(time in between dirt races sometimes a problem) except the Devon Dale which came up a bit on the slow side raw,acccordingly fig wise,like TG 6.Thought the DD winner maybe special going in, not so sure now.

Good Luck,

Mike

[covelj70]

incredibly helpful buddy, really appreciate that

I do think that would put Top Billing in between a rock and a hard place in terms of the Derby

He will either need to make a decent jump figure wise to a new top in his next just to get into the Derby (need to run a 1 or 2 to win one of the final preps, especially with his closing style) or if he runs another 3 or 4 TG and gets up for 3rd or 4th in the next and qualifies for the Derby, he would then need to run a new top to win.  

I just don\'t see it.

He\'s a super nice horse and I sure as heck wish I owned him but I don\'t see it for the Derby for this one

thanks alot again, very helpful info

[miff]

Would give all one run type closers an extra half mulligan for the way the track certainly seemed to play.

[covelj70]

Hey buddy!!!

how are you?

two quick points:

1) Extrasexyhipster looks awesome on the TGs you will see when the Gotham gets put up this weekend.  He\'s much faster than Top Billing or almost all of the others who people like at this point.  He\'s another one we made an iquiry on to buy only to get laughed at.  No idea if he gets the distance but he\'s a super talented horse.

2) I\'m not looking for horses to have run a zero already but running a huge fig at this point and having a 3.5 top with only one race left to go before the Derby are two different things (assuming Miff is right on Top Billing\'s FOY which he usually is).

Without going back to look at the Archives, in the post-steroid era, I think you need to run in the 0 to 2 range to win the Derby and since we know that very few horses run a new top in the Derby (I think the average is 2 or less out of the 20), then we really need to focus on horses that have run a 0-2 by their final prep. In order for Top Billing and a bunch of the others to do that, that requires them to make a big jump in their final prep and we also know from the archives that horses that make a big jump in their final prep almost always (not always but almost for you Ice Box fans out there) bounce in the Derby.

With last year as an exmaple, Orb was already really fast after his FOY win (a 2 if memory serves). Top Billing is what, 5 lenghts slowwr than Orb this time last year.  That\'s alot of ground to make up with only 1 prep to go!

will be very fun to watch this unfold as always

[covelj70]

I would have to go back and look at the charts from last year\'s FOY day but I seem to remember that track being very \"speed favoring\" as well but Orb was able to run down Violence.

I think Orb was the only winner from off the pace that day but I could be wrong.

I know Animal Kingdom was the only one from off the pace when he won the Sprial.

At the risk of restating something I\'ve said a bunch of times already, great horses can overcome those biases.

Top Billing and the others could prove to be great eventually but if they were as great as everyone wanted them to be right now (i.e 2-1 fav with that post) then he would have been able to overcome it.

Big Brown and Barbaro and Animal Kingdom and Orb all did.

BTW, I will add one to the list.  I Want Revenge.  He would have galloped against those tin cans that year in the Derby if the Vet would have let him run (not saying he should have by any stretch) but remember the stumle he overcame in the Wood that year?  that\'s the kind of race I am looking for int he upcoming 6 weeks to pick my Derby winner.  I haven\'t seen anything close to that yet

[jimbo66]

Jim,

I know you are a good guy, so you aren\'t going to mind me making a comment about your post to further illustrate the point I was making the other day about just looking at figures without context.

Let\'s just say for a second that Miff is correct and Top Billing got a 3.  so you are looking ahead, sort of trying to manufacture a pattern that will make him run big on Derby day and throwing him out because if he runs fast enough next race, he will be sitting on bounce going into the derby.  And if just \"pairs\", he is too slow.

Let\'s also say that the majority opinion about the Gulf track on Saturday is true and it was one of the most highly speed favoring tracks of that meet.  So, Top billing pairs up the 3, against the grain of the track.  supposed he ran the exact same race, exerting the exact same effort, but did it on a day where speed was not carrying.  He would have run a better figure, let\'s say maybe a 1.  Now, with a 0 or 1 in his last prep, you would have him potentially as a top contender heading into the derby.  Sorry, but that is dogmatic to me and makes no sense.  That feels like \"kool aid\".  

You have to look at how a figure is earned and the whole pattern manufacturing thing that got some steam a few years back with Street Sense and his last prep before the Derby is a bit like voodoo, at least to me.  

If Top billing did pair up, against the grain, he gets a small bump up from my initial view on him.  If he runs better next time out, on a fair surface, I won\'t be fearing a bounce heading into the Derby.  I will make a bigger correction in my thinking about how much the bias hurt him on Saturday.  Frankly, I strongly believe the track was heavily slanted towards speed, but I struggle offsetting that with what i believe was a perfect trip that Rosario gave the horse, sitting of an intense duel, and the horse lacked punch late.  Tough to reconcile the two, which is why I need to see his next race before I move him off the \"medium list\" onto either the \"short list\" or the \"dead list\".  (with all the Risen Star runners - yes, Tread, perhaps I will be wrong again about that race, but I will let all those horses beat me for sure next time out)

Jim

[FrankD.]

Hey Jimbo,

Shug has already mentioned the Wood as a possibility depending on how the Gulf strip is playing and the NY weather. He has to get the points to get in.

I agree with your pattern assessment 100 % on Top Billing although not as concerned with him not closing on the top 2 in the FOY as you are. He looks like a healthy progressing 3 yr old who we know can get the Derby distance. If he did earn a TG 3 or 3.5 that\'s a healthy move under adverse conditions per his running style. A move to to 2 or 1.5 in his last prep would potentially have him sitting in a good spot on May 3rd. If that means anything in weaving through 19 other horses from last?

Good luck,

Frank D.

[TGJB]

Jimbo- when did they pass the rule you had to make lists before the draw?

[jimbo66]

Well TGJB

Since u are charging 25 bucks multiple times, months in advance of the race, I would have assumed u were aware of the whole derby futures concept.....

I don\'t want to clutter your board, so perhaps I will send u a private message explaining how they work........

Jim

[covelj70]

all totally totally reasonable points

that said, I think if he was good enough to win the derby, he would have been good enough to overcome whatever bias there was (like Normandy Invasion did and ORb did and, etc, etc).

He only has 1 race left to improve let\'s not forget

what I really don\'t understand about all of the bias stuff is that if there was such a bias, why was Normandy Invasion able close into it?

and if the answer to that is, well, he is just that much better of a horse than the others, then my question is why do we think Top Billing is so great if he couldn\'t overcome it?

[jimbo66]

Jim

Normandy invasion was running against allowance nw1 horses who were 10+ lengths slower than him. Based on how every other horse that was part of last years derby pace ran, no surprise how well he ran. (The injury was a question)

Top billing was running against peers with figures just as good as his.  Considering he was facing a top field, expecting him to overcome the bias the way Normandy did is a very high hurdle.

I am not defending a horse I don\'t love.  Strange game......

Jim

[FrankD.]

Jim,

I don\'t think anyone especially FD is saying Top Billing is anything super special. We\'re all grabbing at straws at this point!

IMHO he is a nicely bred horse for a classic distance, has a trainer that will bring him along as he is ready and is merely progressing nicely.

Heck this could easily be a Mine that Bird, Super Saver or Giacomo year. although Affirmed did win the last Triple Crown in a Chinese Year of the Horse!

Good luck,

Frank.

[covelj70]

Jimbo and Frand D.

Both totally valid points and I appreciate you guys making them

I do love how we now have Jimbo on the run defending his bullish views on a horse he doesn\'t even like that much, I am really proud of that move

[miff]

Andrew Beyer: Fountain of Youth result confirms bias

Wildcat Red (right) and General a Rod hung tough in the Fountain of Youth, but their performances were likely aided by a strong Gulfstream Park speed bias.
HALLANDALE BEACH, Fla. – Some of the nation's promising 3-year-olds raced at Gulfstream Park Saturday and put on an exciting show. Wildcat Red won a dramatic head-and-head stretch duel to beat General a Rod in the Fountain of Youth Stakes. Constitution, who may be trainer Todd Pletcher's best 3-year-old, ran away from a strong field in an allowance race. They all established their credentials as Kentucky Derby contenders. Or did they?
Sometimes a high-profile race or racing card illustrates principles of the game so perfectly that they become a textbook lesson in handicapping. The events at Gulfstream make a case study into track biases – detecting their existence and judging their effect on races.
From the 1970s into the 1990s, powerful biases regularly dictated the results at certain tracks: Front-runners on the rail dominated at Pimlico and Keeneland; horses swooping wide on the turn won at Belmont. But the game has changed in the last decade or two. Track superintendents are more aware of biases and learned how to eradicate them. Even so, horseplayers think they see biases everywhere. Some believe that the Gulfstream Park strip has been speed-favoring for most of the season. I would contend that the success of speed horses is not necessarily due to a bias. While Gulfstream has an abundance of horses who fill fields for grass races, its dirt races have been underpopulated. Last Thursday its five dirt races drew fields of 7, 6, 7, 7, and 5. The chances of a front-runner are enhanced in a small field – there are fewer rivals to put pressure on him – and on Thursday three of these races were won by front-runners. They paid $5, $7.60, and $3.20, all logical results that had little to do with the racing surface.
[ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays]
Biases are revealed by results that appear illogical: A faint-hearted runner goes to the front and pulls away from the field. Horses battle for the lead at a suicidal pace, yet they keep on going strong instead of dying in the stretch.
Gulfstream carded six races on dirt Saturday, and five of them were won by the front-runner. The exception hardly counts: Normandy Invasion, a 1-5 favorite against an overmatched field, would have won under any circumstances, and he had no difficulty rallying past his rivals.
In the other races before the Fountain of Youth:
* Social Inclusion, a first-time starter who had worked blazingly fast and earned rave reviews from clockers, blasted from the gate and dominated a maiden race.
* Global Strike, a Pletcher-trained maiden, was a justified 3-5 favorite and led all the way.
* Onlyforyou, Pletcher's undefeated 3-year-old filly, led all the way to win the Davona Dale Stakes as the even-money favorite.
* Constitution, who had made his debut last month with a display of great speed, found himself in an allowance devoid of front-runners. He popped from the gate and went to the lead, as his main rival, Tonalist, chased in vain.
Four front-running winners, four logical results. If any horseplayer had told me there was a "speed bias," I would have laughed. And then came the Fountain of Youth.
Wildcat Red had scored four previous victories, all in sprints. He's the son of a sprinter, and there was ample reason to doubt that he would be effective in 1 1/16-mile stakes. General a Rod is a speedster, too (albeit one with a more robust pedigree) and he was also trying to go two turns for the first time. Accordingly, the crowd made a solid favorite of Top Billing, a proven distance runner and a strong finisher.
When the gate opened, the riders on Wildcat Red and General a Rod both had the same idea: Use the horse's speed and go to the lead. They were head and head from the start. On the backstretch Luis Saez was putting Wildcat Red under an all-out drive and setting a breathtaking pace: three-quarters in 1:10.13. General a Rod stayed glued to him. After the two colts turned into the stretch, they figured to collapse. They didn't.
They battled to the wire, with Wildcat Red winning the photo. Top Billing, who had advanced to third on the turn, barely gained on them in the stretch. Two horses with uncertain stamina engage in the most grueling of duels and neither one of them weakens? In my opinion, this would not have happened on a normal racing surface. This outcome had to be the result of a strong speed-favoring bias, and its existence prompts a reevaluation of everything that happened on the dirt at Gulfstream Saturday.
Even though the top two finishers earned Beyer Speed Figures of 101, the best by any 3-year-olds in the nation, I would view their performances as a bias-produced aberration and would be prepared to bet against them when they run again. The track may have been an excuse for Top Billing, but – bias or no bias – he should have mustered more of a rally than he did. His was a disappointing effort.
When Constitution won his allowance race, he looked as if he might be establishing himself as the star of his generation. But with the evidence he raced over a strongly speed-favoring surface, his effort appears less impressive. He still has to prove himself under fairer conditions. However, the horses behind Constitution deserve an upgrade. Tonalist, bounced around as he left the gate, raced four wide around the first turn. With Constitution loose on the lead in front of him, Joe Bravo had to alter the colt's preferred stretch-running style and try to chase the leader. His second-place finish was commendable under the circumstances. So, too, was the performance of Mexikoma, who broke from the disadvantageous outside post, raced wide around both turns and rallied from last place to finish third. The 3-year-olds with the brightest futures may not be the ones who were in the winner's circle Saturday.

[covelj70]

Well, given that this whole discussion is about picking a Derby winner, I feel compelled to highlight that his track record on this front isn\'t excactly stellar!!!!

(all in good fun of course)