Donn

[sekrah]

I\'m playing Romansh. Good luck guys.

[TreadHead]

Fair points Phil, but like you said, with the limited sample space I\'m willing to still keep an eye on him.  Someone was saying they sealed the track before/after the 10th and it may have really favored front-enders during the Donn, which makes WTCs effort very impressive.  I think Revo should switch to FG or wait for CD for a fairer shot.

[jimbo66]

Tread

Sour grapes.  Revolutionary was awful.  Period.  

Track played fair all day, favoring closers, if anything.  Yesterday the track played to speed, not today.  

Winner ran huge.   As did runner up.  Runner up showed gate speed, which is a sign he is really developing.  I don\'t think it affected the outcome, but a poor move by Saez sitting a beautiful pocket trip, to take off the rail, and create a 4 wide run.   When he left the spot, the 7 drafted in beautifully, albeit with no horse in the stretch. Could have been a helluva stretch run if Saez stayed the course.

Where these last two races for Lea came from, I have no idea.  But that was a real fast race.

[miff]

Lea got a 114 Beyer, way into neg territory on TG. Tough to evaluate race after track maintenance sealed it before the Donn then harrowed it producing very glib surface.

WTC, who I never liked, very legit but still seems to be one who\'s comfort zone is outside of horses,launching wide.Rosario perfect rider for WTC.

[Silver Charm]

WTC vanned in. 20 hour trip and adjusted to 40 degree temperature and 40% humidity increase. Iron Horse will run anywhere on anything under nearly any conditions.

[jimbo66]

No matter they did or didn\'t do to the track, hard to imagine any scenario where the top two didn\'t run HUGE.

There were lots of horses with established form in the race.  And the top two spread eagled the field, with a huge gap to the rest.  

Unless everybody else went back incredibly badly, which is unlikely, the top two ran huge numbers, irrespective of harrowed, scraped, sealed, etc.etc.  It is just a matter of how huge.  And I am not sure it matters, whether it was 114 or 110 beyer or negative 3 or negative 5.  

WTC has proven he doesn\'t need to be on a specific track to run big.  Wondering about Lea, although he doesn\'t really have the profile of a \"Gulfstream wonder\".

Jim

[richiebee]

Hey Jim:

To hear you talk about older horses at this time of year is alarming.

Hope it doesn\'t mean you\'re off the Derby trail.

JB hasn\'t chimed in yet with his annual \"Jeez,relax, its still 90 days out.\"

Take any future positions? Have any Derby thoughts?

[miff]

Jim,

Quite a few of the contenders,going in,X\'d so its not that plain to me.A 23.4 split after a quickish 6f,unheard of, surface cement like,me thinks.

WTC was never on the rail itself so that may be why the 7 rushed up along side him on the fence.Saez may not have wanted to risk getting trapped down inside.

WTC hard trier but have to see him make early position from an outside post to think he\'s becoming more tactical.

Agree it\'s negative TG -3 or -4ish and an excellent performance by both.

Mike

[big18741]

I don\'t think Lukas really expected him to win yesterday.Hopeful but not confident from listening to his interviews this week.Seems like his next two the Santa Anita and Oaklawn Handicaps are what Lukas would really be after with WTC.

Lukas was probably thrilled with the result and even happier to get back to the shitty Arkansas weather and Strong Mandate.

WTC was off a layoff,giving six pounds to the winner and Gulfstream with it\'s short stretch is probably the worst track for him.Still,Lea had to run a big race to beat him.

WTC is so big he probably needs a race or two to get in top shape.
Really good horse but he\'s not a great athlete.
In traffic and on the turns are not where he does his best running.

[Silver Charm]

He was dressed in blue jeans and a white button down. Not exactly his $3K 3-piece suit. The horse vanned in late and probably aired out his lungs and got a good heavy sweat out of the effort. Heading back to Oaklawn today....

[jimbo66]

Richie,

Hope things are well with you.  You are right, we only have a few weeks left to start a heated thread with lots of \"strong opinions\" about Derby horses where TGJB does his \"its only February, calm down\" comment.

I did peruse the pool this weekend for \"value\" in the Derby futures, as the wounds are just now healing from the Quality Road / I Want Revenge position I had a few years back.

I don\'t have a strong opinion as the horse I was most interested in, Midnight Hawk, laid an egg this weekend.  I thought he would dust that field, if he was a solid horse, and he ran awful.  BTW, Baffert\'s gets an \"F\" for post-race comments after poor performances this weekend.  Game on Dude flops and he says he only has one way to run and when they go that fast early, it is dangerous.  Since when can\'t that horse sit 2nd off a quick pace and take the lead on the turn?  And then he says Midnight Hawk was a \"little rank early\".  How about he was shitty all the way through the race.  I think that was a more accurate description.  I do think Game on Dude may be done as that race was too bad to be true, but Mike Smith was horrific and should be sobriety tested after that ride.  I wondered at first if perhaps the horse was rank and he couldn\'t hold him back, but then I watched the replay in slow motion.  Blue Skies outbreaks him, but Dude gets into the second slot rather easily but Smith pushes on him to go after the leader?  WTF?  No clock in his head?  Just a brutally bad ride and I guess he got a pass from commentators for being a HOFer, but that looked like an apprentice at Charlestown.

Anyway, back to futures.  Haven\'t seen anybody with anything remotely close to the run that Shared Belief has, but who knows with the injury, delayed start, dirt, etc.etc.  

Not as big a fan as Honor Code as others.  Thought he was over-rated before the slow start this year, and now that he is off schedule, he can\'t be my derby horse.  (he was gifted the Remsen with a bad ride by Saez.  Yes, getting grumpy, complaining about bad rides, but watch the Remsen, I would have given 10-1 that Cairo Prince would be closer to the glacial pace than Honor Code.  then Saez hand rode in the stretch, thinking the race was over).  

Cairo Prince was nice at gulf, but seems shaky at 1 1/4 to me.

The Sadler horse, Candy Boy,  that I didn\'t like this weekend was sort of impressive, not so much that he won off a beautiful trip, but the way he seemed to level off and stride out late, indicating that he will relish longer distances.  One to keep an eye on.

Good luck,

Jim

[BitPlayer]

The interesting thing (at least to me) is that, because of ground loss and a little bit of weight, Candy Boy should get only the 3rd best TG figure in the race, behind the two Bafferts.

[ajkreider]

I think everyone was awed by the gallop out.  It\'s not too often you see a half-mile work immediately following a mile and 1/16 stakes race.

[jimbo66]

Bit,

While u may be right, it will be a phony wide figure, at least as far as midnight hawk goes.   Never looked good.  Showed no kick at all and shut down 20 yards past the wire.  Put an x through him.  A non contender for the classics IMO.

As for Chitu.  Not as sure.  I thought he ran as well as the winner, for sure, maybe a tad better, all things considered.  

However, coming from somebody who pays more attention to my mother in law\'s nagging than to gallop outs, that was one helluva gallop out by the winner.

Jim

[phil23]

Read an article by Stevens today that said he was thinking that Candy Boy would bypass SanFelipe and therefore he intentionally got into him after the wire for another 1/8th (or even a bit more he said). So it was definitely planned.

Tangentially (or not even), notice how EVERY big winner\'s trainer has basically said they\'re only doing two preps. Where ever could they have got that idea...