Can someone please explain?

[mikjul]

Can someone please tell me what nugget of handicapping wisdom (or what seminar/training manual I missed that has me thinking Majestic City crushes Summer Hit in the GG 7th today? If I honestly think Summer hit has any chance I don\'t play the race. What am I doing wrong?

[Tavasco]

Some non speed figure considerations

1) Summer Hit is proven at todays surface and distance. Majestic City is unproven @ GG and 1+1/16m distance.

2) The 9/27/2013 race raises soundness questions. The August race @DMR is more neutral than encouraging (IMO) even though it was against tougher. The October race is ? may have been helped by an early speed bias.

3) Typically only the good ones string wins. Majestic City hasn\'t earned such a distinction yet. His last could signal end of the line as easily as in form.

4) I think Ellis is best off a Layoff when a better price is possible. However in this race 2.9/1 seems fair if you think the horse is sitting on its race and most importantly if you think he can get the added distance.

5) You may have been outridden, why doesn\'t Valdivia push Baze earlier. Probably because they aren\'t sure Majestic City can get the last 1/16th.

[Rick B.]

mikjul Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Can someone please tell me what nugget of
> handicapping wisdom (or what seminar/training
> manual I missed that has me thinking Majestic City
> crushes Summer Hit in the GG 7th today? If I
> honestly think Summer hit has any chance I don\'t
> play the race. >>What am I doing wrong?<<

Race selection is a strong candidate. How was there
going to be any value in your scenario, if you did
get it home?

$6.50 exacta? Come on, you can do better...at a track
named Anywhere Else.

[mikjul]

Thanks for taking the time to respond. I appreciate the analysis and the ride back to earth. I sometimes get a little excited when I see something that sticks out(to me). I should have looked deeper. Thanks again.