MIFF?

[miff]

Mike,

Thanks, what did you expect from a 2nd generation 3/4 Sicilian raised in Williamsburg Brooklyn, proper Italian?

Paesano Cuomo should worry anyone financially involved in NY racing as well as us card carrying racing degenerates.

Odds that he shows up at the SPA on Travers Day? Anyone?

Mike

[richiebee]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Mike,
>
> Thanks, what did you expect from a 2nd generation
> 3/4 Sicilian raised in Williamsburg Brooklyn,
> proper Italian?
>
> Paesano Cuomo should worry anyone financially
> involved in NY racing as well as us card carrying
> racing degenerates.
>
> Odds that he shows up at the SPA on Travers Day?
> Anyone?
>
> Mike


How about the odds on two current candidates being there:

Elliot \"the Love Gov\" Spitzer and Anthony \"A-Wad\" Weiner?

They will be joining Silver Charm in promoting Saratoga County\'s Chamber of
Commerce campaign for 2013 -- \"Get a Room!\"

[moosepalm]

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

>
> How about the odds on two current candidates being
> there:
>
> Elliot \"the Love Gov\" Spitzer and Anthony \"A-Wad\"
> Weiner?
>
> They will be joining Silver Charm in promoting
> Saratoga County\'s Chamber of
> Commerce campaign for 2013 -- \"Get a Room!\"


Mark Sanford just got elected to Congress, four years after his stroll down the Appalachian Trail.  No politician has the rock star appeal of Bill Clinton.  Wrap yourself in the flag, and talk about mom, apple pie, and getting some on the side.  Appears to be the easiest way in the world to rehabilitate a political career.

[miff]

Please start another string, as Jerry is required to pay me for each Miff post.

[high roller]

Board on Fire - Since the Great Miff Returns!

[TGJB]

You guys left out Vitter, who is far worse than the others.

[catcapper]

P-Dub Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

>
> There are great betting opportunities on all
> surfaces, synthetics included.  I love me some
> turf racing as much as anybody, but
> Hollywood/Arlington/Woodbine, etc... can yield
> some tremendous prices that are very gettable.


P, what you say is tempting and very fair as usual.

I guess I am a purist at best and a pointy stickler at worst. But I am never so hardcore or close-minded that I can't be persuaded.

I have watched races on synthetic. The horses, to me, just look different running. I don't think they stride out the same. I didn't enjoy it at all. (And where is mjellish?!? He has a great eye. I would love to hear what he thinks about synthetics.)

I admire those who can watch multiple tracks and surfaces. I would have to change my whole methodology to do that and it would take more time than I now have. And it would require significant additional  pre-race investment. Given my personal methodology for handicapping, I can barely make the time to study 3 or 4 races a day. I can spend an hour or more handicapping one race, horse by horse. With turf, I can at least study a race and figure out who will be around in the end. I stick to 1M to 1 1/8M for the most part. The bigger the field the better. I prefer 1 1/6 to  1 1/18. If I look at 3 or 4 races a day, if they are available at my tracks, I may only feel good about 1 or 2. So my opportunities are very self-limited. Too many strange things happen on dirt, and I am not a 6f 'capper for the most part. I follow a certain circuit, Belmont in spring and fall, Gulfstream in the winter. By concentrating on one circuit, I get to know a lot about the trainers and jocks and those nuances pay off. Hence, Saratoga is so tough for me because there are so many trainers and jocks from all over coming to that meet. But it is a must-watch meet. This year I watched Churchill in the spring. Had really good success there.  

So far, I just don't believe that synthetics are as much the answer as they are promoted to be. There are other trade-offs that don't get equal and fair attention. And synthetic surfaces are very easy to manipulate for speed or no speed, good lanes, bad.  I would think being the manager of a track crew with a synthetic surface is more nerve racking than that of a dirt one.  I say that because a synthetic track must stay consistent to prove its worthiness. And yes, I know, dirt can be manipulated too, but synthetics more easily - from what I understand- and I acknowledge I am no expert but neither do I have a vested interest.  

But, if anything these days could persuade me to bet synthetics, it would be this weather!! Massive green blobs everyday moving up the east coast...sigh. This darn weather is beating me more than anything. Hmmm....

As always, thanks P.

(Sorry Miff, but I hope JB is paying you by the word!)

[moosepalm]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> You guys left out Vitter, who is far worse than
> the others.


It\'s Louisiana.  I assume it to be a prerequisite.

[Lost Cause]

catcapper Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
 Saratoga is so tough
> for me because there are so many trainers and
> jocks from all over coming to that meet. But it is
> a must-watch meet.

Anybody else have this problem with Saratoga because I do,  I love to go there and watch all the talent running there but I don\'t think in the decades I have played the place that I came out ahead over a meet.  Every race has a bunch of horses that can win and I\'m a multi-race wager guy so it can get expensive quick and you know i\'m going to drop the wrong \"A\" horse to make the cost fit my pocket..Anybody have tips for betting Saratoga?...  I know P-Dub, there are a lot of other races out there to play...and that has been the approach I have taken but I really would like to figure out what i\'m doing wrong..

[Lost Cause]

BTW, Welcome back Miff..The board needs your handicapping knowledge and back door politics knowledge of racing

[FrankD.]

Lost,

Forgive the pun but it\'s very easy to get lost in this meet. Everyone wants to run up here and everyone wants to win up here; throw in the number of 2 year old races as well as turf races that you\'re never sure if they will stay on or off due to afternoon thunderstorms.

This will be my 40th consecutive meet, my Grandfather took me to see the great Secretariat get beat in the 1973 Whitney by Onion for my first visit as an almost 15 year old wide eyed kid. I was hooked; my Grandfather had seats every Wednesday and Saturday for 60 years for the then 24 day meet.I\'ve had many 24 for 24 years in daily attendance and normally since the expansion I\'m somewhere in the 30\'s out of the 40 days.

Turning a profit at this meet is an obsession with me and many years the ROI equates to a less then minimum wage job if you count the hours of capping and the daily expenses of attending live. T-graph book and DRF as well as a pocket program,(yes cat I to love to mark up my form and book old school style) parking, clubhouse admission, lunch at the Carolina BBQ and buying Richiebee\'s drinks makes me start the meet a minimum of 3 grand in the hole.I keep meticulous records of my wagers and expenses as I feel all daily players should; it can be a reality check big time for sure!!! Not to mention when you go into an IRS audit you had better be prepared to blow them away with more than a bag of losing tickets.

Jerry and Alan both constantly talk about trainer intent at this meet every Saturday & Sunday. Here on a daily basis you also have to deal with owner intent as well. Everyone wants to run on the weekends to get clubhouse seats for the big days; local ownership interests especially.

If you get a tip from a bartender, mens room attendant or from more than 2 people, TOSS IT. In my days as a daily AM fixture on the Oklahoma track and the back stretch I would routinely get touted by 3 & 4 outfits in the same race. They were all betting their money and all were sure they had the best horse in the race. I do all my work the night before and early mornings and will only tweak my wagers during the day via post parade appearances, odds or weather factors. There are way too many distractions in the social atmosphere up here; particularly the fillies!

The 2 year old races which almost always encompass 3 of the 8 races on the daily pick 4 menu have become increasingly difficult mainly due to the plethora of Pletcher 3 and 4 to 5 shots that are almost always live. You are really forced to spread in these races if you want to find any pick 3 or 4 value. I\'ve found that the T-graph data on the dams side of the breeding has been especially helpful in finding a price horse and yes with any firster you are guessing.

Another big factor up here is the \"OUCHIE\" off the layoff with the back number; what to do with him or her? I blindly invoke the Covello rule of never letting the fastest horse in the race beat you in a horizontal wager, throw it onto your ticket.

Shippers are everywhere every day; a lot of the old timers used to say give\'em a race over the track and bet them 2nd out. Where do they come from and why are they here? Intent again, it\'s expensive to ship up here and stay up here. For whatever reason shippers from various locations seem to be hot and cold from year to year for no particular rhyme or reason. Some years the Kentucky outfits kill them others they are ice cold. I pay particular attention to Woodbine, Maryland, Suffolk and Finger Lakes horses. Although it was a much better angle when the bottom claiming price at this meet was 25k and Richie\'s favorite PJ Campo wasn\'t writing soooooo many NY bred turf sprints. It used to be a huge step up in class for these horses; today sometimes they are actually dropping if you read the condition closely.

It\'s a tough meet for sure but it does get my blood flowing and believe it or not; I can be a tad bit emotional and irrational about my Spa days. TGJB was ready to call 911 on me a couple of times last year, particularly when Jackson Bend did not run 2nd to Pacific Ocean on opening day last year!!!!!

7 days and a wake up to opening day and let\'s hope for a break in the weather.
I look forward to seeing all the weekend warriors in what has turned into a cult like atmosphere every Saturday & Sunday at the seminars or are they handicapping discussions? I get confused!!!!

Good luck,

Frank D.

[miff]

A look at the SPA from an \"old\" Kool Aid drinkers perspective!

1.NYRA hell bent on perception so there will probably be extra security and targeted trainers for scrutiny. This may or may not be \"announced\" Downstate attempt at catching Jacobson bombed but feel he shot his load and will have it tough up there with his weakish over raced stock.

2.TAP and Chad Brown pointed for this meet and both loaded.Castellano, Rosario sitting on tons and probably live with everything.Edgar Prado has some nice business lined up and bears watching as he does not get bet.Anna Rose will get huge support and be overbet, can really ride though and will be live.Owner Ramsey brings a load of horses but this ain\'t CD or winter Gulf. Interested  to see if this outfit dominates,thinking not.

3.Condition book for early days loaded with turf sprints.Monster purses being given away at this meet with new outfits showing up.

4. Watch for horses with recent dark form that previously ran well at the SPA, sure to be a few that hit as bombs.Simple look at TG figs from last SPA meet a must.

5. Forever and always outside post at 1 1/8 mile poison unless a horse has high speed to avoid wide turn,very short run to first turn.Inside positional speed and inside out trip huge edge that distance.

6. Must haves:Mike Welch new SPA work reports(no longer free) and access to Maggie\'s comments on body language and overall appearance. NYRA too dumb to expand her pre race air time and cut down redundant analysis.

7.Mutual pools huge,esp on weekends,loads of soft money,like mine,in there.SPA meet worth an extra swing!

Good luck to all and be kind to the old guy cursing and mumbling in the back yard, that\'s me.

[drbillym]

Great post Miff.  Regarding Ramsey, I agree that his success rate here will not match that in Kentucky.  Heard much of his success there was due to his horses being on his nearby farm where he has his own hyperbaric oxygen facility and a shockwave machine(which is not allowed on track).

[TGJB]

Miff-- Whoa, slow down. Welsch is doing daily workout reports for Saratoga?

The single biggest and most interesting question is Ramsey, I\'ll be watching not just for whether they win but whether they run tops. And I\'ll be looking at Maker\'s runners for other owners by the same ctriteria.

Given how Ramsey ran his mouth trash talking Repole he seems to think they\'re going to be firing.

[miff]

Drbill

NYRA is trying to control the use of such equipment,but many farms have Hy-chambers, ESW therapies. Awful lot of people think it\'s very helpful to quicker recovery by horses.

Suggestions that pre race  disclosure of the use of such things on a long list of greater transparency info for the players. Probably will be ignored by the neantherthals running the game.

Mike