Meanwhile...

[TreadHead]

Does 2yr old foundation matter when we start talking about sequential -2s or better in a spring 3yr old season?  And does running in a couple maiden races really count as \"foundation\"?

I\'m not saying he\'s going to bounce out of the Preakness, with the group coming to meet him he can regress and win.  But if he does fire a 3rd negative, like many in his position have done in the past decade, you have to start wondering if he comes out of the Belmont ever able to race again, because there are many that have been down a similar path and suffered the same fate.

[bellsbendboy]

Huge factor Richie.

Years ago a sixty day vacation allowing juveniles to \"grow up\" was a good elixir for what ailed them and many Derby winners had such a rest.  Orb had not one but two such benchings.

Another was ownership pressure; Shug had none while TAP had a bunch.

For me, only four possible horses could win Saturday and they ran 1,3,4 and Verrazano.  Three of those were undefeated around a couple of bends and Normandy Invasion certainly had had some troubles.

As for the Preakness Orb surely bounces and while he may still win it is tough to take short odds given that hypothesis.  bbb

[FrankD.]

He also ran in 2 Allowance races at Laurel the preceding Saturday\'s to the Met Mile. 4 races in 3 weeks; then syndicated for a record 48 million dollars.

[jimbo66]

BBB and tread,


We can certainly agree to disagree.  

But u both post like my views on Verrazano\'s distance ability and wood memorial are outlandish.  Right or wrong, I am in the majority with those views and u two are the outliers.

This horse\'s bandwagon emptied almost completely after the wood, with most questioning his declining figures as the distances got longer.

We can revisit this if and when the horse races again.  I doubt we see him over 1 mile and would offer 5-1 on him running in the travers.

Now, just to clean up someas past opinions tread head, one of us liked Verrazano to win the derby and one of us went on this board in march with orb as the winner. Our respective batting averages are not the same right now.

Good luck

Jim

[richiebee]

TreadHead Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Does 2yr old foundation matter when we start
> talking about sequential -2s or better in a spring
> 3yr old season?  And does running in a couple
> maiden races really count as \"foundation\"?

Orb ran four times as a 2YO. To get ready for the first of those starts,
he undertook stamina building gallops and a progression of slow works
which got increasingly longer. All in all,between training and racing, there are
probably a lot more miles on Orb\'s odometer than some of his later starting rivals.

No horseplayer or horseman could say with any seriousness that a 2YO foundation
(racing and training) is not an advantage for a 3YO who is tackling a series of 3
demanding races in 5 weeks. Go back to the \"Decade of Champions\": Secretariat,
Affirmed and Spectacular Bid were all multiple Graded Stakes winners as
2YOs; Seattle Slew was relatively lightly raced as a 2YO (three starts), but he
did win the Champagne Stakes.


> I\'m not saying he\'s going to bounce out of the
> Preakness, with the group coming to meet him he
> can regress and win.  But if he does fire a 3rd
> negative, like many in his position have done in
> the past decade, you have to start wondering if he
> comes out of the Belmont ever able to race again,
> because there are many that have been down a
> similar path and suffered the same fate.

Look back at Easy Goer\'s 3YO campaign: Won the Swale at GP, won
the Gotham, won the Wood, second Derby, second Preakness, wins Belmont. He was
probably a tired colt after the Belmont, and he always had ankle issues, but he
came back to win the Whitney, the Travers, the Woodward and the Jockey Club Gold
Cup before finishing second in the BC Classic to arch rival Sunday Silence.

Let\'s see what Shug can do here.

[TreadHead]

While all that may be true Jimbo, your track record for successful opinions this spring (and others) hasn\'t exactly been stellar outside of this one example.  We don\'t need to bore others on this board by rehashing your opinions on any of the Louisiana horses this spring, or the whole \"never passed horses in the stretch\" discussion, but for you to make this post about the one time you were right without acknowledging the many things you were wrong about this spring or other springs is pretty laughable.

I don\'t ever remember being asked to provide a formal selection prior to the race, and while I clearly like Verrazano a lot and continue to like him a lot going forward, I am not so stubborn as to not be able to adjust my views when I hear all the training reports and other backside feedback closer to the race.  I had Orb and Verrazano as my only \"A\" horses in the race, and like many others had (in order) Revolutionary, Normandy Invasion, IMLD, and Overanalyze as by \"B\" horses.

You are welcome to read the pre-race analysis I put together every year for a large group of friends, which is largely based on Thorograph figures and knowledge gained from reading this board over the last 15 years, but some other things as well.  Send me a DM if you are interested.  These were the comments I made about Orb and Verrazano in that writeup.

KEY WIN CONTENDERS

 16  Orb

I had to promote this horse into the first tier after mud came into the picture and after reading all the reports of how well he has been training at Churchill Downs.  His pedigree is loaded with ability to handle mud and is also reasonably suited for the extra distance here, at least compared to most of the other horses.  There are some concerns about his large jump-up in performance figures early this spring, which sometimes have a tendency to knock horses out for a bit.  

But all indications based on training are that he is in as good a shape as he's ever been, and if he can duplicate his Florida numbers from this spring, he will be right there at the end.  The fact that he's never run a big number outside of Gulfstream Park is another potential negative, which is why I had given an edge to Verrazano off his winning races at 3 different tracks already, before seeing Verrazano's training.  After seeing how hot Orb's jockey, Joel Rosario, has been riding lately, I had to make the full switch over to making Orb a top co-contender.

Some people incorrectly label this horse a closer, he does not drop to the back of the field and close like Normandy Invasion or Java's War.  He is a pace presser and actually has run his fastest splits in the earlier part of a route race on more than one occasion, it is simply an optical illusion when the front-end speed dies off and he is still moving at a good enough rate to go by them.  This pressing style means the possibility for traffic problems is a bit higher than an earlier horse like Verrazano, but he is more likely to work out a good trip than some of the dead closers, which makes him a relative positive compared to those horses as well.  As soon as the weather forecast made it appear that slop or mud is a virtual certainty and after Verrazano galloped less than ideally (showing signs of rankness and being washed out), I decided that leaving Orb as my top choice was the right thing to do.

14  Verrazano

I was ready to key this horse as my only win contender until the possibility of rain entered the forecast.  On a fast, dry track, I didn't think there is any beating this horse.  He has a huge Thorograph figure he ran several months ago and his connections have done a great job of keeping him wrapped up since then and not doing too much.  He did end up winning his other Derby prep races in spite of that, but his last 2 were not nearly as impressive as a race he ran in February.  If he duplicates his race from February he is a clear winner.  He has everything I'm looking for in a running style and pedigree, abundant tactical speed and plenty of stamina on the female side.

He is a very relaxed horse, getting to top speed very easily and is extremely physically imposing.  This leads me to believe that he will be able to last longer than some of the smaller horses under tiring/long distance conditions.  With his tactical speed, he should not get caught up in any of the traffic issues that many of the horses further back are likely to encounter, and this is a huge plus in this field full of so many closers.  I would have thought he is a clear winner here under normal circumstances.

But after turning in some nice workouts here last week, he has shown up somewhat agitated and overly sweaty (a.k.a washed out) during his gallops this week, and that is out of character for this horse.  While the trainer doesn't seem too concerned, I'm wondering if he might be a step off his best, and sometimes you have to let real-world appearance override what you see on paper.  Another potential negative in his pedigree is ability to handle mud.  While his pedigree isn't necessarily bad for it, it isn't that great either and there are many others that should definitely like it.  Several other people might try to give you other negatives on this horse, like they won't think he can get the distance, he keeps winning races by a shorter margin, but those are all red herring excuses.  Though I'm not going to completely shift my opinion on him due to the questionable appearance, I learned my lesson last year and if things to not appear to be 100% going into the race, it is time to call an audible and also consider the best looking horse.  I'm not getting off Verrazano completely, and still think it's very possible he will run well, but Orb (and his jockey) are just doing too well right now and these are my co-choices for now.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Now if you want to go ahead and claim some sort of victory based on what has been posted only on this board, if the contest is purely picking the winner in the Derby, you certainly have that right.  But I think the one thing we can all agree on is, truly honest horseplayers have more than their fair share of incorrect opinions on a fairly regular basis.

As for Verrazano, I was more thinking something like the Haskell for him, again, there is absolutely nothing on the record that indicates he would have any sort of trouble at that distance.  The Travers would largely depend on whether or not he can get back to his Feb form and who else is in the race.  If the field ends up as poor as last year\'s was, I have absolutely no problem saying he would have a really good chance winning that race (assuming no physical issues).

[TreadHead]

But graded stakes winners at 2 dont win the Derby much any more, times have changed.  I think I posted this last week, 14 of the last 24 horses making up the super the past 6 years never even attempted stakes races at 2 yrs old.

Easy Goer is Easy Goer, but I\'m not sure his sheet contained multiple races of negative 2 or better so close together (maybe it did, I have no idea).  But I do know that whether a TC contender has \"solid foundation\" at 2 yrs old or not has not made a bit of difference during recent TC runs where the contender had multiple very large figures.

You\'ve got Big Brown who had very little foundation, was lightly raced, and using the argument that frequently pops up in the seminar, being lightly raced had as good a chance as any to try to put that many big figs together.  On the flip-side you have Smarty who won several stakes at 2, had more of the \"old-school\" approach you are talking about, and he couldn\'t get it done in the Belmont either.

I don\'t know if your implying that \"because it\'s Shug\" you think there is something he does that makes the big figures hurt less, but if you are, I would love to hear more about it.  Multiple big figures hurt, and this horse is going to have lots of them by the time he hits the Belmont.

[richiebee]

TreadHead Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> But graded stakes winners at 2 dont win the Derby
> much any more, times have changed.  I think I
> posted this last week, 14 of the last 24 horses
> making up the super the past 6 years never even
> attempted stakes races at 2 yrs old.

I do not bet superfectas; I basically go the horizontal route.
I used the example of the Champions to show that, unless the
breed has absolutely fell apart in 40 years, these 2YO stakes
winners were prolific at three and went on to more glory as 4YOs,
especially Spec Bid, whose 4YO season might have been as impressive
as any campaign by any horse of any age.
 
> Easy Goer is Easy Goer, but I\'m not sure his sheet
> contained multiple races of negative 2 or better
> so close together (maybe it did, I have no idea).
> But I do know that whether a TC contender has
> \"solid foundation\" at 2 yrs old or not has not
> made a bit of difference during recent TC runs
> where the contender had multiple very large
> figures.

I would really suggest that you look at the archives. It might
be difficult to translate the TG#s from the 80s and 90s to
today\'s #s, though JB might provide a meter. Monarchos I think
was the first Derby winner to go negative, lots of 80s and 90s
Derby winners with TG#s between \"5\" and \"2\"

If we are having a discussion where we take different sides of
an issue, also known as a debate, please understand I am not
claiming that there is no such thing as a knock out number, or
that \"multiple very large figures\" will have a long term effect
on some horses.

What I am saying is that (my opinion) is that horses with 2YO foundation
(not necessarily stakes races, as you pointed out in your previous post
the lasix free Orb ran strictly in maiden races as a 2YO) are less likely
to be affected by \"multiple very large figures.\"
 
> You\'ve got Big Brown who had very little
> foundation, was lightly raced, and using the
> argument that frequently pops up in the seminar,
> being lightly raced had as good a chance as any to
> try to put that many big figs together.  On the
> flip-side you have Smarty who won several stakes
> at 2, had more of the \"old-school\" approach you
> are talking about, and he couldn\'t get it done in
> the Belmont either.

Smarty Jones only ran twice at 2, not a good example for the
point you or I am trying to make. The colt I like to consider
is Looking at Lucky. After six starts as a 2YO over synthetic,
he was very unlucky in the Derby but went on to bunch together
some negative numbers later in his 3YO season.
 
> I don\'t know if your implying that \"because it\'s
> Shug\" you think there is something he does that
> makes the big figures hurt less, but if you are, I
> would love to hear more about it.  Multiple big
> figures hurt, and this horse is going to have lots
> of them by the time he hits the Belmont.

[jimbo66]

Tread,

It was great reading your May 7th prediction of the Kentucky Derby.  Quite a contract with the weeks before where you trumpeted Normandy Invasion, and then when I pressed you on that opinion, you flipped to Verrazano.  May 7th is excellent timing to switch to Orb.

What is your view of Wise Dan\'s chances in the Woodford Reserve?  Any ideas on who might finish underneath him, so I can make exactas and triples?

I look forward to your May 21st view on the Preakness.  It should be interesting reading.

[Fairmount1]

Treadhead wrote today:  "I don\'t ever remember being asked to provide a formal selection prior to the race, and while I clearly like Verrazano a lot and continue to like him a lot going forward."

Treadhead how quickly you forget.  This (text below dated April 27, 2013) was written to you then and then you told JB "No worries TGJB, I am keeping my comments about the horses and my opinions on how they should be best analyzed, not getting sucked into stupid betting contests."

So what is it you are doing now Treadhead?  Hmmm.....

As for Verrazano, he is a classic Pletcher 3yo.  Either he will be retired real soon or he will run a race or two more.  Like him all you want but he is another Pletcher Gulfstream Winter Wonder that can't transfer his form outside Hallendale Beach muchless in the Derby.  You might look for him in next year's Gulfstream Park entries if you (he) is lucky.  

And you honestly stated you didn't remember being asked to provide a formal selection??  Wow.  
________________________________________________

Date: April 27, 2013 09:28PM
Fairmount1 wrote to Treadhead regarding Verrazano:

Is he your choice to win? Don\'t give me post position nonsense and the draw as far as speed inside and outside of him.

Is he your win selection? As favorite or second choice at worst? You planning on keying him or not? Let\'s hear it.

If you want to critique my opinion that\'s fine. But I say he isn\'t winning, I posted why. So are you saying he is winning? Let\'s hear it. If you don\'t now, then I want to hear a final decisioin after the draw but let\'s hear it now.

[catcapper]

If I may offer my opinion, I am of the thinking that while Orb may bounce, it won\'t be as bad as some might anticipate...vague statement I know, but what I really want to offer, is that I absolutely believe it is Mr. Shug\'s program that will make a benificial difference in how Orb will react to his big numbers. Yes, it\'s what he does, like give time when time is needed, they feed very well even boiling the horses\' flax, etc...but it is also what he doesn\'t do. There are no tricks, no gimmicks, no fillers, no air pumps used in that barn. The horse is real.
(The corollary to that statement is that it is the overuse allowed drugs that do as much harm as the ones that are not allowed.)

And I definitely agree that traditional winter turnout for 2yos before their 3yo season is KEY. Not only does it give their young bodies a freshening, it is good for their minds, equally imo I have seen enough young horses turned out for a couple of months in the 2yo winter to know that when they are bored with their turnout and want to get back to work, they will let you know. In my experience, any time from 6-9 weeks and you can see their behavior change. Their mind is not so much on grass, somewhere from inside of them they are craving action. They are young and fresh and far more often than not, return to training with a new enthusiasm. So yes, I for one believe firmly, Shug\'s way will make a difference in how Orb will react to his big numbers.

[TreadHead]

Yes, and you will notice that I never replied to your post.

Jimbo, my analysis was posted on my twitter feed 24 hrs before the race, I\'d be happy to provide you, or anyone else, a link.  And I never, ever, stated that Normandy Invasion would WIN the Derby, just that he might be a factor in it, which he was.

And as a matter of fact, the tri I gave out for the Woodford (after scratch of the 5) was 8 lone in first over 1,3,7 only, which paid $70

[TGJB]

Jimbo and Tread--

Anyone remember the old Saturday Night Live routines with Jane Curtin and Ackroyd?

\"Jane, you ignorant slut...\"

[ajkreider]

By \"can\'t transfer his form\", I\'m sure you mean to include, \"except in graded stakes in Tampa and New York\".

[TreadHead]

Flowers.....
Plumber ma\'am .........
Candygram ........

You\'re that clever shark aren\'t you?

I\'m only a dolphin ma\'am


Let\'s Go Stables tweeted today that Verrazano is doing fine and they are targeting the Haskell for him, and possibly a prep prior.  So all the haters can start saving their lunch money to bet against him.