Yesterday's preps

[jimbo66]

Treadhead,

We will just have to agree to disagree.  While I may be admittedly prematurely tossing all the Fairgrounds horses, I am 100% comfortable in my opinion that the Gulfstream comparisons are very good.  I could care less that Orb\'s final closing time was slowish, because the splits of the race were vicious.  Even a solid close, like his, would result in slowish raw times because all the horses were going faster than they needed to for the first 6 furlongs.

I am also as certain as I can be that Orb will be very comfortable with the 1 1/4 distance.  A belief I already held, but then was emboldened, when a very knowledgeable, albeit \"curmudgeonesque\" regular poster here told me Saturday before the race that Orb was his Belmont horse.  

Jim

[Wrongly]

According to Brown, he and owner Rick Porter are going to send Normandy Invasion to the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 6.

"He's run two of his four career starts there, and both of them were really good," Brown said. "It's a no-brainer, especially with him having only one shot now to get the points. He has a race under his belt now. We got a good race into him Saturday; he ran a strong last quarter. The race should set us up for start two off the layoff.

"However, we didn't earn any points, that's the bad thing. We knew going in, when we decided to run him only twice before the Derby, that we could be putting all our eggs in one basket in his second start. But we're still happy with that plan, because if we do earn our way in we'll have a horse third off the layoff that will be sitting on a new top. If I get there I want to get there with a chance to win. I don't want to go just to say I'm in the Derby."

[miff]

Connections always paint the best picture.NI did not have the big run he showed in the Remsen or prior race on Sat,empty all the way, looked to be gaining on a field that collapsed late(5 horses within 2 lengths at the wire)Very disappointing performance sans an apparent excuse.

Maybe the surface or was trained short coming in an excuse.Not the most robust colt and very weakly bred on the dam side.

Mike

[big18741]

Really interested to see how TG scores the Risen Star and who they work off of.

Winner was slow going in and saved all the ground but that has to be a new top.
Oxbow wide and giving weight what do you do with him?
Do you give Code West a pair and go from there?

Only conclusions I can draw are that Proud Strike and Mylute(perfect trip backed up in the stretch)ran bad and maybe Palace Malice needs blinkers given his start and stretch run.

As far as the top five go I\'m inclined to wait on the #\'s and see how they do in the next one stretching out to nine furlongs.Some of them might be okay.

[miff]

Big,

Beyer has it way fast, sucked in by the pedestrian paced Mark Valeski race and two other slow two turn races featuring slowish types(Ground Transport race at 1 mile 70 yds projects out well against MV race and Risen Star).Track speed in the race following the Risen Star,albeit a sprint,noteworthy.The slug that won the Risen Star ran past several through the lane confirming the common-ness of the performance of that field on the whole.Track condition may have been the culprit.

Lots of ground loss for several.Code West, Oxbow did the most \"running\" in there, Oxbow ugly wide trip early,used along the backside to gain contention, wide off the far turn.Code West very game, flanked and fighting most of the way.

Mike

[TGJB]

Time for my annual post.

IT\'S ONLY FEBRUARY, GUYS.

[miff]

IT\'S ONLY FEBRUARY, GUYS


Late Feb not the same anymore if you dont win an early 50 point prep JB,with many taking only 2 swings to get into the Derby.In the case of the much discusssed Normandy Invasion, he most likely has to win his next race to make it to the gate on Derby day.New Derby qualifying formula already has one top outfit rethinking 2 vs 3 preps, if the formula remains as is.


Mike

[TGJB]

He may only have to finish second in the Wood to get in. He evidently picked up 4 points in the Remsen, I think 44 would put him on the fence.

But that aside, what\'s being discussed here is who figures to be able to run WELL in the Derby, and the most important indicators of that take place in late March and April (as I think you have pointed out in the past as well). Even taking the trip out of it, that was Normandy\'s first start off a layoff, and he marched forward last year.

On the larger comment about the point system,the way they did it loads almost everything on the horses\' last two starts preps. That may in fact cause trainers to bring thm out later, depending on training style. Brown (the other one) is making a calculation that his colt will get back to his top next time out. If he\'s right he\'ll probably get in, and if he\'s wrong he\'ll have a big shot in the Preakness. If he doesn\'t get back to his top management is academic.

[miff]

Typical of the Clueless Clowns JB, UAE Derby and the Bluegrass(a turf race imo) have more point value than the FOY?

Agree that trainers are managing different to favor last high value point races. In the case of NI,he\'s not the most robust colt and I think that was also a contributing factor in 2 preps,as 3 may have taxed this one too much to have anything left for a big derby performance.

You may be aware that Brown,that one,is somewhat a sheet slave.

[miff]

Derby fever can make one delusional!



\"Owner Rick Porter said Normandy Invasion will have a new rider, yet to be determined.

"We were so much the best horse when you look at the race," Porter said. "We got beat a length and a half and must have spotted the leader 15 lengths, by the time we finished stumbling, then going wide. The winner was the one horse behind us. We made our move together between the half-mile pole and three-eighths pole. He (Ive Struck a Nerve) went the good route....

"... It was almost impossible to win the race from where we were. We would have had to have been Secretariat. I'm not discouraged. I think if we'd had a clean break we win by five, six lengths – if we'd gotten decent position, tucked in sixth or seventh and made the move we made... He came running and almost caught them. I'm still very encouraged."

[jimbo66]

While agree that the statement(s) by Porter are almost stupid, I can\'t disagree with his decision with Lezcano.

Think this guy has one of the largest standard deviations of rides.  He seems to make good ground saving decisions on the turf from time to race, but then makes downright awful decisions many times (for a top rider).  He thought it was a good idea to go 1:08 with Majestic Hussar (horse wasn\'t winning anyway, but 1:08?)  Watched him botch Winter Memories a number of times with dumb rides as well.

[Michael D.]

Jim,

Lezcano is an enigma. He seems to get tossed from every big horse he rides and finds more trouble than anybody. Yet he has one of the highest ROIs year after year. I\'m pretty sure he\'s the highest ROI guy of all the major jocks over the last 3 years.

I don\'t have a strong opinion on what the connections should do with NI, but with that pedigree, the horse has no business running longer than a mile in this kind of company. But he ran a legit 9f in the Remson, and had the perfect tune-up on Saturday to collect the 50 Derby points in the Wood. Brown and Lezcano seemed to have positioned a colt with those genes pretty well. Will be interesting to see how the stretch run looks after the next jock makes NI expend more energy earlier in the race.

As for the Risen Star, the only value I see going forward is maybe Oxbow off the pedigree and wide trip & 120 lbs. (though not a ton of value). Not a lot of interest in the FOY runners. Nothing wrong with Orb, but the perfect trip under 116 lbs makes him a little worse than his current standing, imo. Why do I think Zito and Lezcano are going to pick off all those Fla Derby runners with something that\'s 8 points too slow?

[jimbo66]

Michael,

Interesting fact on Lezcano (his ROI).  I didn\'t realize that.

I don\'t doubt that Orb\'s bandwagon is a bit larger than it should be now.  I also don\'t doubt that if we get a typical glib Gulf surface on Florida Derby day, that I will be betting with both fists against Orb, if he goes off a short price and he doesn\'t get the vicious pace he got last Saturday.

That said, he figures to get it in the Derby, as the pace is usually good.  He is well bred for the distance IMO, has a trainer that won\'t race him in the Derby unless he is going to run well, so if he makes it to the gate, he will likely be interesting (to me).

That said, a not so wise man once said \"its only February\"...........

[TGJB]

One way to think about this stuff is to think about what figure you could see on each hose\'s sheet next time to make you like him in the Derby, and what figure you would expect.

Orb made a big jump and has developed a lot from his 2yo top already, and Shug horses are running lights out right now. And if you think he\'s going back next time he\'s especially tough to like in Ky.

[TreadHead]

I\'m still dying to hear your opinion on Normandy Invasion, though I can\'t blame you for not sharing it if it is positive, as this apparently leads to the masses ganging up on you.  

Other than the exaggeration over the lost lengths, I find the owner\'s comments spot on.  Just saw the BRIS pace and speed figures for both those races and they gave he and the winner some strong closing (triple digit) pace figures, which to me says they think the track was playing slowly.  Too bad we have to wait more than a month for them to race again!  It\'s going to be a long wait.