O2X Arcana

[SoCalMan2]

Question for 02X experts.  What happens if the X of the 02X is a dead rail X?  Is it extra good?  Is it not a true 02X?  Is it possible the dead rail and the 02X cancel each other out?  Any insight would be helpful.

[TGJB]

Since the idea is to in effect to regard the X as not measningful anyway, it can\'t be a bad thing.

[dannyboy135]

JB. Help me with 02x. I have a 2 year old filly. She runs 18 17 12 14 x. Do you play her to run back to the 12??

[TGJB]

Assuming 4 weeks between all starts, they\'re all on dirt, the x isn\'t too terrible, and no distance or trainer changes, she could be a play. The point of betting that pattern is not that 0-2-x\'s automatically lead to tops. It\'s that 2 big efforts often understandably lead to an off race, and there\'s a good chance the horse will rebound. Combined with the public dramatically overstating the importance of a horse\'s last race in the odds today, the result is often an overlay.

But there are lots of nuances to this. How big the top (and/or X) are, surface (grass horses seldom X so when they do it\'s more indicative), time between races (short rest after the X may not give the horse time to load up for a good one, extra rest before it makes the X more indicative)...

[dannyboy135]

Understood. Thx