Belmont Stakes breeding

[joekay]

Any opinions on those who should have the strongest breeding for a 1 1/2?  And how about an off track?

[big18741]

On pedigree alone it has to be Optimizer but that\'d be the only reason to like that horse.

Atigun,UR and Unstoppable U(might not enter) all with wins on a wet track.Paynter ran good on one in the Derby Trial.

[Ill-bred]

I\'ll Have Another has as good a Belmont pedigree as any in here.

[aceriley63]

I heard Lauren Stitch of the DRF say that IHA is bred to run 2 miles for what that\'s worth

[miff]

Who gets that 6th quarter very difficult to predict, many very fast horses defeated by inferior slugs in the Belmont.

[drshillito]

Honestly, is any American horse bred to get 12 furlongs anymore?  No sons of Galileo, Montjeu, or High Chaparral in here.  Its probably foolish to debate whether who has the most stamina amongst sons of Flower Alley, Even The Score, Dixie Union, and Awesome Again.

[big18741]

I\'ll say it again.

Optimizer the only one loaded with 12 furlong stamina in his pedigree.

Sire English Channel a three time G1 winner going a mile and a half.
Damsire AP Indy a Belmont winner.

Problem is the horse needs to improve about five points to be in the mix for the win.More likely that he could improve some and clunk up into the bottom of a tri or super.

[Rick B.]

big18741 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Problem is [Optimizer] needs to improve about five
> points to be in the mix for the win. More likely
> that he could improve some and clunk up into the
> bottom of a tri or super.

Just for fun...how many points \"behind\" were Da Tara, Sarava, Birdstone?
 
I guess I could look it up, unless anyone already knows the answer.

[big18741]

I looked at this a couple of weeks ago:

Da Tara improved 1.75
Birdstone 3.5 pts
Sarava 3.5 pts

I\'m always looking to play something crazy in this race-might end up on Atigun.

[Rick B.]

Thanks. I\'m pretty lazy today, probably would not have looked this up.

You\'ll have to suspend your disbelief for a minute, but if I could guarantee you that Optimizer will improve the same amount Birdstone and Sarava did...at what price would Optimizer be a play for you?

Not touting Optimizer, per se...just wondering out loud and kicking tires, looking for a play. I\'m still on \"pass\".

[JR]

Another Commendable?

[JR]

Lucas got Commendable to jump up 4 1/2 points. How does 15-1 sound?

[big18741]

First here are the Belmont horses that moved up and hit the board going back to 2000.First # is their figure-second how much they improved:

2011
ROI 1.0  2.75
BSP 0.0  2.0 ran 3rd

2010
Dros 1.75 2.5

2009
SB  -1.0  2.0

2008
DAt 1.75  1.75

2007
Rag -1.5  2.5

2006
JAz paired 1.25

2005
And 2.0  3.0 ran second
Nol 5.25 3.0 ran third

2004
Bir -1.25  3.5

2003
TMW -0.5  2.25 ran second

2002
Sar  0.5  3.5
MDO  1.0  1.5 ran second

2001
PG  -2.5  3.0
APV  2.0  2.0 ran second

2000
Com  2.5  4.5

Optimizer top is only a 5.5 so if you\'re telling me he runs a 2 I don\'t think he can win the race with that figure.Being a stone closer he\'d probably have some wide on the second turn as well.He\'d have to improve more than Birdstone or Sarava.

[Lost Cause]

\"Optimizer top is only a 5.5 so if you\'re telling me he runs a 2 I don\'t think he can win the race with that figure.Being a stone closer he\'d probably have some wide on the second turn as well.He\'d have to improve more than Birdstone or Sarava.\"


He also has run every race of the series so why expect him to jump up better than Dul or UR who is faster and with better spacing?

[Rick B.]

Lost Cause Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> \"Optimizer top is only a 5.5 so if you\'re telling
> me he runs a 2 I don\'t think he can win the race
> with that figure.Being a stone closer he\'d
> probably have some wide on the second turn as
> well.He\'d have to improve more than Birdstone or
> Sarava.\"
>
>
> He also has run every race of the series so why
> expect him to jump up better than Dul or UR who is
> faster and with better spacing?

No quibble here, you guys are right: there doesn\'t seem to be a way to make a logical case for Optimizer.

I just hate getting burned by overlooking a Lukas horse, even if he doesn\'t win that much these days.