10X worse than the Lasix issue!

[Beau]

How come Betfair in the UK has in race betting and we cannot even get real time betting on post time?

What kind of software are they using? Why haven\'t our tote systems been able to figure out how to do it?

[plasticman]

Because Betfair has more money than the Racing industry and actually understands what bettors want and gives it to them. Betfair KNOWS about gambling, the racing industry does not.

[gteasy]

Correct me if I\'m wrong, but at a rebate shop, you can make money if you are close to break even...and so does the shop...bet 100K, cash for 100K, and make $5 grand...it\'s all in the churn...the shop is a track with virtually no overhead, and their take covers the rebate amount easily...the rebate may even exceed 5%, especially if you have a piece of the shop.

[Topcat]

JR Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> It does happen and it did happen in a small pool
> at Thistledown. While this example is dramatic,
> small tracks see big price swings quite a bit.
> Check out the Timonium Fairgrounds summer meet
> this August. My mother could move the prices.



. . . and Parx remains a comic book, in this regard.

[msola1]

SoCalMan,

Someone with access to the Lexis Nexis database should be able to find it with the right search terms.

Mike

[jma11473]

That\'s 50 grand, but they bet another 105 grand with 2 minutes to post (six 15K win bets and six 2K show bets) that returned $7400. They better have found a lot of offshore outlets for Thistledown because they lost 50-60K in the pools. It\'s more likely this was a robotic betting glitch where a computer somewhere screwed up because the other answers only make sense if there are bookmakers taking 10K bets on the 5th at Thistledown---and there aren\'t.

[jma11473]

So sure of what bet? The money bet at the track, other than the original 9K to win on the winner, all lost---100K in, 50K return.

[mjellish]

This is nothing new.  Happens every day.  In this case it just so happened that someone noticed.  

I remember betting Monarchos in the Florida Derby back in 2001 and he dropped from 5/2 to 8/5 when they were on the backstretch.  Pissed me off completely.  I made a huge stink about it and the answer I eventually got back was that some guy in the midwest somewhere placed a very large bet via a wagering service, all perfectly legal, about 5 seconds before the gates opened.  That was in 2001, and it was pretty educational for me.  

This game has always been about finding an edge on the crowd.  Data is part of that, but we are in the information edge and it\'s gotten tougher and tougher to maintain an edge that way.

I don\'t play like I used to, but I know a couple of people that do and much of their money goes offshore with someone who offers rebates.  Why wouldn\'t it?  If you can get 2 or 3% or more of your money back automatically in exchange for guaranteeing a monthly or anuual handle, that\'s a big edge.  You just lowered your takeout.  Since most pros more or less break even or turn a small profit on the majority of their daily bets but keep swinging at big scores and make their money that way when they hit, that rebate is more or less their monthly nut, and it makes a big difference.  

I\'ve also seen a couple of pretty cool programs that analyze pools and spit out suggested tickets.  Like it or not, that is part of deal.  Anyone who wants to go that route can choose to make the investment.  And if you don\'t want to make the investment you can\'t complain about the people who do. Should the guy in the crowd be able to bitch at you because you bought a set of sheets for the day and he didn\'t?

I remember when I lived in Chicago one of the daily track guys, a guy who wrote for the DRF, was offering up the name of a steamer for $1000.  That horse came in a week later and paid 15-1.  Don\'t know how he knew about the horse and I never asked because you don\'t ask about stuff like that.  It just happens.  Especially at tracks that are near a bunch of private training farms.  You don\'t think those guys have an edge and are going to use it?

What about the stable that knows their horse with bad form on paper or a long layoff is really coming around and acting like he is sitting on a big one all of sudden in the mornings since that nagging little whatever has seemed to go away.  When he shows up in a 10K claimer does that outfit have an edge?  Should they be required to tell all of us?  

Or what about the people that get up daily and head to the track at 5AM just so they can play horses like that.  Should they have to share that info?

If you are willing to put in the time or make the investment to get an edge, as long as you are not breaking the law I say you are entitled to keep it and good for you.

[TGJB]

Robotic bettors have no edge unless they are good handicappers, i.e. have an accurate model/line. Making a ton of bad last minute bets does you no good at all.

[TGJB]

Jma-- right. That\'s the flip side to \"robotic\" betting. If someone had that horse\'s real chances at 10-1, rather than 1/5, it would make everyone else an overlay, and the program would make huge bets. The thing is it wouldn\'t just be in the win pool-- have to see what the exactas looked like.

[TGJB]

The guy who made the bet on Monarchos (Australian who became a billionaire in software and was one of the first batch bettors here) once told a friend of mine that bet was a mistake, he tried to bet 2k and accidentally bet 20k, or something like that. Me, I\'ve always figured given the antiquated tote sytem, that this guy is a software genius, that they can hack into NASA, and the odds changed AFTER the horse made that huge move...

[miff]

\"I\'ve also seen a couple of pretty cool programs that analyze pools and spit out suggested tickets. Like it or not, that is part of deal. Anyone who wants to go that route can choose to make the investment. And if you don\'t want to make the investment you can\'t complain about the people who do\"

Mjellish,

Agree, but what you describe is an apple,I was referring to an orange. There are software programs out that are far more sophiscated than what you described.In some cases the player does not even know what the computer bet until after the race has started. No manual intervention,automated software programme has parameters (including risk amount) and is either hardwired right at the site or has remote pool access.Bets dumped as late as possible.

One outfit I know made a few hundred grand,two others busted out for.Technology to advance the game great,giving people access to live pools another story. As JB correctly points out geeks are at genius level these days hacking into almost anything.

Mike

[Boscar Obarra]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Robotic bettors have no edge unless they are good
> handicappers, i.e. have an accurate model/line.
> Making a ton of bad last minute bets does you no
> good at all.


 The edge they have is being able to place multiple bets at the end .  They can control the net return on the wager very closely , something a manual bettor cannot do, unless they are making a very simple win bet or a few exactas.

 Of course, there has to be some \'handicapping\' involved or they will lose the takeout-rebate in the long run.

[whodoctorwho]

I agree that the integrity of the pool is most important and allowing the robotic wagering a connection to live pools at the rebate shops is a negative because it allows manipulation of the pool.  If it isn't happening already, a more sophisticated P6 fix than when the Volponi won the BC classic is in the future.  That crew had the experience and knowledge to beat the secure wagering network but not enough knowledge to structure the bet so that it would look like a reasonable bet.

Any person or organization that has a connection to the live pools should be licensed and audited (including lie detector tests) periodically.

All the data collection that MJ mentions are valid examples of knowledge we daily live without at the track, but the trainers and owners have.  We all benefit from MJ's knowledge year round, especially at derby time.   But I also believe this is an apples and oranges thing.  I don't believe the integrity of the pool is affected by those examples.

Also taking money from the horsemen by reducing on track handle and thus reducing purse size is a negative. I realize that argument was lost years ago, but it is fact.

Thanks MJ!   Thanks Miff!   Thanks to everyone else for the great input on this board.

Fred D

[Beau]

According to DRF the horse was 14-1 after the $7000 and $8000 bets were made on all other horses. Then a robotic wagering program caught the inefficiency and placed $8359.00 win bet to drive the horse down from 14-1 to 5-1. All this happening 90 seconds before they left the gate. CRAZY SHEEET!!!