Another Frankel Debacle

[jbelfior]

I know there are going to be some of you who scream \"Where\'s your proof?\" I will answer your questions before you ask....I have no proof and obviously neither does anyone else.

But more than a few eyebrows were raised on Saturday after Frankel\'s charges, aside from MEDAGLIA D\'ORO who is a terrific racehorse that requires no \"assistance,\" crashed and burned. Mr. \"Mouth\" is now a whopping 2 for 57 on the days when everyone is watching closely. (Hasn\'t Phil Hauswald won as many BC races?)

Want more?? PEACE RULES suddenly tossing in the towel long before any of us are used to seeing him do that. TATES CREEK was vanned off on Saturday. The mysterious ailments of EMPIRE MAKER. SIGHTSEEK who looked like she would not have hit the board in the Juvenile Filly race. Now I don\'t want to hear about the history of Frankel horses being over the top in the BC. All of the horses mentioned above were fresh and none of them ran even close to what they were running all year long....I repeat ALL OF THEM.

Coincidence? Just a bad day for the Frankel barn? None of them took to the track?? I think not. You all know what I\'m thinking.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[sheba87]

What are you thinking?  What is the magic potion?

I always hear innuendo and I never hear answers.

Please tell me what he does all year compared to yesterday that led to those results.

[jbelfior]

Sheba87--


What does he do all year compared to the BC? He trains at a 25-30% rate of winners all year, sets the record for Grade 1\'s and is 2 for 57 (that\'s 3% if you do not have a calculator nearby) on Breeder\'s Cup day....hmmm. Magical potion??? Who knows...perhaps it\'s the same thing that turns a 5 yo allowance sprinter like SHAKE YOU DOWN into a top BC contender.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[sheba87]

How about this.

The North American Racing Calendar is packed with Grade 1 and 2 races that come up very weak.  They have short fields and many standouts because there are often 3 different races for the same group running within 7 days of each other all for good purse money.

Therefore, somebody with the resources and the ability to spot their horses really well can run up gaudy statistics winning grades races against glorified allowance fields.

Throw in the fact that the somebody in question has one of the best breeding operations in the world behind him, among other big money clients and it is not all that hard to believe.

On BC day, those fields do not exist.  You can\'t beat 3 nw of 2 lifetimes and a grade 2 also ran and win a race.  You have to beat the best of the best that day.  You don\'t get the optimum circumstances that you see all year.

Just food for thought.

I have no explanation for Frankel\'s lack of success in the BC but maybe......

Perhaps Frankel gets a lot of very talented horses, is extremely competent at developing them, holding them togther for a long season, and at spotting them really well, but has \"NO EDGE\" over other competent trainers at getting a horse to PEAK on the RIGHT DAY.

Getting horses to PEAK on the right day is a unique skill that goes beyond pure development, soundness, and race spotting.

For Example. I seem to recall that Charlie Whittingham was exceptional at that particular skill (plus lots of others) :-)

Just a thought.

[jbelfior]

Sheba87---

I respect your response and your points are well taken. I, on the other hand, have difficulty with the 2 for 57 for a guy who is lights out during the rest of the year.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

Joe B.

I haven\'t read all your posts on this issue. So forgive me if I\'m asking you to repeat your thoughts.

I take it you are suggesting he\'s doing something with his horses during the year that he can\'t/didn\'t do for the BC? :-)

If so, why would he stop doing it for that one day assuming he\'s not getting caught the rest of the time and is willing to take the risk all year?

[jbelfior]

Classhandicapper---

I\'m sure that there are times where things are more closely watched than others. I hi-lite Frankel\'s dismal showing in the BC and his 0-18 streak this year at Saratoga where the other magical trainers (e.g. Dutrow, Lake) historically struggle.

But like I mentioned earlier, of course I nor anyone else has any proof. Therefore it really does not matter what I think.

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[sheba87]

I see your point as well.

My feeling is that if he were doing something illegal, being as dominant as he is, that he would be caught.

Why would all the other trainers just sit around and let him dominate the way he does if they knew he was not being ethical?

I don\'t begin to have the answers.  it just makes me wonder.

[asfufh]

jbelfior, You may be ultimately be proven right about your accusations concerning Frankel but in the neighborhood I grew up in you went directly to the the man you had a problem with or you shut up.
If you wandered around badmouthing somebody to anyone who would listen, you would soon have someone knocking on your door and you would suffer a punch in the mouth or worse. Obviously, you were raised somewhere out in the burbs.

[Campbreeze]

That would explain the lower winning percentage for him on BC day, but not the apparently lower level of performance achieved by most of his horses.

Having said that, maybe the day only appears to be as awful as it has been made out to be.

Sightseek - clearly ran an inexplicably poor race.

Peace Rules - flew through 6 furlongs on grass, and had nothing left.  However, the 2 horses he flew with were not out of sight at the finish line, as he was.

Aldebaran - appears to have run 6/7ths of his normal race, he was picking them up at the end.  It is not redboarding to say he needs more than 6 furlongs.

Midas Eyes - did not run his race.

Heat Haze, Megahertz and Tates Creek finished 3, 4, and 6 lengths behind what is apparently a very fine racehorse.

Medaglia d\'Oro battled it out head-to-head with another very fine racehorse for over a mile and then got caught in deep stretch.

I get 2 really bad performances (Sightseek and Midas Eyes) and 1 who knows (Peace Rules).  1 very fine performance (Md\'O) and 1 who did about what should have been reasonably expected at the wrong distance (Aldebaran, which of us didn\'t throw him out), and the 3 turf mares may have run close to what they have run all year.

Let\'s take a look at the figures on his horses when they come out and compare them to the prior figures and then see what we think.

[HP]

I think Sheba87 has it exactly right. Also, a horse that can run a zero off a 60-120 day layoff against a seven horse field in California in August can\'t do it against the best fourteen horses in the world, and maybe it\'s really stupid to think (and bet like) they can. I think Frankel\'s good at spotting his horses and taking advantage of his opportunities, and this is a better explanation than any drug thing. Excellent post. HP

[jbelfior]

Again, I have no proof and I can certainly be very wrong about this. There are just too many instances for me not to wonder, question, or remark about it. This is not a sour grapes post as I did not wager on any of Frankel\'s horses. That\'s a lot of excuses CAMPBREEZE, and there are 49 others to explain. That\'s not to say your wrong, however.

ASFUFH--I grew up in Brooklyn, NY and knew Frankel when he had 5 cents in his pocket. I would be very happy to see him again and tell him what I think. By the way, \"The Sopranos\" first episode is in 3 months. Stay tuned.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[shanahan]

Anyone who saw sightseek in the paddock or walk out onto the track saw a completely different horse...tail tucked,...not the horse we saw previously - on his toes, shining, tail out, strutting...I doubt seriously it is illegal drugs - just not his day.  Wonder what happens when Mark Shuman gets Shake You Down?  Just kidding on the last part...

[Dana]

can\'t anybody just say what\'s on their minds and come out with it! so bobby juices his horses with some unknown substance that they don\'t test for any other day (on any other track) but breeder\'s cup day, so hence he\'s 2 for 57 -- give me a break.

\"campbreeze\" makes a lot of sense to me; here are a few more thoughts

on sightseek- how anyone could believe she ran neg 3\'s is beyond me -- she was no way better than any other filly & mare in that race -- they were all sub par -- elloluv is not a mile 1/8 horse, got koko ran against a tremendous speed bias, take charge lady was inexplicably not sent by the jockey -- maybe she was over the top, but sightseek\'s numbers were so fake -- beating up on small fields in ny in no way equals negative numbers -- what they always said about azeri last year applied to sightseek in a big way. she\'d be a good allowance horse in cali. neg. 3\'s -- yeah right.i almost believed that.

aldebaren- ran against a huge speed bias; he had no shot ever in that race -- a race that\'s too short for him in the first place.

midas eyes was in no way ready

heat haze, tates creek and megahertz are all mediocre horses -- they raced against inferior competition (mostly each other) all year long -- compare their races with islington\'s against the top males in europe -- please. dublino was the only decent filly from the west before she fell apart -- that division was so weak. i should say i think heat haze is a decent filly but she\'s not effective at longer distances

peace rules also ran against inferior competition when he ran on turf (his 2 year old season) and in no way did i expect him to run anyweher near those dirt numbers on grass

medalghia d\'oro ran a very good race -- if congaree wasn\'t in it he would have won for FUN!

some of you all need to get over it -- frankel\'s got 10,000 horses and owners who let him do anything he wants; he can pick and choose his spots and freshen his horses up -- plus he\'s sharp as hell knowing what his horses are capable of; but 20 other trainers would have his success if they were in his shoes; the starting line is in no way equal for him; hey, he worked long and hard to get to his place, so i don\'t begrudge him -- i just refuse to believe without proof that he\'s allowed to \"get away with something\" the rest of the year and not on bc day.