Congratulations To All The Winners?

[JR]

Nobody here by that name.

[HP]

I did alright, thanks.  HP

[JR]

With who?

I had the juvenile filly tri. and not much beyond that.  Almost lucked into the sprint tri. Didn\'t have Bluesbystandard or whatever his name was.

I\'d like to know what your plays were and why? Not doubting you. Just wondered what you hit with and why you played them.

Thanks,

Sour grapes

[HP]

Okay. I don\'t want to past post, but I\'ll tell you. I had the exacta in the juvenile.  I liked Minister Eric and I remembered the old saw about playing the longer priced \"entry\" horses when a trainer had more than one in the race. Besides, Action had a pattern that said \"new top\" although even as I made the bet I didn\'t think it would work out the way it did (or I would\'ve gone straight win).

Also, my wife picked four losers in a row and then announced she liked Pleasantly Perfect. Even though he figured with a forward move I didn\'t buy it, but given her record in the big races (War Emblem, Sarava, etc.) I immediately put my choices UNDER Pleasantly Perfect in the tri (only $1). By the way, she liked The Tin Man, who Jerry liked and I hated and I refused to make the bet and this was one of the few times I was right and she was wrong.

Not very scientific, and I really got buried on my big pick (Peace Rules) which I honestly thought was a great play, though I was shocked he was favored. My winners were small plays and my losers were much bigger, so I turned a slight profit, and given the time I put in I was disappointed.  HP

[HP]

BTW, read your other post and Peace Rules could\'ve run about a 3 and won that race. And the main thing in the Juvenile is there was no ace in there (Cuvee was one of my first tosses after the draw, and even given Halfbridled\'s performance from the outside I figured that kind of lightning wouldn\'t strike twice). I have to give credit to the Euros, who beat me with a stick on the grass. HP

[Silver Charm]

I sure picked the wrong day to Dead Heat with Frankel.

And I wasn\'t even betting him.

[JR]

Hi HP,

Thaks for the reply and congratulations on your winners.

I understand using Minister Eric (I did too) but even looking for a new top out of ATD I couldn\'t see him running better than an 8 which was still not very competitive with many others in the race.

I figured Peace Rules could possibly run between a 2 and a 3, which would only put him in the company of many others, and the likelihood of him even running that kind of number was slim. A 5 or higher seemed more likely to me.

And as for your wife\'s picks, I understand. I had the same good deal going here until she decided to take up golf.

[jbelfior]

I always look for the pair ups by the 2yos. TGJB turned most of the THORO followers on to this \"healthy pattern.\" However I thought that a pair-up of 13\'s, followed by the likely 4-6 point improvement, would not get it done in a BC race. Perhaps I should have downgraded the race, but I boxed the \"healthy patterns\" of CHAPEL ROYALE and MINISTER ERIC and keyed them both in doubles with JOHAR and HIGH CHAPPAREL.

It\'s a tough game.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[beyerguy]

ATD probably did run about an 8, the pace cooked most of the field.  I know race pace isn\'t a huge thing here, but they were smoking early.  And the goods ones were wide while smoking, a double whammy!

The juvenile pace was really hot. That was a good example of how horrible a trip it is to be wide on the first turn into a duel relative to being wide when a horse is going slow.  

If a handicapper is willing to adjust final times for paths, then he/she should be willing to adjust fractions for lost paths also.  

So if you are wide into a duel it has a much greater impact than just ground lost. You are in a killer duel just trying to keep up with horses on the inside.  

If the horse on the inside is cutting a 45.1 and you are 4 wide keeping up, you are cutting a 44.3. (more or less)

[jbelfior]

Beyerguy--

You are correct. Pace for the Juvenile colts was much faster than Juv Fillies. MINISTER ERIC saved ground and was a good 8-10 lenghts off that half mile 45.17. He had no excuse other than a colt that came up much lighter in the numbers outkicked him.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[HP]

JR,

I agreed with your \"eight\" estimate. I gave ATD credit for saving ground from inside and could see him getting in the picture with the eight (other than Cuvee, five and change was the fastest route -- so a horse running an eight and saving ground around both turns really did have some chance in the gimmicks), and it looks like that\'s where we parted the ways. I can\'t be too thrilled with this since I spent all week figuring out how to get shelled on my big bets and then hit this flyer on a whim. But that\'s how it goes....

Halfbridled\'s performance was amazing considering just how bad that post was. Others were faster going in and had patterns that offered no real excuses. I understand she went faster than the boys. Maybe the Juvenile \"curse\" won\'t affect a filly. HP