Thank You TG analysis

[jumpnthefire]

for saving me in the 12 race i normaly dont stay after the derby but i decided to place a savor bet pick 3 10-12 race thank you i broke even for the day!

[JR]

What do you get paid? How did the analysis help you in the 11th?

[jumpnthefire]

it helped me make a \"side\" bet i went with a few in the 10th all in derby and the 2 in the 12th it paid 680 for 50 cents!  ... all the other tickets i played failed all day long i might add lol

[Lost Cause]

jumpnthefire Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> for saving me in the 12 race i normaly dont stay
> after the derby but i decided to place a savor bet
> pick 3 10-12 race thank you i broke even for the
> day!


That 12th race saved my day also..

That horse was a cinch on paper at 2/1..

[shanahan]

FWIW...I could not get back to the seminar after I left town, but did grab a form and used the \"two preps without regression\" angle...form did not have IHA going backwards..one point is all.  Screwy way to win, but...

[Dana666]

I don\'t know what analysis you were looking at??? They had almost nothing. In fact the sheets offered little help on yesterday\'s card. There was one race where there was an absolute lock (Bet The Power)and he was 9-5--he should have been 4-5 based on the numbers and Groupie Doll looked very solid--just about every other race was a disaster. If you cashed anything, God Bless you. I wish someone would have told me to stay away from Pletcher! I never saw so many horses run so porly. WTF??? How can his horses run so well at one track and so badly at another? Gemologist ran for about five furlongs and packed it in. Absolutely unbelieveable. Thank God the derby only comes once a year. I bet very little by the time the actual race came up b/c Pletcher\'s horses had been doing so poorly. I hammered the late double with Bet The Power and the 1 in the last race only to be nosed out by C-Nak on the 10--that one would have brought me back. Anyway, I\'m stating to hate CD. You can have it.

By the way my buddy nailed this one too--Kerry\'s analysis of IHA:

\"Creative Cause may have been a tick above him in this race, but this was a lesson for I'll Have Another. He did not back down. He came back for more. I'm impressed. His tenacity is subtle, because he does it with presence. I look for big things from this horse, and I would not overlook him in the Derby.\"

Too bad I didn\'t put it together.

[APny]

I agree the data offered little help yesterday.  I am actually SHOCKED the analysis touted as many Pletcher horses as it did yesterday.  TGJB knows better than anyone that TAP\'s horses rarely replicate thier GP form elsewhere.  We see it year after year.  To see Turbo Compressor given out as a bet vs. Grade 1 Turf horses seemed very strange to me.

[jumpnthefire]

all i meant was  that i didnt have a chance to look at the 12th in depth i strictly used the 2 as backup bet i thought hed be one of fav it was the only pick 3 i played in the 10th, having played pick 3s in the 9th and still alive..

[cruzm73]

Folks should really begin Paying attention to Kerry Thomas - has now nailed last 2 Derbys + Breeders Cup.  Although he said there were 8 horses this year with a high herd dynamic (as opposed to 2 last year) he clearly stated 3 were a notch above the others; Union Rags, I\'ll Have Another, and Went the Day Well.  One of the \"others\" was Dullahan and while Bodemeister was slightly outside the 8 he had a very high opinion of him, stating that he is like no horse he\'s ever seen in that his comfort zone is alone instead of around other horses.

While speed figures (and TG\'s are above any others) are and always will be necessary to form an opinion in this game, the dynamic of a horse\'s personality and it\'s relation to others in a \"herd\" (or race, isn\'t that a small herd running around a track) to me is amazing - and makes perfect sense.  If we took 50 of the best thorobreds somewhere and turned them loose, eventually they\'d form a herd and start displaying the characteristics Mr Thomas seems to be keenly aware of.

I missed the boat with him last year, only put Animal Kingdom in some Pic 4\'s and tri\'s, all dead tickets.  During Breeders Cup I was deployed to a resort in the desert and a little busy, didn\'t even know he had picked Drosselmeyer until I read a posting on here a couple weeks ago.  This year he helped me to  my best Derby score ever.  Hopefully I\'ll run into him somewhere in the future and buy him a beer or 30.

[TGJB]

My question is, do those horses have the same herd dynamics in the races they lose?

[P-Dub]

Why wouldn\'t they?

[TGJB]

Exactly. So how come it matters in some races but not others?

[P-Dub]

TGJB Wrote:
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> Exactly. So how come it matters in some races but
> not others?


For the same reason TG numbers matter in some races but not others. I\'ve seen plenty of races where the horse with the fastest number or best pattern doesn\'t win.  They don\'t even fire.

One could ask the same question about your figures.  \"So how come they matter in some races but not others??\"

You wouldn\'t say that the numbers don\'t matter when this happens, and neither would I.  Nor would I say herd dynamics/emotional conformation only matter in selective races. I think they manifest themselves differently according to the other horses in the race. A few examples.

Take Hansen.  \"I haven't seen anything from Hansen that indicates an ability to manage multiple stimulus. He's the kind of horse that is super in forward motion.\"....\"His individual dynamic is very high. His group dynamic, I am a little bit shady on. I don't know how he'll react if he is in a group of traffic. I do not see him as a horse that controls space. He's not managing anything. He's just moving through it. His projection is forward, always.

For me, this sums him up in the races he\'s won and lost.

How about Take Charge Indy.

\"His patterns of motion show me his best scenario is to be on or just off the pace and then make one massive power move. I am not optimistic about how he would react if he finds himself too far back in the pack or has to make multiple moves to win a race.

Calvin Borel rode Take Charge Indy perfectly in the Florida Derby, but that was probably his best possible scenario — on the lead through moderate fractions, without too much to manage. This is a very tactical and strategic horse who will need things to break perfectly again to win the Derby.\"

Seems like a pretty good analysis of what this horse has done so far.

I\'m not going down all the horses, but his analysis was pretty good.

Its just one more piece to the puzzle, and to think that it doesn\'t matter or to just dismiss it - as our boy Cube did somewhere else, is shortsighted IMO.

[TGJB]

We don\'t identify HORSES as being a better or worse number, we say individual performances are. The point of what this guy does is to establish a HORSE as superior in some way to another. If that\'s true, there\'s no reason the horse shouldn\'t always be superior. We would have an awful lot of Triple Crown winners if that was true, just for starters.

By the way, Hansen lost when he was on the lead in Fla, won when he came from off the pace in the Gotham.

[magicnight]

I like objective data as much as the next guy, but if he keeps identifying long-odds Derby winners without it, he may start giving objective data a bad name.