Derby 138

[RICH]

I am all over the one in the one 9th at 30-1, hoping he can squeeze out one more little move.

[milwmike]

3.8 million in the pool right now and EP is 27-1

[phil23]

Yep, he\'s not going anywhere.  

And as far as the track goes, I remember last BC day, all the idiot apologists and syncophants for the track, claiming it would dry out and it was the best track to get dry quick in the land.  Well it did not.  Not even close.  At best it was \"drying out\" but still deep and close to muddy.

[alm]

So here\'s mine, horse by horse.

Daddy Long Legs: he would win here if there were 19 Little Chappys in the race.  Unfortunately for the sheiks they already had their shot at that bogus contender.  

Optimizer: next year I hear D. Wayne will wear a saddle on his own back if that\'s what it takes to get into the Derby.

Take Charge Indy: his strongest race was the loss to El Padrino...I view his Fla Derby as a regression...he got a super speed favoring track that day and beat horses who were questionable in here or who are not here.  Plus I don\'t think down inside and a 1w1w trip is the place to be at CD, where the track super announced his retirement NEXT year.  Don\'t compare this one to Super Saver unless it rains and this track is the same as that year.  At the very bottom of verticals, if he gets there at all.

Union Rags: his best are right up there, but his last was a regression.  Doesn\'t give me a lot of confidence anywhere but on the bottom of a vertical ticket.  Plus there\'s the matter of pedigree, which is weak in this field even if his physique is perfect.

Dullahan: most likely too slow on dirt.  Maybe he bumps up to a vertical ticket, but I don\'t see it and I think Kent squeezed the lemon really hard at Keeneland....three weeks ago.  Yikes.

Bodemeister: his numbers put him on the ticket, but not on the top.  I really don\'t buy the Ark Derby number...don\'t think he\'s a War Emblem.  Sorry.

Rousing Sermon: too slow.  Excellent candidate to join the ranks of hundreds who run somewhere from 10th to 20th.  Just as the TG analysis pointed out yesterday that Larry Jones had a bad Churchill record (excuse me), too many people are pointing to Jerry H\'s great Churchill record.  We all regress to the mean in life and then we die.  This one\'s dead.

Creative Cause: showed the numbers to compete until the last race.  It has been pointed out here that IAH regressed and won the SA Derby, so what does that say about this colt\'s effort in that race?  I can\'t play everyone, so this guy gets dropped off a serious regression.

Trinniberg: God, I wish he was my horse.  He would stay at home.  That\'s not saying he won\'t carry his game a lot further than many here think he will.  He just won\'t be around at the end.

Daddy Nose Best: that was a breakout effort at Sunland and it would be competitive here if he can repeat it.  I am betting that he won\'t, second time on dirt.  And Gomez is currently riding like a slug and Julien thought he had a better shot with Union Rags and so on.

Alpha: competitive on all his races.  Don\'t like Maragh here, but you toss this guy at your peril.

Prospective: too slow on all surfaces.

Went the Day Well: what can I say?  For years I\'ve watched people who won the Derby struggle to find a reason to come back the next year.  This horse provides Team Valor a good reason, but will lightning strike twice?  I don\'t think so and will leave him off.

Hansen: you have no faith guys.  I would toss him if I was sure that his last was a regression, but I\'m not.  It was by far his best poly effort, including those visually monster wins at Turfway.  I can\'t take the chance that he won\'t run back to his best on dirt, which is good enough and he gets the catbird seat...the controlling speed on the outside.

Gemologist: my future book bet.  I like him a lot.  His number\'s right there.  He drew the post I hoped for.  If he has another forward move in him, he wins this easily.  If not, so I lose.

El Padrino: maybe had one of the best races of any of these, three back.  Regressed, but not that much and held the regression level over two races.  Gotta use him in the mix.

Done Talking: too slow.

Sabercat: too slow.

I\'ll Have Another: I view the SA Derby as a small regression, but don\'t see him being fast enough to win from a disadvantageous post.  Just don\'t see it.

Liaison: I honestly don\'t know what the hell this one is doing here, other than the fact that there might have been an empty slot on the plane they used to fly in Bode and their other Churchill entries.  Pass.


Contenders: Alpha, Hansen, Gemologist.

Behind them: Union Rags, Bode, El Padrino.

Maybe on the vertical ticket only: Take Charge Indy.

[Michael D.]

9-2 is a fair price on UR. Much the best last year. Gone West/Nijinsky on bottom makes him a decent bet to get the distance. Good works, looks tighter than he did 5 weeks ago when putting up the \'2.25\'.  Flying mud an issue, but Julian\'s the right jock to work out the trip from the 4 hole. UR rates and pounces.

I liked Dull more before the track turned into speedway, but he also drew well with speed/stalkers on both sides. Has the genes to get the distance, and put in a good stretch run in the key BC Juvy. Don\'t love Kent D, but he certainly knows this race.

Been a big Bode fan since Feb, but the added pressure up front is a pretty big risk.


Key Union Rags, use Dull.

[MO]

I\'m sticking to my guns. Hansen win and place, exacta box with Gemologist.

Good luck and safe trips to all.

[aceriley63]

Gemologist to win, playing him over Take Charge Indy, Union Rags, Alpha and El Padrino

[P-Dub]

My keys are Take Charge Indy and Gemologist

[Blind Switch]

Bias, hot touts, Twinspires, clockers, workouts - be cursed! All nonsense I tell ya! We miss Chuckles!

[number5858]

The Wall Street Journal agrees with you P-DUB.

[SoCalMan2]

MO Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I\'m sticking to my guns. Hansen win and place,
> exacta box with Gemologist.
>
> Good luck and safe trips to all.


I agree with MO on Hansen.  He is my key.  I am using El Padrino, Union Rags, and Take Charge Indy as my primary contenders.....for the superfectas....some interesting longshots i am including...Optimizer, Trinniberg, and Liaison.

[MonmouthGuy]

P-Dub Wrote:
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> My keys are Take Charge Indy and Gemologist


Good luck.

[BB]

I may be kicking myself in a couple of hours Michael because I pretty much concur about Union Rags, including that the 9/2 is fair. But it\'s so easy to see him getting jammed up in the first turn or going 5W late, that I just can\'t pull the trigger on it. Instead, I\'m just scaling this back to a smallish Derby bet, using Rags, but making Sabercat my \"jump up\" key. Good luck, all!

[toppled]

Same here.  I have both to win, an exacta box & the I have each of the 2 in saver exactas on  top & bottom with Union Rags, Rousing Sermon, Daddy Long Legs & El Padrino.  For my Tris, I boxed them with Union Rags & then took a 50 cent tri box on those 2 with every horse except Creative Cause.

[Marlin]

taking the bomb El Padrino off the hidden race & odds, can\'t ignore.