What do I like about the race?

[miff]

JB,

The conversions I speak of are anything but hodge podge. You have never seen anything more sophisticated/researched than this conversion.Took two years and 2,236 conversions to just establish what zero converts to on TG/RAGS/BEYER without weight and ground.Another thousand+ conversions to translate weight and ground loss into the formula.

There are no synth to dirt conversions only pure synth conversions.For synth, adjusted Beyer to TG to RAGS. In that area, TG averaged 2 points slower 31% of the time vs Beyer/Rags at Del Mar and Santa Anita synth,the other 69% converted.

Doing the entire thing like you are is not necessary,never said that EVERY TG Cali fig does not convert or that the entire circuit is off like Finger Lakes was.


Mike

[TGJB]

You need to explain that last sentence. If doing them all is not necessary, how do you choose which ones to use to decide?

(Note-- I\'m simply ignoring the rest of that stuff, not remotely accepting either its accuracy or relevance).

[Mall]

I mostly agree with your dope HP, with the exception of Hansen. No matter what the track condition is, I'm not sure the pace scenario helps Hansen, who I'm downgrading even more based on Welsch's report today that he was "rank, aggressive, and hard to handle during just a routine gallop."

For what it's worth, perhaps nothing, one of the things I look for when the horses in the Derby are this closely matched is how each horse has dealt with adversity, the theory being that most of the runners are likely to encounter some kind of trouble at some point in what is obviously a unique race. Of the 11 I've seen run in person, the ones I think both figure from a handicapping standpoint and have demonstrated that they can handle being roughed up some are Union Rags, Dullahan, and Daddy Nose Best.

If the odds cooperate, I'm going to concentrate my action on those three in the race itself, as well as the Oaks-Derby Double and the Oaks-Woodford-Derby Pk3.

The horse that intrigues me the most for the bottom rung of the exotics is Rousing Sermon, as he reminds me of Mula Gula, another Hollendorfer shipper who ran on the Derby undercard the year FuPeg won.  While Hollendorfer's numbers shipping to KY are high, if memory serves his numbers for Derby Day ships are astronomical, and it seems the less sense the horse makes—to me at least--the more live it is.

[mandown]

Hi Mike,

I look after the database for TG and write the software, including the stuff we use to monitor the consistency between tracks and the program which generates the race shapes, one of your particular favorites I think.

Not sure how you rationalise your position in this post - \'never said that EVERY TG Cali fig does not convert\' - with your riposte to HP\'s original post - \'like whole TG numbers for Cali on the slow side vs other solid data.\'

Are you saying \'EVERY TG Cali fig\' is not the same as \'whole TG numbers for Cali?\' If you are then your command of my mother tongue is better than mine!

No matter send JB the list of horses you\'ve tracked and I\'ll run them against our database.

Cheers,

George

[gteasy]

I want to back you up here...the argument against Bodemeister and Jerry\'s insightful discussion of training patterns and Sheet history COULD have been made against Broadway\'s Alibi...can anyone find a successful Oaks Sheet even resembling Alibi\'s?...few, if any fillies have scored in this race without an effort beyond a one-turn mile...and now she comes back off a top with no history of repeating an effort on rest this short...Friday\'s conditions will be wildly different than the small field she wired at Aqueduct...plus, the barn has a history of \"squeezing the lemon dry\", peaking before championship events...Jerry ignores the \'bo\' attached to her fig as well...I expected to read a caution in regard to Pletcher and advice to chart how his horses are running earlier in the card.

Successful Oaks and Derby patterns have evolved over the years...maybe BA\'s Sheet represents a change in preparation, but this race has been dominated by late developing fillies who possess strong foundations and forward moves in two-turn
routes.