I'll Have Another - Pattern Question

[Caradoc]

Jim: I'm inclined to go in the other direction.  Here's why:

1)   Statistically, the top-off pattern generally has not produced what I consider a good effort (either a pair or a top) in the Derby.  I'll give the details to you by PM if you want them, but going back to 1997, 21 horses have come into the Derby with the same general pattern (all with both preps on traditional dirt) and their results in the Derby are not good: no tops, 3 pairs, 7 offs and 11 X's.  More generally, if you want your horse to run a P or T in the Derby, you want to see them coming in with only P's and/or T's (or some combination) in their prior two starts.

2)   IHA's specific pattern (a big new top off a layoff, generous rest and then a backward move) concerns me.  By comparison, consider the three horses with the same pattern who were able to pair in the Derby.  They are Imperialism (2004), Monarchos (2001) and Prime Timber (1999).  The pattern of each of them is different from IHA's in two important ways.  A) The new tops of those horses averaged 2 points.  Those are more incremental moves than the almost 7-point new top IHA ran in February.  B) It may seem counterintuitive, but based on the data you would rather that the new top was run sometime in March, in the midst of a campaign, rather than in February off a long layoff.  Each of the three horses who paired in the Derby off the TO pattern ran the T in the midst of a campaign (not off a long layoff), and ran it in March.  If IHA is able to run a P or a T in the Derby, he will be a pioneer.

3)   As Jerry has noted, IHA was one of many runners from the O'Neill horses that moved forward suddenly early this year.  Without getting into all of the controversies, it is certainly an open question whether that form can be maintained over a longer period, and whether it can be reproduced under Derby Day scrutiny.

4)   From another point of view, the backward move in the S.A. Derby is a bad sign, and suggests something may be wrong.  He had nine weeks of rest into that, which should have been enough for most healthy, developing 3yos to assimilate the layoff effort.  The way I look at it, he's a horse with ability who pops a huge top off a long layoff, has plenty of rest but still goes back, all of which implies to me the horse may have some problems.  Now, he worked at the end of last week but I understand that since the S.A. Derby he has been placed on the Vet's List.  Why? Not sure about the specific reason why but obviously it\'s not a good sign.

I\'m going to have to leave him out.

[covelj70]

terrific analysis and argument, thanks so much, really appreciate it.

[sixmoreouts]

According to the CHRB site, I\'ll Have Another went on the Vet\'s List on 4/20 for 10 days due to \"Vet treatment\".  I confess to not knowing what this means or what the ramifications may be.

[miff]

According to the CHRB site, I\'ll Have Another went on the Vet\'s List on 4/20 for 10 days due to \"Vet treatment\". I confess to not knowing what this means or what the ramifications may be.

Six,

Players should not have to go digging for this type of readily available info. Clueless Clowns dont get it.

IHA and Alpha have issues/treatments that you have to guess at somewhat,should never be the case.In NY, the issue of publishing the vets list with reasons was raised with NYRA and they are looking at it.This is one thing which should be fully disclosed at every race track in the country.


Mike

[Michael D.]

sixmoreouts Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> According to the CHRB site, I\'ll Have Another went
> on the Vet\'s List on 4/20 for 10 days due to \"Vet
> treatment\".  I confess to not knowing what this
> means or what the ramifications may be.


I checked the CHRB vet list by name and by date, did not see IHA. I must be looking in the wrong section. Where did you see it?

[Caradoc]

Michael: Here is an alternative source.  The link below is for the workouts at Hollywood, published by the track itself.  Click on April 19.  Note the designation next to I\'ll Have Another. If in fact he went on the CHRB list on April 20, it is odd that Hollywood already has him listed as of the day before, although there may be a reasonable explanation, such as a delay in transmitting the information.  Who knows?

http://www.betfairhollywoodpark.com/racing-workouts

[justwin]

Same analysis I saw when I was putting the numbers together for the horses that backed up in the race prior to the derby. IHA is my first toss based on the sheets. Isn\'t this a classic 0-2-x pattern.

[TGJB]

Caradoc-- See, the problem is I don\'t get to say all that in the seminar, or have to say it in 1/4 the words...

This entire string-- hell, this entire board recently-- is why this site and the people on it are in a different league from everyone else.

Miff, I would really like to know what that vet\'s list thing means.

[TreadHead]

Also interesting to note that that is the only work marked \"breezing\" on the entire day, does he normally work this way (unlike almost every other Cali horse?)

[Michael D.]

Caradoc Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Michael: Here is an alternative source.  The link
> below is for the workouts at Hollywood, published
> by the track itself.  Click on April 19.  Note the
> designation next to I\'ll Have Another. If in fact
> he went on the CHRB list on April 20, it is odd
> that Hollywood already has him listed as of the
> day before, although there may be a reasonable
> explanation, such as a delay in transmitting the
> information.  Who knows?
>
> http://www.betfairhollywoodpark.com/racing-workout
> s


Are we sure \"denotes horse on list\" means vet list?

The CHRB site vet list appears to be updated through 04/22.

[Caradoc]

Michael: Unfortunately a couple of horses I have owned were on the vet\'s list and when they worked that is how the worksheet would read.  You will note that the designation is not there in any of IHA\'s works leading up to the S. A. Derby (3/30, 3/21 and 3/12, for example).

What the CHRB can add to all this I don\'t know but someone in a position to get answers should ask, as they should ask O\'Neill.

[Michael D.]

Caradoc Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Michael: Unfortunately a couple of horses I have
> owned were on the vet\'s list and when they worked
> that is how the worksheet would read.  You will
> note that the designation is not there in any of
> IHA\'s works leading up to the S. A. Derby (3/30,
> 3/21 and 3/12, for example).
>
> What the CHRB can add to all this I don\'t know but
> someone in a position to get answers should ask.



ok, thanks for all the info.

[Rick B.]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Players should not have to go digging for this
> type of readily available info. Clueless Clowns
> dont get it.

> This is one thing which should be fully
> disclosed at every race track in the country.

It sure wouldn\'t hurt if our industry had it\'s own DAILY newspaper -- you know, with REPORTERS who were assigned to watch such things as vet lists...then maybe do some of that reporting stuff and go ask a trainer or someone why a horse went on the list...

Yes, I dare to dream.

[miff]

JB,

Basically, a request was made for more transparency at NYRA in several areas, one was the publishing of a vets list.PJ Campo, NYRA Director Of Racing,kindly replied that NYRA understood the request/concerns of players and would look at it. Unfortunately, have learned that the newly ordered commission by Gov Cuomo, lead by Jerry Bailey,Dr.Mary Scollay et al, will independently review and report it\'s findings re certain NY racing issues to Albany.

Know there is concern at NYRA that if players \"know\" the vets list, stuck horses, hustled horses etc handle may go down. Do not know if that would be the case. Also disappointing that NY Horseman\'s/owners group against letting the players know anything more than now in this regard.

Now that the politicians are involved,expect inertia.


Mike

[mjellish]

I left Doug O\'Neil a message on his cell phone.  If anyone knows or can confirm it would be him.  Never talked with him before so don\'t know what to expect.