A word of caution on pre-derby workouts

[Donut]

Jim
I do not put too much into Welsh\'s workout report.Welsh is a good man that works extremely hard and saves Me a trip to Louisville to watch the works myself mid week before the derby. He isn\'t doing rocket science..it is up to you as a handicapper to read into the work and the situation and why/how it is happening. Use it as a guide.I skimmed through your post there was a lot of info. as far as the works before the Florida derby.. The way TCI looks,acts and works out  is no where in the world like UR? UR does look like the 2nd coming when you see him in the a.m. UR has looked like the 2nd coming on the racetrack too. TCI is not in the same area code as UR but got lucky w a slow pace and a boxed in UR on FD day.TCI is a stiff looking animal when he runs as well. Welsh was totally right with assessment of their works pre FD..I saw them too. Not a good betting race but 9 out of 10 rags wins that matchup.

[Beginner]

Thanks for the info.  As always, much appreciated.

[ajkreider]

In addition to needing to outwork a workmate, fast workouts in company are not as valuable a gauge as fast solo works.  Most horses run faster with something to run at.  

And you really do have to watch the work.  For example, Union Rags latest at Keeneland was well off the rail around the turn.  Better than it looked by the clock, in other words (though it was plenty fast, with a 12+ gallop out).

[mjellish]

Plus UR had already been galloping for quite bit before he even started that work.  Would have rather seen him do that at Churchill, but it was still a nice, long, brisk work and he did not appear to be tired.