Pa. Derby

[TGJB]

At least one of you won\'t be able to grasp the implications, but here are the sheets for the Pa. Derby horses. Those of you who have made figures will recognize it as a figure maker\'s dream-- a 3 year old stake with 2 horses running small new tops, several pairing up recently run tops, others running a couple of points off their tops, 2 running worse. There isn\'t even a  reasonable alternative variant-- if you added even 2 points you would have no new tops,and only 1 horse pairing his top, which is EXTREMELY unlikely for a 10 horse 3yo stake.

[Michael D.]

TGJB,
not sure if you have already answered this question, but did you use the same variant for this race as you did for the rest of the races on the card?

[TGJB]

I didn\'t do the Pha. day (although I did review it to see what happened in that race), but the answer is yes. It\'s worth noting that there was water in the track (muddy), so it wouldn\'t by any stretch be a shock to see the variant moving around, but in fact the nine routes on the card all ended up in a fairly tight range. There were 5 routes where we used a variant that would have given the Derby a point or two FASTER, depending, two others where we used a variant within 1/4 point of the one we used, and the race in question sits between 2 routes with the track for one a point faster and the other a point slower. The number is dead on.

[Michael D.]

no reason to doubt it.. was just curious. thanks for the response.

There is one potential problem with your interpretation.

It is subjective. ROTFL

You THINK you are right. ROTFL

You are using your figures as the inputs to your analysis of the result of the PA Derby.  

Beyer used his figures as the the input to his analysis of the result of the PA Derby.

Beyer\'s figures going in suggested that Grand Hombre was not nearly as fast as your figures indicated (105). His figures also indicated that Dynever was a lot faster than your figures indicated (114). The rest of the differences were more minor.

So you interpreted the result as Grand Hombre was simply better and the result was totally logical. I understand your view  100%.  

Beyer interpreted the result as Grand Hombre won because Dynever did not like the mud. He gave Grand Hombre a slightly better figure in the PA Derby than he had earned prior (108 vs 105) and Dynever a very poor one (88 vs 114)with everyone else falling into line accordingly.

Paths and weight do not account for these extreme differences.  

That is the dilemna that handicappers that aren\'t amazingly arrogant face on occasion.

Sometimes different competent figure men have different inputs and/or interpret results differently because of methodology.

For example:

You don\'t look at pace and bias much when making figures because they are subjective. (understandable)

Beyer does to some extent. (understandable)

You include paths, but Beyer does not because of the bias issue. (understandable)

You are JUST AS SUBJECTIVE as anyone by exluding some things and including others.

That is why in the end, a handicapper must look for evidence everywhere - including in the results of these controversial races to answer these questions.

It is a MAJOR ERROR to assume you are a GOD-like creature of the figure world that is always right, never makes a mistake, and has a perfect all inclusive methodology for making figures and interpreting results.

This is why I PROPERLY often use the word \"THINK\". I am not so arrogant as to think I am always right about horses either going into a race or coming out of it no matter what the result. I am also not so thickheaded as to not examine the results for evidence that I might have been mistaken in the past.  

In my case, I have 3 sets of figures and other information that sometimes helps shed light on a controversial race. Unfortunately, sometimes it makes evaluating the race more even more difficult because I see 3 totally different opinions.

I was not 100% sure who (you or Beyer) was right about the PA Derby figures going into the Indiana Derby. I simply raised the question and issue because there was an obvious HUGE figure discrepancy . I \"THOUGHT\" (did not claim with certainty) that there was more evidence that you were overrating the PA Derby and Grand Hombre  than the other way around.

That\'s why if I did bet, I would have been trying to beat all those PA Derby horses and said so before the race. Even though I was not arrogant enough to be 100% sure I was right, I am arrogant enough to take a stand at the windows if the price is right because I am right often enough in these controversial races when you guys and/or other figure men disagree and create value n the board.

Given the performance of Great Hombre and much more importantly the performances of  Christines Outlaw and Ashmore in the Indiana Derby, and to a much lesser degree perhaps Toccet out in CA, the evidence is fairly strong that the PA Derby was not as fast as your figures indicated.

I haven\'t seen anyone\'s speed figures for the Meadowlands Cup yet, but so far it looks like the evidence indicates that Dynever is better than you have been giving him credit for also and he simply didn\'t like the mud in the PA Derby.

You like to criticize me when I use the word \"think\", but the reality is that YOU THINK and are NOT PERFECT either. I just acknowledge it and am willing to admit when the evidence suggests I was wrong or could be wrong.

TGJB,

I want you to understand that I don\'t come around here to just be a pain in the butt, critical, and disagreeable. It just seems that way. :-)

I\'m going to redboard a little because I think it is appropriate.

I said in the past that I suspected you might be underrating the performance of Dynever and Soto in the WV Derby. At a minimum, I think you will agree that the sudden burst of rain made it difficult to calculate an accurate variant for that race given that they are also 3yos that are still improving etc...    

Well, we all know that Beyer made that race really HUGE. 114

I think there is substantial evidence that Beyer overrated that race based on the subsequent performances of horses out of that race. (I\'m an equal opportunity critic)

Perhaps the reality was somewhere in between both of your different and very wide subjective conclusions about the speed of that racetrack. It was a tough situation and entirely understandable how either, both, everyone could get it slightly wrong.

In any event, I think redboarding is useful in those tough figure situations. Now, whenever I see that 114, I will cross it out and put a 107 there and when I next buy your sheets I will speed that race up a bit. I will also be very comfortable I am right even though I suspect neither of you will admit it by changing the figure. :-)

[TGJB]

Good of you to take the time to tell us which way you \"lean\" on the weight issue and what you now think (feel?) the figure for the Soto race should be, based on some of the horses running back once. Of course, when they run back again you may have to go back and change them again, as well as all their earlier figures, and then repeat the process each time they run. I\'m getting tired just thinking about it, because in order for me to get my figures right I\'m going to have to be constantly changing the figures for ALL the horses in ALL the races run in this country, which is, like, a lot.

Really, I\'m sure everyone here was holding their breath waiting for this information. There a lot of guys here who have made their own figures, are very sophisticated handicappers, and have participated in some very sophisticated (and sometimes heated) discussion of variants etc., as I\'m sure you have discovered by going through the archives. They looked at the sheets I posted for the two races in question, but I guess you\'re right, their eyes glazed over, just as yours did-- they certainly didn\'t see that the way the races fit together made it dead solid those figures were accurate NO MATTER what happened in the future (let alone in the short term). And the discussion I had with Michael about how the race fit in with the rest of the Philly day probably went whistling by their ears, just as it did yours-- so we\'ve all been sitting here waiting for your opinion, because you are certainly a credible voice in the figure making field. After all, it\'s all subjective, right? And hey! This is America, and everyone is entitled to an opinion.

You have me in a quandry. I am not going to take the time to deal with the dozens (literally) of examples of bad assumptions and bad logic in your posts. But I don\'t like censoring people except if it becomes really necessary, so I tried to give you the last word in the hope that you would go away and stop filling my board with this noise. You haven\'t, so here\'s the warning shot-- if you want to post some opinions before a race go ahead, and I can stand the occasional general opinion. But if you keep posting this subjective stuff in bulk it is coming down.

[jbelfior]

Gentlemen---

You guys have given the PA DERBY more press than it deserves. Perhaps everyone here can agree to agree that we horseplayers all have our opinions, some of which are more educated than others. Let\'s just leave it at that.

We have the Breeders Cup on the horizon and unless anyone feels that the Classic winner is coming out of the PA. Derby, let\'s put this space to better use.


Good Luck,
Joe B.