ROTW -- Sat 1/14 GP R10 -- Ft Lauderdale Stakes

[TGAB]

We\'re going to do something a little different this week concerning the race of the week. On the ROTW page are TG sheets for the Ft. Lauderdale Stakes at 1-1/16 miles on the turf, race 10, tomorrow at GP, without comments.  

We encourage commentary from one and all.

[MonmouthGuy]

Crap. I just bought the race and posted my thoughts! Will repost here.

The two horses that will take the most money are very vulnerable. Mott\'s Group 1 Juddmonte Euro-shipper is one of the slowest horses in the race and he may go off odds on, and Flat Out is trying turf for the first time as are several others.

I am going to key Pletcher\'s imporving 4YO Silver Medallion at 4-1 ML. He has a great forward moving line and could be a big factor in the turf mile division this year. Fast enough that he should clear those inside into a nice stalking position.

I will also use multiple G1 winner Teak\'s North (potential overlay, ML 8-1) who was as consistent as they get until his Breeders Cup Turf effort, and Mambo Meister(10-1), thinking that he runs back to the 0 in his last turf effort at CRC. Yummy With Butter (12-1) is a potential use underneath as a bomb if the he gets firm ground. His last two provide excuses-- and his prep was a dirt sprint at Tampa. Trainer does well 2nd off a layoff and sprint to route, and the combo with Paco Lopez has yielded tops or pairs in 7 out of 8 mounts.

[Halo Fire]

No elaborate analysis here. I really like Hollinger.

[toppled]

I don\'t know if he\'s good enough to win this, but my key will be Santiva.  Santiva is 20-1 ML and will be an overlay for 2 reasons-
1)He is trained by former Kenneally assistant Brendan Walsh who only has a few horses & is an unknown as a trainer on his own. A trainer with an 0/1 lifetime mark will draw a lot of sceptics in the crowd.  He has a solid background learning his craft both in Europe & the USA. I expect Walsh will be much better known after Saturday as I expect his first time starter in the 3rd race to be a major player in that race.
2)Santiva\'s 2 turf races don\'t show enough, but both are a lot better than they look.  His turf debut on 8/21/10 at Saratoga is an underrated race, as both 1-2 finishers, Santiva ran 2nd, came right back to run 1-2 in a GR1 stake on poly.  That race turned out to be a key race that produced multiple next out winners.  His only other turf race was his 2nd to even money Unbridled Ocean off a 6 month layoff.  
As a 3yo, Santiva ran a 1.5 on dirt, before suffering setbacks which destroyed his 3yo campaign as he was put in over his head in the Derby & Belmont. I see no reason he doesn\'t return to that 1.5 on turf today & at 117 pounds, he\'s a major player if he does.  
I\'ll be boxing Santiva in exactas with Mutual Trust, a GR1 winner in France where I\'ve seen numerous horses come to the USA, add lasix & vastly improve their TG numbers here; Mambo Meister, who ran similar numbers on both dirt & turf as a 2yo before running mostly on dirt as an older horse; and Teaks North, who has a GR1 win at Gulfstream last winter.

[TreadHead]

Throwing out FlatOut completely on pedigree, there is nothing on top or bottom that suggests he will handle the turf as well as he does dirt.

Motts shipper is the wildcard, looks to have plenty of talent and has a solid 2 month work tab not even the hint of a gap, which are the horses Mott runs well with off the bench, as others have previously noted.

Pretty much impossible to tell who will get the lead in this race.  The GP turf has been somewhat friendly to front runners, and if Guys Reward and/or YumButter are sent, they seem to have the number power to suggest they could still be there at the end.

I would look for Teaks North and Silver Medallion to come late and just miss.

Win bet on Mutual Trust at 7-2 or better.  Key over/under in exotics with the others mentioned.

[spa]

This race can\'t be handicapped.....How can Mott get his horse fit with a series of 4fl gallops? The winner is Hoofit,but I\'ll bet Flat Out.

[vired]

Wow- When I decided to try this I thought how different from living room downs when you blow a race (which I do often) ,nobody knows. Now I know how Jerry and Allan feel if they are not right. But WTF so here goes:

1) Uptowncharlybrown 15-1 (117) : No turf so far but ran a competitive # on poly @ Kee last year. Seems to have gotton better @ 4 years old and sire wins @ 13% (see sire profile bottom left). Also has the rail and getting 4-6 lbs from others. Usable.

2) Santiva 20-1 (117): Ran one big one on dirt early last year and not much since. Toss.

3) Guys Reward 12-1 (117): Top @ 3 on yeilding turf and top @ 4 on good turf both @ CD. After top @ 4 small reaction then had trouble getting back to the races. Usable on third line of tri.

4) Yummy With Butter 10-1 (121): May be a MTH specialist but #\'s there are competitive. Bounced on a bad track @ Bel then shipped for a prep at Tampa. Gets a jock that has won with him twice. Usable.

5) Mutual Trust 3-1 (123): Mott trainee ships in from France as the ML fav and co-highweight. Lot\'s of respect for Mott and first time lasix but has never run a good # so he\'ll just have to beat me

6)Mambo Meister 12-1 (117):Not much turf experience the last two years but the 4 1/4 was off a layoff and he does have a very good # CAL last April. The only bad races this horse has run are SAR ships. The one last year easily explainable off the big neg 4. MM gets 4-6 lbs from the favorites (worth approx 1 point on TG) gets a decent post and he\'s my key.

7) Teak\'s North 8-11 (123): Has run the fastest TG turf # in the field. Ran up the track on good turf in the BC while rank. Bad jock switch but usable.

Flat Out 6-1 (119): No turf and sire wins @ 5%. Maybe prepping for later and at the price toss.

9)Hollinger 8-1 (117): Improving now turned 5 yr old could get a piece of this. Good jock and trainer. Usable underneath.

10) Silver Medallion 4-1 (117): Everyone knows TAP is a genius and sure enough this horse ran a very good # to win. Problem is it\'s a 3 point new top so I expect a bounce. How much who knows. Also ground loss and weight don\'t help. Usable 3rd line tri.

11)Hoofit 15-1 (117): Motion is well respected and rightfully so but this horse with groung loss potential is a toss.

12) Kindergarden Kid 12-1 (121) Just ran new top at AQ in Nov. Respect Tagg and Leparoux but with weight and ground loss--toss

THE PLAY: EXBX: 167      EX KEY: 6 with 147    TRI: 6 with147 with 13479,10   TRI: 147 with 6 with 13479,10. Win bet on 6 @ 10-1 or bettor.

Well there it is. Don\'t bet too much. Remember another race comes up shortly. Good luck to all and all the TG qualifiers for the NHC.

[Rick B.]

spa Wrote:
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> This race can\'t be handicapped.....How can Mott
> get his horse fit with a series of 4fl gallops?

Spa -- tell me that you don\'t REALLY believe that EVERY workout a trainer gives a horse gets recorded...especially in a state with farms and training tracks up the wazoo?

[TGAB]

Quickly--

Uptown 15-1--In top form, goes 1st turf which against established stakes-placed runners is always a tough assignment. But ran a fast figure on poly which often transfers to turf, shows a bullet 6F on turf, appears acclimated, gets the rail and is in light. We\'re asking him to do something he hasn\'t done but there are signs he could do it and the price is there.

Santiva 20-1--By Giant\'s Causeway this guy is probably bred better for turf than dirt but GC progeny run fast on anything. Ran a big one on dirt early last year and it knocked him out period. Yes, the return race on grass is nice but not competitive and the question is whether he\'ll ever get back to near where he was last winter and it\'s tougher to run that level of figures on turf. However he is inside and Toppled above sheds light on the trainer who I was wondering about so if the colt is right he should improve off last at a price.

Guys Reward 12-1--is 2nd off the layoff, healthy (lot of runs) but just on the periphery of contention with his best which he could run again today. Has had lots of chances.          

Yummy With Butter 10-1--Fastest so far on turf but totes 121 evening him out w/Guy inside. Trainer has some strengths in this spot (s to r, 2nd off lay), and the horse is speedy enough not to lose much ground. Note ground loss between Yum and Guy--probably negates the weight. An 8yo?

Mutual Trust 3-1--1st time US, a GI winner in France against 3yos, he\'s one of the top weights at 123 (117, 119, 121 is the spread) and goes for a layoff HOF trainer so certainly this guy could run a new top (1st time 4yos often do). But asking this guy to run his best race ever just to contend at a short price is not a path to riches. Have to let this guy beat you and he may.        

Mambo Meister 12-1--Is very fast on dirt and not nearly as fast on turf (6 points difference). But his best on turf does contend here so the question whether he\'ll run it or whether those last few dirt runs have weakened his form and he is a  7yo. Almost always loses ground and probably will do so here again, but he gets in light. Tough to see this guy winning but he probably will be coming late and could get a piece.

Teaks North 8-1--Is the other high weight and shows 3 works from the 12/17 on. Is he acclimated? Is the distance too short? Has only bounced three times (and one was off a layoff) in his life--nice line. But outside, high weight, short distance, he may need one. His top at the weights make him no faster than several others in here. Is 8-1 enough? Probably not, underlay?    

Flat Out 6-1--Goes 1st turf and sports two good workouts at GP but only two? He\'s another with acclimation questions. But also more importantly he has surface questions as well. His sire\'s surface TGI points pronouncedly to dirt and Flat Out has run (and well) to his pedigree. Looking at Mambo Meister (who is actually by a turf sire), a 6 point differential seems rationale to project and that would put him on the periphery with others who are more experienced and longer on the board. Not for me.    

Hollinger 8-1--Shows a decent pattern but is outside and is slow. Has to run a new top to contend and a 1 point jump is probably not enough, especially at single-digit odds.  

Silver Medallion 4-1--Sports a good pattern with only one bounce lifetime but he comes in here on the heels of a 3 point jump from an outside post. Some ground loss is likely and he\'s also 2nd high weight. As MonmouthGuy said above, this colt has license to be a star but I\'m afraid we missed the wedding and could be in the front row at the funeral. This guy has developed at a lot in a short period and the conditions are net negative. He\'s getting to a point where if horses don\'t bounce they nevertheless hit a wall for a period of time--this colt did it early last year. The time to get him was last time off the slight new top (1-1/2 points, not 3, or 4-1/2 total in last two--we\'ve talked about this in past ROTWs a lot.)

Hoofit 15-1--Speedy and likely pacesetter but he\'s mostly a sprinter, a bit slow, and usually predominantly sprint-oriented runners get gobbled up in 2 turn races. Would be a surprise, is tough to bet but trainer Motion is capable. Another we have to let beat us.        

Kindergarden Kid 12-1--Appears acclimated (6 Fla works since 12/12)and made a 0-1/2 point breakthrough in last. Historically he has reacted to tops and while he could break through he more than likely will react again. Post does him a disservice.

The favorite(s) seems vulnerable. Of course we usually say that and two out of three times on average we\'re right. Try this--project what the horse will run, the best, and assign a probability--say Uptown above a 2 with a 30% probability to run it. And if he runs it what chance does that give him to win--inside, in light--say 25%.  That rounds to about 12-1. (.3 x.25 = .075. 1-.075 = .925. .925 / .075 = 12.3 to 1. So he\'s a bit of an overlay.

Good luck.

[Themig]

I will keep my thought on this race simple. I Like kindergarden Kid\'s line. Yes he is outside but in that last race he moved forward enough, and I think BT has him right. Add his really  nice work on Jan 5th, Julien, and good odds and I will take my chance with the post and have him running at the end of this heat. Im not too concerned about his trip leaving the gate. Good Luck to everyone.

[Michael D.]

I\'m going with Yummy With Butter (12-1 ml). didn\'t want 9f over yielding, and the \'7\' going 6f off the bench wasn\'t all that bad. stringing two excuses together for an 8 yr old is a risky move, as you know the end of the line is right around the corner, but we\'ll get some odds for the risk. liked the hard Mth turf, and obviously runs well with Paco up. should be in the top tier early saving ground, and runs just fine down inside. Paco has a \'1.7\' path #, and a huge $2.24 turf ROI; this guy has the trip edge.

Yummy\'s \'2.5\' should be competitive in this spot. does the 8 yr old gelding have one more of those in the tank, away from Mth?

Key Yummy, use Mutual Trust with 1st lasix.

[Silver Charm]

Lotsa different opinions here which makes it a good race to ask for input. Also shows the diversty of thought among the Handicapers here and reminds me of The Malibu recently where it seemed everyone picked someone different.

I actually think Teaks North is being underrated here. YES the poor race in his last is a BIG concern. Was off a bit of a layoff and really never ran at all. However in his prior history he has TWO Grade One wins. One at this Track and other than the 12 nobody else in here boasts a win at GP.

Beat some really good horses last year....better than these and in his losses faced tougher. Worked his way down to competitive numbers and is 8-1. Not 3-1 like the Plecther horse will be. Who I expect to Pair from the 10 Post.

Sire gets better with age. See TGI data and no reason to think he will not be competitive again this year if he isnt unhealthy and if he is then why is the Trainer entering him today and not later. Will not pass on a Dual Grade One winner with one at the Track for other unproven commodities should he be 8-1.

[Topcat]

Michael D. Wrote:
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> I\'m going with Yummy With Butter (12-1 ml). didn\'t
> want 9f over yielding, and the \'7\' going 6f off
> the bench wasn\'t all that bad. stringing two
> excuses together for an 8 yr old is a risky move,
> as you know the end of the line is right around
> the corner, but we\'ll get some odds for the risk.
> liked the hard Mth turf, and obviously runs well
> with Paco up. should be in the top tier early
> saving ground, and runs well down inside. Paco has
> a \'1.7\' path #, and a huge $2.24 turf ROI; this
> guy has the trip edge.
>
> Yummy\'s \'2.5\' should be competitive in this spot.
> does the 8 yr old gelding have one more of those
> in the tank, away from Mth?
>
> Key Yummy, use Mutual Trust with 1st lasix.


He did love to hear his feet rattle on the Shore rockbed.

[Beau]

#5 Mutual Trust... European horse racing 1st time United States and getting 1st time Lasix. This group has a lot of question marks. Mott should have this horse ready to roll.

Win bet at 3-1 or better!

Good luck!

[mkram]

Hollinger has a nice pattern and may be sitting on a new top.  Has a race in Florida, gets Johnny V. and Attfield has been hitting of late.

Guys Reward has a back number to get back to.  2nd off the layoff with the 1st off the layoff in Florida.  1 1/16 rather than 1 1/2 and 1 3/16 probably more to his liking.

Alot of horses figure here.  Many horses with back numbers to run to (Yummy, Mambo, Teaks, Silver); hoping post/ground loss, weight,pattern,and/or age does them in.  Tough calls.  Mutual a tough call as well.

Will take a shot with Hollinger and Guys Reward.  Savers with Yummy, Mambo, and Mutual.

Good luck to all.