From the guy who gave you the 2008 exacta cold...

[phil23]

Newt was 6:1 in SC two days ago, now down to 3.5, latest polls showing super tight race with Mitt, Paul distant 3rd.  Think it\'s the right time to lay Newt though as he no longer will go balls to the wall on the Bain stuff.  Paul can\'t win in SC (at least that is hard to imagine) but at 25:1 he\'s probably value of what\'s left.

[phil23]

completely concur Topcat.  Have always felt that way about Huntsman.  Although Rubio will be a very very tough out for him to get by. And what about on the Dem side?  Any ideas there at all?  Hardly an obvious front runner with Biden being old.

[TGJB]

Hillary or Cuomo.

[sighthound]

Palin is just trying to make noise and get her name on the blogs again.

The conservatives are meeting in Texas this week.  They have a choice of rallying around Perry, Santorum or Gingrich.   I\'ll guess Perry, as they can continue owning him.  Gingrich has his rich billionaire to keep him in the race and destroy the establishment pick, Mittens.  Evangelicals will not vote Romney, period.

Gingrich wants to get to Florida, where those that know him form the 1990\'s will vote for him.   Believe it or not, he may end up being the one that holds the GOP convention hostage against a third-party candidacy threat.

Santorum is trying to be Mittens \"conservative values\" VP.  I think the friendliness with Gingrich is due to fear of Gingrich destroying him.  That\'s all on Gingrich\'s side.

Ron Paul may or may not go third party - he\'s running to make Rand more acceptable in the future.

[sighthound]

Gingrich released the 28 minute trash movie yesterday on the internet, and is playing 2 minute ads in Carolina about it, with the web address.   He\'s making the verbal noises of obedience, but frankly he can\'t stand the party that sanctioned him and kicked him out and ended his House career, and I really don\'t think he cares what Rush says.  he\'s trying to have it both ways:  talk nice, let the SuperPac destroy.

Just a note:  Rush is owned by Clear Channel, which is owned by Bain Capital.

[phil23]

If the far right would smarten up and pick a guy, they could yet make a dent.  Perry certainly looked like a shoe-in 5 months ago.  At one point he was almost odds on for the nomination.  But then he opened his mouth...

Plus the Texas redistricting court case is just killing him with the move back of the Texas primary from Super Tuesday (sooner better for him to capture momentum from all those delegates, 2nd most, in TX) to April and now rumours of an even later move or split primary.  

Interestingly, for a guy polling a miserably low as he is, his odds just will not budge beyond 100:1 for the nom.  Given his numbers, he ought to be more like 200 or 300:1, at least.

[Topcat]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Hillary or Cuomo.


HRC will be too old.   Cuomo\'s been maneuvering for that spot for 6+ years, but memories of the old, snotty, superior, arrogant (sound familiar?) Cuomo are strong among the insiders and wise guys.   It\'ll be a question of electibility.

[Topcat]

They can\'t go to Perry and be regarded as sane.   He\'s strictly a rgional flavor who\'s simply not all that swift, can\'t think on his feet a little bit, and has been wholly exposed as the ultimate \"for-sale\" politician.

[sekrah]

Agree Gingrich is an overlay.  If he wins SC, I think he\'s even money to win it.  I would put him in the category of being able to beat Obama in November.   I don\'t think Romney can.  Drawing a stark contrast with an incumbent is vital, I don\'t think Romney can do that.  However, I\'m seeing reports that gasoline is looking to spike again this spring/summer ($4+/gallon).  That will be used as a very effective weapon against Obama and his energy policy.

Disagree on Huntsman.  His positions aren\'t a problem (pretty much in line with Romney), but he\'s got the personality of a rock.   He moved all-in on NH and came up short.  Don\'t think he has the money to go toe for toe for the middle ground.  I think he would have caught some mo by now if he was going anywhere.

It\'s Romney or Gingrich, and South Carolina will probably be the death blow to the field if Romney takes it.


Note:  I did get McCain at +400 at Matchbook after Iowa

[Topcat]

sekrah Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Agree Gingrich is an overlay.  If he wins SC, I
> think he\'s even money to win it.  I would put him
> in the category of being able to beat Obama in
> November.   I don\'t think Romney can.  Drawing a
> stark contrast with an incumbent is vital, I don\'t
> think Romney can do that.  However, I\'m seeing
> reports that gasoline is looking to spike again
> this spring/summer ($4+/gallon).  That will be
> used as a very effective weapon against Obama and
> his energy policy.
>
> Disagree on Huntsman.  His positions aren\'t a
> problem (pretty much in line with Romney), but
> he\'s got the personality of a rock.   He moved
> all-in on NH and came up short.  Don\'t think he
> has the money to go toe for toe for the middle
> ground.  I think he would have caught some mo by
> now if he was going anywhere.
>
> It\'s Romney or Gingrich, and South Carolina will
> probably be the death blow to the field if Romney
> takes it.
>
>
> Note:  I did get McCain at +400 at Matchbook after
> Iowa


Like Iowa was Santorum\'s dream GOP audience, South Carolina is Newt\'s.   If it was only Mitt and Newt in the field in SC, Newt would keelhaul him.   But it\'s not, for which Romney thanks his God each and every day.   Newt can nip at Mitt\'s heels so long as Mr. Sands Convention Center\'s money holds out (i. e., as long as he\'s willing), but given this field, the banker suits want Mitt, and Mitt is what they\'re likely to get.   Newt\'s got \'way too much baggage, as limited an attention span as Palin, and is all to inclined to make outrageous comments off the cuff.   GOP suits shudder at such personality types.

[sighthound]

Santorum just got lucky - today the 150 Evangelicals meeting in Texas voted to back Santorum against Mittens,  not Perry!   I\'m shocked - thought it would be the other way around.

[TGJB]

Yeah-- but a) unless Perry drops out before the SC primary it will have a limited effect, and b) Santorum still need infrastructure, and a LOT of money to compete in Florida. Given they could have gone for Perry or Gingrich, this could even be a plus for Romney.

[BB]

\"150 Evangelicals meeting in Texas voted to back Santorum against Mittens, not Perry!\"

Sight, is it possible they are more open to Sanitorium now that they know how he really feels about \"blah\" people?

[TGJB]

Believe it or not, I don\'t think he said what people think he did. Try saying \"lives\", and in the middle of it change it to \"people\'s lives\", and see what it sounds like.

[BB]

Maybe that\'s not what he was saying, but it\'s questionable (\"apologizing for America\"; \"if we talk about the economy, we lose!\"; and \"I like firing people\") as to whether that\'s a crucial factor this year.