ROTW---INDIANA DERBY

[jbelfior]

TGJB---


GREAT CHOICE FOR ROTW. I already had my strategy outlined , but this now reinforces it. I think this race was decided when EXCESSIVEPLEASURE and CHRISTINE\'s OUTLAW drew the inside.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

Anyone consider the possibility that one of the contributing factors to Grand Hombre\'s victory in the PA Derby was the off track?
 
Dynever obviously ran a sub par effort that day. He finished well behind some very mediocre horses that he figured to beat easily. There\'s no way that was \"his race\".

Toccet also ran poorly. He finished behind a horse he had just beaten and basically ran his worst race in quite awhile.

I guess we\'ll know more soon because Dynever will be facing Volonpi and a few other horses that occasionally fire big shots. If he runs very competitively (or wins) in that spot we know for certain he didn\'t fire in the PA Derby.

Toccet also comes back tomorrow in a Grade II for olders. Same goes for him.

Main reason I bring this up is that maybe Grand Hombre was a little underrated in the PA Derby, but he may be overrated now as a result of beating 2 \"name\" horses....that didn\'t fire in the mud that day.    

He might be an overrated short priced horse that has also drawn outside and could get a tough trip.

[TGJB]

Dynever ran a top at Pha-- he had almost no shot at the weights, and there is absolutely no question about the figure-- the race came together perfectly from a figure making point of view, as you can see in part by the ones who are running at Hoosier. Toccet would have had to run about 4 points better than he ever did to have a shot, but he did not. It was a great betting race BECAUSE those two were such underlays-- which has nothing to do with how they will fit going forward in other races, or how they will run.
Take a look at the three horses in ROTW that come out of that race, and look at Dynever and Toccet\'s sheets in the Red Board Room after they run tonight and tomorrow, and you\'ll see what I mean. And you might become convinced that is good information to have BEFORE the race.

[bdhsheets]

Anyone consider the possibility that one of the contributing factors to Grand Hombre\'s victory in the PA Derby was the off track?
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No. Grand Hombre was 2 pts faster than everyone else and was being spotted 5#\'s from Toccet, 8#\'s from Dynever
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Dynever obviously ran a sub par effort that day. He finished well behind some very mediocre horses that he figured to beat easily. There\'s no way that was \"his race\".

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More silliness. Did it ever occur to you that these two were highly overrated and indeed not that fast? Only Valley Man and Max Forever were slower in the race (without weight adjustments!)

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Toccet also ran poorly. He finished behind a horse he had just beaten and basically ran his worst race in quite awhile.

Sorry Charlie but Ashmore earned a better figure in that race and hit his top of 1.25

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I guess we\'ll know more soon because Dynever will be facing Volonpi and a few other horses that occasionally fire big shots. If he runs very competitively (or wins) in that spot we know for certain he didn\'t fire in the PA Derby.

Obviously you don\'t use T-graph figs at all and make up stuff as you go along. You buy the hype of whatever horse without knowing they can back up the b.s.

Volponi may lose, but it may be he\'s finished running all those -2\'s this season.

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Toccet also comes back tomorrow in a Grade II for olders. Same goes for him.

A very, very weak Goodwood field, no BC Classic winner in this bunch.

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Main reason I bring this up is that maybe Grand Hombre was a little underrated in the PA Derby, but he may be overrated now as a result of beating 2 \"name\" horses....that didn\'t fire in the mud that day.

He might be an overrated short priced horse that has also drawn outside and could get a tough trip.

Again, with the issue of weights and trips, G.H. is vulnerable. He\'s spotting some fast horses 7-9#\'s toss in a wide trip and voila an upset. Again having nothing to do with being over-hyped.

Good luck.

I agree that Toccet had never run a good enough race to win going in the PA Derby. I  though he was an underlay there also. However, based on his early year form, he was certainly eligible to improve enough 2nd off a layoff to be a strong contender there. IMO there is credible vidence he ran worse despite YOUR figure.

I believe he is STILL eligible to improve. I wouldn\'t take him tomorrow against graded older horses, but again, the improvement that one could have expected in PA Derby actually may have happened. It may have simply been masked by the sloppy sealed track and will be revealed tomorrow instead. We will see. If he does not improve a lot then he will get beaten badly again.

With all due respect, your figure for the West Virginia Derby is wrong. Dynever and Soto ran very well that day. I tried to say that politely in the analysis of the performance of Soto vs Ten Most Wanted. (the gap was not as huge as you thought - from both perspectives) Dynever was horrible in the PA Derby relative to his performance in the West Virginia Derby.

I think that was further clarified last night. Without even seeing the speed figure for the Med race, I can can tell you for certain he ran a terrific race there. He finished quite well despite racing from behind a slow pace against \"decent\" older horses.

>Obviously you don\'t use T-graph figs at all and make up stuff as you go along.<

Well, it\'s hard to discuss these matters with someone with this attitude. I don\'t make anything up. I use several sources of speed figures and other subjective methods for evaluating performances.

Over the years I learned 2 lessons.

1. Every speed figure maker makes mistakes because of the complexities of the task. So I never assume that the set I view with a religious devotion is always right - even when the result matches the figures.  

2. Even when I have the correct speed figures, they do not always reflect matters of pace and other intangible qualities of ability.

Rather than debate the various sets of figures and which races are underrated and which are overrated, I will sum up my view this way.

1. Dynever and Grand Hombre are much closer in ability than believed here. Dynever may actually be the better horse.  

2. If I believe that about Dynever, then I believe that about Soto too.

3. Dynever ran poorly in the PA Derby relative to the W. V. Derby.

4. Toccet has been below all all of them, but is/was eligible to improve enough to be on their level based on his 2yo form and first race back. He obviously did not do that in the PA Derby, but IMHO, it is not 100% certain whether that was due to the sloppy track or simply NOT making any progress. We will learn more tomorrow where he will have to improve a lot to contend.

5. Grand Hombre may now actually be overrated and vulnerable today at a short price. Though, IMO, that field is not too good - so he may win anyway. If I were going to bet, I\'d be looking to beat him.

[TGJB]

I love this \"believe\" stuff. When you are ready to back it up-- when you are ready to reveal the data behind the W. Va. figure being wrong, when you are factoring in ground loss, weight, wind etc. (and rain right before the race in that case), when you can give detailed reasoning that doesn\'t have to do with horses winning or finishing well in OTHER races (with all the assumptions that entails) but is about the nuts and bolts of figure making, let me know. If it\'s not that it is about only belief and faith, like class handicapping, choosing a religion, or thinking a hot early pace causes closers to actually run faster (you eloquently stated your BELIEF, and offered no evidence to back it up-- I could just as easily contrive a scenario where it caused the other closers in the Travers to get discouraged and not fire).

Well, I say \"believe\" because I am not arrogant enough to assume that every piece of information I look at is 100% accurate - including those I calculate myself. In fact, it is quite clear to me that equally competent and quite good figure makers often disagree on individual races. I see it every day.  

If you insist on actual data, just look at the Beyer figures for the W.V. Derby - in and out. It is quite clear at this point that the performances by Soto and Dynever that day were quite good - better than you gave them credit for.  

In fact, that 114 Beyer was quite consistent with the figures of the horses that finished behind the Dynever and Soto based on what they had run coming into the race.  

I saw the rain too. No doubt that threw a monkey wrench into the figure making process for the WV Derby for EVERYONE - INCLUDING YOU.

Now I understand that paths etc.. are a big part of your figures, but they do not account for subsequent results.

We just need to examine how they came out of it. Soto figured 10 lengths slower than Ten Most Wanted based on your figures, but figured real close on Beyers - with Ten Most Wanted having earned his figures against tougher competition. They finshed close in what in my view was a very logical outcome.

Dynever got buried by 12 lengths against a Grade 3 field in the mud. Some of the horses that finished ahead of him would be 100-1 against Ten Most Wanted. You insist that it\'s his lifetime top and the mud had nothing to do with it.

Then he comes back and runs a huge race against decent older horses from well behind a slow pace last night.

I am saying maybe, just maybe, you underestimated the WV Derby despite your theories on rain etc...

Perhaps the WV Derby WAS HUGE and the mud was a factor in the dismal performance by Dynever in PA Derby.

It makes a hell of lot more sense that Dynever, Soto, and Ten Most Wanted are reasonably close based on virtually every result since then. Those results were also consistent with what other figure makers thought of the WV Derby.

Please don\'t take it personal. I could show you dozens of figures that IMO Beyer and others got wrong and you got right.

There is an old saying. To a man with a hammer, everything looks like a nail. I think you are holding a hammer on this one.

[TGJB]

Read my post carefully, and see if you can understand it better. More to follow when I have the time and inclination.

[TGJB]

For starters, quoting someone else\'s figures is not underlying \"data\", especially when they don\'t take into account weight and ground, as I said-- Soto was carrying 15 pounds less than TMW, which is 3 TG points, 10 Beyer points. The Beyer figures (and those like them) are very good for the money, which is to say free for 5 tracks when you buy pp\'s, but they can only be used to get a general idea of how fast a race is.

We\'re going to attach sheets for the W. Va. race, and if you look in the RBR you will see how Dynever fit with the Meadowlands field, especially with Volponi not firing.

 Again, feel free to give opinions before the fact. Retro-fitting selected examples and tying them to BELIEFS loaded with assumptions (like Dynaver running badly at Pha based on where he finished and your BELIEFS about other horses, like the idea that we would think TMW would repeat the Travers # next time out) is meaningless.

I think \"your figures\" modestly underestimated the performance of Dynever and Soto in the WV Derby.

I think \"your figures\" modestly overestimated the performance of Ten Most Wanted in the Travers.

I think \"your figures\" overestimated the performance of Grand Hombre in PA Derby. I think the reality is that some of the horses that finished behind him did not fire on the wet track.  

I think Dynever was one of them. He ran poorly in the PA Derby relative to the WV Derby.

My opinions on these specific races are more closely alligned with the Beyer figures in these particular circumstances, but I think the Beyer figures are also often \"suspect\" in terms of actually capturing a horse\'s performance.

The Beyer Figures also do not take into account the impact that pace can have on the outcome and speed figures of individual participants. Personally, both in his case and yours, I have no problem with that because there is no scientific formula for determining exactly what the impact was in any individual case. It is very close to impossible to make really accurate pace figures to begin with.

HOWEVER, it is beyond silly to deny that the pace impacts both the results and times of individual horses. Just because it can\'t be measured with perfection as you attempt to do with your speed figures, does not mean you should ignore when it is fairly clear.

Last night\'s MED CUP was a slow pace. Anyone with a reasonable amount of racetrack experience that watched that race could see they were crawling early. Dynever clearly ran well to overcome that when he ran hard and wide into the quickening pace later. Volponi did not. There is close to a zero percent probability that he race as well in the PA Derby as he did both last night and in the WV Derby.    

As far as I am concerned it is beyond silly to think that some of the horses that buried Dynever in PA would have won last night - perhaps by daylight.  

Also, many individuals PREFER that the paths not be included in the speed figures because they believe that racetracks are not uniform. That is, a horse that is racing 3-4 wide might have an advantage over a horse running on the rail on some days. On other days, racing 3-4 might be a death sentence that goes well beyond the lost ground.

This is another thing that cannot be measured scientifically. It is highly subjective. However, it is beyond silly to deny that biases of various types exist on occasion.

I believe you are looking for a magical formula. I can\'t debate with you because I do not believe what you require of me exists in the real world...though it would be nice.

What I am saying is that you (everyone really) should look at all the evidence and try to make sense of the results in light of ALL the information available and not just what CAN BE MEASURED REALLY WELL.

It also makes sense to review prior opinions when new information comes in (basically when the horses run again) because we all make mistakes.

These subjective ideas are what lead me to the conclusions above. I did not come to them after the races. I came to them before.

For the record, I have not cashed a single bet on any of them. Just discussing the horses in hopes of cashing in the future.

The only bet I\'ve made in the last few weeks was During. My opinion and reason for that bet was  clear. He stalked a blazing pace in a very high quality and deep field that I thought was better than EVERYONE\'s speed figure indicated.  

Good Luck.

Really, just trying to discuss horses and performances etc... I think your work is awesome. Not being critical.

[TGJB]

I think the moon is made of green cheese. If you ask me to prove it I will say it is my opinion, and beyond silly for anyone with moon-gazing experience (defined as those  who agree and don\'t ask for evidence) to think otherwise.

And I\'m not too sure about gravity, either-- after all, look at all those airplanes flying around.

It is apparent you do not want to not ackowledge or discuss the way some things impact race results and times because they can\'t be measured with the same precision as other factors. You would rather simply ignore them.  

Personally, I don\'t know a single handicapper with more than a few years of experience that doesn\'t acknowledge the impact of pace on both results and time.

It really doesn\'t matter whose figures you are using. You can usually get a reasonable guage on who the contenders are going in even if the figures you are using aren\'t as accurate as \"your figures\".

You then watch the race race development. Somtimes the extremeness of the pace is very apparent - so is its effect on the outcome.

Second, it is also abundently clear that two brilliant speed handicappers can subjectively analyze the results of a few races and come to different conclusions about how fast the track was and what the figure should really be.

Third, after you make your subjective figure, if the way the horses run coming out of that race indicates that the figure was wrong, you are better off fixing it than making excuses for every horse or saying they all improved.

Grand Hombre ran exactly as I expected. He\'s a pretty good horse that spotted the winner a few lengths because of his wide trip. That was good enough to beat him.  The other horses coming out of the PA Derby finished up the track - further indicating that the PA Derby was not as fast as thought.

Toccet also ran horribly (though we all agreed he would have to improve a real lot to run well in that spot) further indicating the PA Derby was not that strong.

In fact, the only horse to run huge coming out of the PA Derby was Dynever who made a huge close off a slow pace into a reasonable fast race - because he didn\'t like the mud the night of the PA Derby and did not fire that night.

[TGJB]

Boy, if only you had told us how you thought Grand Hombre would run BEFORE the race we might take it seriously! I guess you didn\'t have room in those posts yesterday.

Against my better judgement, I might do a point by point later, although this really is kid\'s stuff.