TG Sheets for BC 2011 w/Final Figures

[TGAB]

Thoro-Graph sheets for the full cards on both Breeders\' Cup days, November 4th and 5th, 2011 with final figures are now available to download on the Race of the Week page.

[Silver Charm]

Amazombie made my day! Flopped him into that early Pick 4 in place of Jackson Bend at around midnite on Friday and in the Sprint Exacta with Force Freeze. Figured he had better tactical postion, and had broken into the 1:08 range more times, and there could be the West Coast figure jump.

Looks like from the number he got it was a lot of good guessing.

[jimbo66]

TGJB,

Please admonish Silver Charm for insinuating that the California figures might be too slow....  (I was holding my tongue on Anazombie...)

As for the rest of the figures, nothing too controversial IMO.  Classic was pretty slow, but that was expected.  2 year old Fillie turf was slower than I thought, but can\'t argue with it.  Boy did Union Rags get a rough trip (5w/5w).  

Plus, all is right in the world when Giant Oak runs his \"0\"!  The all-time most consistent horse.

[TGJB]

Were there other dirt horses from California in the BC?

[Silver Charm]

Agreed.....and except for maybe Switch.....most of them didnt fire......

[P.Eckhart]

Wrote TG 7 -- 2w2w -- 1.37.41s
Court Vision TG -1/4 -- 2w3w -- 1.37.05s

2L diff of time plus 1L diff of ground does not equate anywhere near to 7.25pts diff of TG. On purely time, the diff between them would be only TG 1.5 (Not to mention the track being changed gd - fm during the day)

Just illustrating the point that TG are not making time based speed figures here, but performance based figures.  

If you look at the mile. None of them have ever ran as \"quick\" as -1/4 except Goldikova (once) and Gio Ponti (twice). Yet we know the race was far from quick in absolute terms. I think a sl_pace designation might be warranted to put some more perspective on the number itself.

[big18741]

Ice Box sure likes CD.

Right back in the Clark Handicap?

[miff]

P.Eckert,

Perfect example, there are many others.In projection, the clock(the only science) is sometimes ignored and the names of the runners in the race and what they usually run trumps all.A review of the Beyer figs shows an even greater difference between Wrote and CV.Anyone have Rags?The 4 lb weight difference noted.

The answer to this question that some fig makers give is simply \"how likely is it that a 2yr old ran almost as fast as older grade 1\'s without running away farther from that 2 yr old field\" In one case, they are projecting off older stakes horses running in the zero-1 range,in the other, juvies, off like 8\'s,raw ignored.

It  makes little sense that two races run over a course with no real change in speed(if anything faster for CV race) are that close in final time,so the answer was to ditch the clock and go off history of the participants in both races.Pace was not really a big issue, imo.


I have seen Lebron outscored by a sub, the best pitchers get knocked out in the first inning by the worst hitting team, Albert Pujols slump and many great athletes under perform. In racing, there is no such thing when making figures.

It\'s impossible that an empty Goldikova, a common slug like CV and the rest were almost performance matched by a 2 yr old.


Mike

[P.Eckhart]

I have no problem with their numbers, I was only suggesting it might flagged. It\'s clear the turf mile was v.slow. However, that doesn\'t mean it has no merit. What definitely has no merit would be to give the turf mile a 100% clock based speed figure. (Especially for pattern readers like TG folks)

[miff]

Eck,

Agree but also highlights a flaw in the projection methodology. Whatever does not \"add up to norm\" is discarded and replaced by creative license.Keeps things nice and tidy and allows Lebron, and the rest to, on rare occasion,score 8 but get credit for 28.


Mike

[P.Eckhart]

I\'m not getting what is discarded and replaced that creates a flaw in projection.

Also, \'creative license\' is also required in making clock based variants, so to hang that tag on projection as if it were a weakness doesn\'t get anywhere.



miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Eck,
>
> Agree but also highlights a flaw in the projection
> methodology. Whatever does not \"add up to norm\" is
> discarded and replaced by creative license.Keeps
> things nice and tidy and allows Lebron, and the
> rest to, on rare occasion,score 8 but get credit
> for 28.
>
>
> Mike

[TGJB]

Correct, the race should have been marked \"S. Pace\". What\'s a reasonable pace for horses that run 10\'s is not for horses that run 1\'s.

Miff-- I don\'t know what the Lebron stuff was all about, but add six to the Mile and see if it makes any sense. Really think all those horses chose the exact same time to stink it up (and to the same degree)? And by the way, while I think that in this case it\'s true, you don\'t KNOW the track was the same speed, you assume it. The only way to determine that is by seeing how fast horses run.

[TGJB]

Actually, a lot of the Cal horses did fire-- right to their figures (Switch, Secret Circle, Ultra Blend, Game On Dude, Weemissfrankie). Tres Borrachos was the only other one that did run a new top.

[TGJB]

Actually, let me amend that. It MAY have been the pace. But this is a situation where you just have to go by the horses, and not worry about the cause-- you clearly can\'t do the race with the other grass races.

[Silver Charm]

Lol....I only remember the two I bet. BTW-this is the second year in a row Calder churned out a Winner. Probably a good thing for having a more neutral location than Santa Anita every year

Good Job on these figures and The Analysis. As you can tell I used some of the recommended horses and some others.