Fast pace, new top

[TGJB]

Maybe. But I\'m really kicking myself for not betting Congaree in the futures.

[Silver Charm]

You guys are dead on when it comes to these Older Horses being the ones to beat. They are all just too good and fast.

The demise of Empire Maker and Funny Cide on the shelf, probably until next year, leaves this crop of three year olds as one of the worst in history. Empire Maker was probably the biggest media hype job since OFFICER.

There won\'t be a single three year old even come close to hitting the board on Breeders Cup Day.

[jbelfior]

Silver Charm---

I agree. I wish all of the top 3yos were healthy now and running. They would all be overbet, especially FUNNY CIDE.

I also agree with TGJB. I think CONGAREE will be a handful at Santa Anita. I stopped short of playing him in the Futures thinking there was a chance Baffert would put him in the Sprint.

PS: Anyone give RISKAVERSE a chance tomorrow with her post position advantage?


Good Luck at the Windows,
Joe B.

[derby1592]

Do you think Congaree can give weight to Ten Most Wanted at 10f and win? I guess Patient Pat might keep TMW 4 wide throughout again and wait too long to go after Congaree but I don\'t think I would bet on it.

But now the TMW camp is even making noises about passing up the BC, which makes no sense at all given that a Classic win will probably make TMW the 3yo champ.

Still, with Candy Ride and Perfect Drift already opting out and with Mineshaft likely to skip it with a win Saturday maybe that future bet would not look too bad right now. In fact, with all the defections maybe there is another Arcangues lurking in the shadows waiting to pull another SA BC Classic shocker...

Cheers.

Chris

[Silver Charm]

Or maybe another Volponi.

Hey wait maybe Volponi is the next Volponi.

[JR]

Hadn\'t heard Mineshaft was passing. How likely is that?

[alm]

It\'s funny how so many people have a vivid memory of this race.  I also remember it because I was tracking Festin most of that season and also bet him in the race, believing that his form was peaking.  It was serendipitous that the pace scenario also set up for him, making it an easier win than many anticipated.  

Based upon what I remember of the horse\'s season, I think that Jerry is right.  This was the peak and it was downhill afterwards. He continued to run well, but not AS well.

As a breeder/owner it seems clear that these are not machines earning numbers.  We have to deal with stifles, ankles, knees, hocks, you name it, from week to week.  Only rare horses maintain the same form for lengthy periods because of their nagging aches.

Festin could very likely have gotten messed up or \'loosened\' up in any number of joints in that race...no serious injury, but more of an aging, wearing down kind of thing.  

All in all, it\'s a far more real life explanation than assigning a tea leaf analysis to the horse\'s numbers.

>Based upon what I remember of the horse\'s season, I think that Jerry is right. This was the peak and it was downhill afterwards. He continued to run well, but not AS well.>

He ran just as well afterwards. I still have his past performances, Beyer figures etc.... He won the JC Gold Cup afterwards earning his 2nd fastest figure of the year, but it was nowhere near as fast as the Big Pace race.

This one race doesn\'t prove anything anyway.

It\'s a difficult thing to measure and prove because there is so much subjective analysis involved in figure making and the result of any one race.

I think you have to simply look at a lot of races with extremely fast early paces and use your common sense about whether or not it benefited the closers to not have to work as hard in the late middle of the race to improve their postion as everyone collapses. If yes, did it allow them to run a bit faster?

[alm]

Beyer figures?  Oy Veh Isht Mir!

[Michael D.]

in some races, jockeys will choose to rate their horses well behind slow paces. the most obvious examples of this tactic are Santos and Samyn. some jockeys will not chose to use this tactic. this smarter group of jockeys include Bailey and Velazquez. in the aggregate, you will find that slower races do indeed produce slower times, simply because some jockeys have a game plan going in; they want to come from off the pace, regardless of how fast or slow they are running. if all jockeys had the pace instinct of Bailey, pace would not influence the final time of horse races. unfortunately, all jockeys do not have this instinct. of course, there are exceptions. i think Balto Star set a track record last month over at Mth after setting a slow pace in a turf marathon. i have been looking at this subject for a number of years now, and i am quite confident in my conclusions. i wish i had documented my findings over the years, but i think any handicapper could do the work quite easily........ funny how everybody remembers the festin race. i was in the top row at the far left side of the Belmont grandstand that day, and had a great view of festin while he swept by the field. think there was another big time closer in that race, maybe Strike the Gold? anyway, i always liked festin, and remember being quite upset when he won without my money...
as for TMW, i do think he was helped along by the ultra quick SAR strip and the fast pace on travers day, and i would be very suprised if he ever came within three or four points of his travers # while running ten furlongs without the same ideal conditions.

[OPM]

Congaree, congaree but I forget to bet him in the futures, damm it.  Hopefully, I will get something good a couple of days before the race, maybe 8-1.

[Michael D.]

how does Horse know how to rate five lengths off the 45 pace, and ten lengths off the 46 pace? what if the jockey strangles the horse, and he site ten lengths off a 47 pace, which we have all seen before. does the horse still run the distance in the same time? take a look at a bunch of races and see how many times a horse runs the same fractions with varying paces. more often than not, you will find that a horse will run slower fractions in races with slower paces, and more often than not, the horse will not be able to make up the ENTIRE lost time in the final stages. again, there are plenty of exceptions, as some horse are quick enough to explode at the end and make up the difference. there are, however, plenty of grinding type horses who will not be able to make up the difference when rated too far off a slow pace.

[Michael D.]

\"and Heat Haze is in last, STILL ON HOLD?\"...
the call from Durkin today as they hit the top of the stretch (he phrased the call as if he could not believe what Valdivia was doing). the fractions were 1:15 and 1:39 over a firm course!!. one example proves nothing, but does anybody think Heat Haze would have run the same final time if the fractions had been 1:11 and 1:35 very, very doubtful. does anybody think festin would have run 1:46 whatever that day if the half had gone in :49?

[BB]

I think there are many memories of this race not just because it was such a great race - but because it was a rare spring day when the 3YOs and the handicap stars shared center stage.

That year the Nassau County was on the same card as the Belmont. It was also the first year of the ACRS, and the top older horses were starting to show up in the same gate. What I remember most about that race is how gamely Farma Way held on after helping to set that pace ... I think Gervazy took the place in the last jump or two. If memory serves I don\'t think Farma Way did all that much after that race, which also pretty much cooked Jolie\'s Halo.

Michael, Strike the Gold ran second to Hansel in the Belmont later that day.

[P-Dub]

What kind of s@!&%$@ is the Mineshaft camp pulling if they don\'t run in the Classic? I am so sick of these so called sportsman who consistently duck competition unless everything is working in their favor i.e. competition (the weaker the better), running at their favorite track, weights, etc... This is supposed to be racing\'s championship day, and horses are ducking it left and right. Pathetic. Its too bad these gutless owners aren\'t as competitive as the wonderful animals they own. All anyone cares about is stud fees. Empire Maker retiring as a 3yo and his last race was in August? Are you kidding me? And I\'m sorry but Perfect Drift drilled Mineshaft earlier this year. I don\'t care what the supplemental fee is, this horse is 1) a top contender for the Classic, 2) hasn\'t he won enough money to cover the supplemental fee?? Is it any wonder racing is in the woeful shape that it is? Can you imagine the A\'s skipping game 1 of the ALDS because Pedro is pitching? Forgive the rant, but I\'m getting tired of dealing with this year after year.