Fast pace, new top

[OPM]

In the thread below, JB asked how a fast pace will help a horse artificially run a new top and there was no answer.  I think we are all aware how a slower horse can bet faster horses who get killed in a speed duel but I don\'t know if a fast pace can cause a horse to run a new top.  Any comments?

>In the thread below, JB asked how a fast pace will help a horse artificially run a new top and there was no answer.>

I gave several answers to the question, but perhaps I still was not clear. I\'ll try one more time.

Different parts of a race can be fast or slow. If the pace is very fast early it tends to tire the front runners. That allows closers to work less hard than they normally do when they make their moves to overtake those tired horses.

Don\'t think of pace strictly as the fractions. Think of it as the amount of energy the individual horse uses before the stretch run to get and maintain position to win. If it uses an excessive amount (no matter when - it depends on style) it hurts the horse.  If it gets that position in a more even paced and relaxed mode it helps it.

[JimP]

It\'s still not clear. Let\'s say a given horse (named Horse) is a closer in a 6 furlong race. Let\'s say that Horse is in a race with a fast pace. The pace setter (named Pace) runs the half in :45. Horse sits 10 lengths off this fast pace. So Horse gets the half in :47. (I\'m rounding to keep the example simple). And Horse closes to win in a final time of  1:11. According to my calculation Horse ran the final quarter in :24 to do that. In the next race, the pace is a slow :46 for the half and Horse is sitting 5 lengths off that pace so that Horse runs the half in :47. Why should I expect Horse to be able to run a final quarter any faster or slower in this race than the :24 he ran in the first race? According to my calculation Horse should have used the same amount of energy to the half in both (i.e., he ran a :47, laying well off the pace in both).

[TGJB]

Class Handicapper--
Okay, that\'s three times. You seem to have a theory as to why it SHOULD help. But if you have any EVIDENCE that a fast pace improves the FIGURES of closers, present it please. Or, as I said, give us examples where it will happen in advance. Otherwise we are back to mystical handicapping theories like class.

What we try to do here is measure the things that can be measured. I would also point out that since you haven\'t spent a lot of time using sophisticated figures that incorprate ground loss, you are left judging by who WINS races, and how the closers fare on other figures that don\'t factor in wide trips in bunched up fields due to slow paces.

Beyond that, Jim stole my thunder with the previous post.

In your example there would probably be little difference, but that is not what often happens in the real world. What happens in the real word  \"effort\" when horses are making their moves. Sometimes it lasts for less than 2 furlongs, but if you have been going to the races for years it is easy to tell when a horse is working hard to get, improve, or maintain position and when it is not. Pace is best measured using both fractions and visual skills because pace figures alone are 10 times more difficult to be totally accurate with than final time.

>But if you have any EVIDENCE that a fast pace improves the FIGURES of closers, present it please.<

I made my own Beyer-like speed and pace figures for years and I currently look at several sets regularly (that include the track variant used).

I spent most of my reseach time years ago looking at high levels stakes horses because I believe they are more consistent. That way I would have a better chance to isolate pace as factor in final time.

Over the years I ran into numerous examples of closers that put in lifetime top figures off a duel in front of them. Much more than I would have expectd to see were it a random occurrence. The horses invariably went back to their normal figures afterwards. You categorize that as a bounce. I categorize lot of performance moves like that as a bounce also, but not these. I was suspicious.

So I started thinking about why this could be happening. In observing the way races developed, I came to understand that closers also have periods in a race where they are either being used hard or not to get or improve position. One might call it a duel behind the leaders to catch up.  

So you are right. It is a theory. But it is a theory that is consistent with observations of duels on the front end and what happens to the horses. It is also consistent with what would happen if you and I went to the track and clocked ourselves under various pace scenarios. It\'s quite logical. If I run too fast and hard in the middle of the race, it will hurt me.

>give us examples where it will happen in advance. Otherwise we are back to mystical handicapping theories like class. <

That is impossible. I can rarely predict with \"certainty\" how a race will develop. However, I do try to gain an edge where I can.

What I can do is after the fact is tell you that a specific horse (closer) had a perfect trip behind collapsing duelers and was able to improve his position mid race without any extreme effort. Therefore, the figure he earned under those optimum conditions is less likely to be duplicated. I would also say that if you made a separate variant for that race because the final time did not seem to fit in with the rest of the day, you might be adjusting that time for the impact of the pace and NOT for the track speed without even knowing it. (read that sentence again) Therefore, you would getting the right answer for the wrong reason.

What I would suggest to you is that whenever you see a very slow or very fast pace and/or extreme battles on the front end to make note of it when you actually make the figure.

In the mean time, next time a major horse that we are all familiar with earns a huge figure under ideal circumstances or a really bad one under terrible conditions, I will point out the race and horse and why I think the figure is an incorrect refelction of its prior performance beforehand.

[jbelfior]

TGJB---

Want a real life example. Look back at the speed figure obtained by a one run closer named FESTIN when he blew by both JOLIE\'s HALO and FARMA WAY who set an insane :44 half mile in the one turn 1 1/8 Nassau County Hdcap at Belmont back in the early 90\'s. FESTIN never came close to approaching that figure before or after. I use this race from that far back because #1) it was a GR I race; #2) it was around 1 turn at Belmont which pretty much negates the ground loss factor. #3) there\'s no debate that the horse could possibly run back to that figure since his career is obviously over. In my opinion, there is no who can argue that FESTIN did not obtain that one time outstanding \"performance figure\" without the help of an overly fast pace.


Thanks,
Joe B.

[TGJB]

1 1/8th at Belmont has a 5f straight run without a turn (turns in general are worth roughly 1 second). Which way was the wind blowing, and how much was there?

One problem with this kind of analysis is that one alternative argument is that the horse never ran back to the big figure because he was ruined by it, and there is no way to settle that one.

[jbelfior]

TGJB---

I agree with your alternative argument. That certainly could have been the case with FESTIN. I used him as an example since he was a 5YO and had never approached that # prior.


Thanks,
Joe B.

>Festin<

Yes. Thank You. I was actually going to use the same exact example, but held back because I expected that no one would be convinced by that one race.

IMO, anyone that thinks Festin \"just happen to peak that day\" is in \"handicapping denial\" just as Andy Beyer was back in the 70s when he insisted in Picking Winners that pace \"never\" matters. That was too silly a statement to even bother arguing about. Festin always suffered from a style deficiency. I happened to have been there and bet him that day and you could visually see how easily he moved past a bunch of dead horses that raced on or near the lead that day. That one was obviously not a bounce performance. It was a performance that was aided by a perfect pace for a deep closer.  

Festin continued to run well afterwards. However, he went back to running figures (Beyers at least) right in the same range as he had been prior to the Nassau in his next 4 starts. One of them was another winning effort in the Jockey Club Gold Cup.  He did not go way off form or anything. He just never had another 44.2 and dead horses to run at.

>1 1/8th at Belmont has a 5f straight run without a turn (turns in general are worth roughly 1 second). Which way was the wind blowing, and how much was there?<

His move into the only turn was very wide. That much I remember. I cannot recall the wind, but I have his past performances with Beyers right in front of me. He was reasonably consistent in his figures and performances  both before and after that.

Since I can\'t remember what the wind was like I can\'t swear to anything. But I do know that the Beyer people were and are sharp enough to adjust a single figure that don\'t make sense even if at that time they weren\'t sharp enough to consider wind to be the reason. He won by a country block and the figure of the horse behind him (other than the duelers that died out) make sense.

I do realize one race does make a theory hold water. I am also simply suggesting that this was one very prominent example out of many years of observation that made me reach the logical conclusions I have.

[RICH]

Yes Festin, ridden by Eddie D. During that time the track was dead on the inside and was playing wide. I remember it like yesterday.

[Mall]

Funny how certain races become firmly cemented in one\'s mind. Based on the title, I was a bit surprised to read this thread, as I incorrectly assumed it dealt with \"unhandicappable\" horses like Najran who, on one occasion, set very fast fractions on an uncontested lead & tied the world dirt record for a mile. Or horses like Skip Away & Congaree who, as Steve Haskin recently pointed out, win races by being very close to a fast early pace & opening a clear lead, rather than trying to slow the early pace down as was done with Congaree in the Big Cap & KY Cup Classic. In Skip Away\'s case, he won 14 of 15 races where he had the lead at the quarter pole, even though his final quarter times were never all that strong. Expect a change in strategy when Congaree faces Mineshaft in the Classic.

[jbelfior]

Mall---

Why am I getting the feeling that if MINESHAFT wins the JCGC tomorrow (which he should with little trouble), Neil Howard avoids CONGAREE and MEDAGLIA D\'ORO at Santa Anita like the plague?


Joe B.

[Mall]

Joe B.---

Because you read trainer Howard\'s comments about the dangers of shipping West, & you also read the announcement re the stud fee next yr, & you\'re reading between the lines & putting 2 & 2 together? But he hasn\'t ducked anyone yet, his owners are true sportsmen, he has a great chance at HOY, etc.,etc. I\'m guessing like everyone else, but I think he\'ll run.