I Give Up

[TGJB]

At least 50 posts on the Preakness, not one of you guys mentions the clear horse to beat. Are we using the same data?

[sighthound]

Ouch.

Well .... uh .... um ....

[PonyBologna]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> At least 50 posts on the Preakness, not one of you
> guys mentions the clear horse to beat. Are we
> using the same data?


Someone call the Village People!

[phil23]

Is MMM at 6:1 a better wager than Flashpoint at 20:1?

[Holybull]

I don\'t think we\'ll get any better than 9-2 on MMM.  I hope that\'s who TGJB is talking about.

[trackjohn]

Mucho Macho Man....IMO, will get lost in the wagering...I\'m guessing between
 9/2 - 6/1...Will wait for the draw but at this point is my major \'key\' horse

John

[big18741]

I think a lot of people have trouble wrapping their head around Kathy Ritvo winning the Preakness.

Horse seems very logical to fire.My only questions would be the drifting at CD and Maragh tendency to get this horse wide trips.I\'m assuming it\'s due to his size/length-the rider isn\'t interested in putting him anywhere near the inside.He wants outside in the clear.

[MonmouthGuy]

I think so, hard to see Flashpoint getting 9.5F with this group considering Dance City and Shackleford ensure competition on front end.

[PonyBologna]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> At least 50 posts on the Preakness, not one of you
> guys mentions the clear horse to beat. Are we
> using the same data?

"It's not hard to make up three lengths,''

http://www.drf.com/news/preakness-maragh-confident-mucho-macho-man-can-turn-tables-animal-kingdom

[magicnight]

If AK is fastest of these routing in 2011 and if his pattern suggests he is 60% to pair or top, doesn\'t that make him the horse to beat?

Guess he will go back at some point or another, but it doesn\'t have to be Saturday.

[jbelfior]

TGJB:

Jerry: While I respect your product and your opinion, a \"clear horse to beat\" in any spring 3 yo crop, particularly this one, is a tough \"sell\" regardless of the quality of your ratings.

Nevertheless, looking forward to finding out who the mystery colt is.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[phil23]

Well hell, let\'s actually figure this out the best way possible.  Let\'s do the math.

First we need the % chances for each horse, with no takout (to 100%).  Certainly room for differing opinions here, but given the #\'s and the available info, here\'s what I get (again, this is NOT a morning line or post time odds, it\'s the actual chances, imo, of the horse winning):


Mucho Macho Man   3.0   25% - best 2yo# by far to run back to, fwd moving pattern
Animal Kingdom   4.0   20% - dirt expl in last, short rest
Flash Point   6.5   13% - fastest # in field, tons of rest, distance ?
Dance City   12   7.7% - TAP, good rest,
Shackleford   15   6.3% - short rest, 0/2/X?
Dialed In   17   5.6% - slow, but what will they do for 5.5M?
Astrology   20   4.8% - lots of excuses in 3yo starts so far
Sway Away   25   3.8% - Gomez
Mid. Inter   30   3.2% - bounced big in derby, SA # wasn\' that great anyway
Mr. Commons   30   3.2% - good rest, but slow
King Congie   40   2.4% - can he pull an AK (1st dirt 3yo) and explode?
Conc. ID   50   2.0% - has a fast # to get back to but off big bounce
Norm Asb   50   2.0% - rested, not terrible Goth #, slow Wood
Isn\'t He P   100   1.0% - over raced, would need 4 pt top (at least).

So, if MM has a 25% chance of winning the race and his present available odds are 7:1, which translates into a 12.5% chance, then the overlay is 25/12.5 = 2

Whereas if FP has a 13% chance of winning the race and his present available odds are 16:1, which translates into a 5.9%, then the overlay is 13/5.9 = 2.3

If (a big if I grant you) my true odds line is correct, FP is the better bet.  BUT  there\'s also the likely hood of cashing.  I seem to recall Jerry mentioning something about how it\'s usually better to take the lower odds overlay if it\'s close (and here it clearly is) due to the much improved chance of actually, you know, cashing.  As opposed to taking the slightly bigger value but having to wait out the much longer number of times before hitting.

[TGJB]

Whether I agree with the percentages or not, that\'s a pretty solid approach.

There\'s no reason you are restricted to only betting one horse if you have two big overlays, but yes, if the overlay is similar I would bet more on the one more likely to win.

[Michael D.]

he was 3w/3w in the Remson. 5 horses that day. 6 extra lengths in ground last 2.

how much ground will you factor in if he draws poorly? jock tends to run wide.

nice horse though, and the best sheet going in. very tough if he gets the trip.

[miff]

\"I think a lot of people have trouble wrapping their head around Kathy Ritvo winning the Preakness\".


.....once Chip Wolley won the derby, trainers were exposed as being relevant.