Derby Post Mortem

[mjellish]

I private messaged my thoughts on the Derby to a few people, so I\'m not red boarding.  Guess I\'m just venting.  But talk about just missing.

I used AAA and SHAK as my keys.

I made AK, DI, POF & MI my A horses.

NEH, SOL, MMM & STAY were B\'s.


I played $500 Oaks/Derby Doubles of JV/AK and SHAK.  I was also going to play a JV/AAA double but took a pass because of the whole rail thing and what the will pays looked like.  In any case I missed when JV came up empty at the top of the lane.  

As far as the Derby goes, had SHAK and AAA as my keys.  Had SHAK held on for 3rd I had a $200 Tri and a $2 Super. Don\'t know how much $ I would have taken down.  I\'m thinking $500k or so.

Officially I missed by 3/4 of a length, and I think i\'m still drunk from last night.

[plasticman]

Wow, that\'s rough, Shak ran awesome, tough way to lose.

How did you have a 200 tri, i\'d love to know how you structured that bet and now much you spent (if you dont mind) to be in a position to have needed Shak for a monster score.

[jbelfior]

MJ:

You\'re my idol.......seriously. You play the game the way it should be played. Fire away when the pot is filled with casual cash.

Obviously your model comes with a lot of pain, however you don\'t nickle and dime this game which is what many of us do because we\'re afraid to lose. I\'ll take 20 days like you had Saturday in exchange for one $500K takedown.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[mjellish]

Here it is Plastic.  I\'m still not over this one.  Can\'t help but to feel I let a big one get by me somehow.  Thought it was an excellent race to bet and felt pretty good about my chances going in.  

DI was very vulnerable having to get a pace to run at, pass 15-18 horses (meaning traffic or wide trip), was a little slow coming in and he did hurt his left hind training last week.  UM was also very vulnerable and I figured he would take a lot of dead money.  His scratch hurt, but then Calvin\'s horse was way overbet anyway to make up for it.  Thought AAA was most likely winner until he drew the rail.  Figured if he broke fast, got out and over and relaxed he was still most likely winner.  If not he was probably dead.  So I had to split my bankroll and pick another Key horse because I didn\'t want to bet everything on AAA knowing he had the rail and I knew better, but I also didn\'t want to toss him and then watch him win.  Really sucked.

But anyway, I decided on SHAK as my other key horse because I loved his sheet, he was training like a monster, and I loved how he re-broke as soon as he saw DI coming in the FL Derby.  He drew a neutral post and I hought he was very likely to be the last of the speed horses to hang around.  I even figured he could possibly win if the pace was slow enough (which it was, he just wasn\'t good enough at 1 1/4).  

Of the rest the only one\'s I thought could win were AK - worked like an absolute monster last week, had dirt in his pedigree, bred to love the added distance, outstanding connections, right style, and he\'s obviously a very nice horse that gives his all every race.  MI had an outside shot if he paired or moved forward and got the right trip (I had his SA Derby faster).  And POF drew really well and was likely to get a good trip, so if he paired or moved forward he could have got there too, although I thought he was really overbet as well.

I thought NEH, MMM, STAY and SOL were better than the rest and more likely to hit the board than anyone else.  Was a little worried that SOL could spoil my whole bet and win outright, but decided to take my chances coming off an 0-2-X.  NEH looks like a horse that loves to take second and never wins, so I figured I would use him but if he won I would let him beat me.  MMM was training well, had lots of rest, a good number to run back to, but not really bred to run a new top at 1 1/4.  STAY had a good number to run back to as well and was bred to love 1 1/4, so he scared me a bit but I decided to let him beat me as well.


So the structure was like this.

5x K/K/A
4x K/A/K
4x A/K/K

3x K/A/A
3x A/K/A
2x A/A/K

2x K/K/B
2x K/B/K
1x K/A/B
1x K/B/A

1x A/K/B
1x A/B/K

I effectively used ALL in the supers for the 4 spot, but I only had $1 Supers to DK, TWIN, WMG, CTTT, TTA, DM, SA, BS, MOH.

I also played some savers with TTA and MOH coming in 3rd since I didn\'t know much about MOH and I\'m just afraid of Calvin in the Derby.

The total bet cost $24k, of which half of that was mine, and was a complete miss.

Get em next year.

[big18741]

MJ

Just out of curiosity had AAA drawn well-how would you play it?

[big18741]

I know a single key but would you use him just to run 1-2?

[mjellish]

My plan would have been to key him in 1st, 2nd & 3rd.  Shak would have become an A horse.  Same structure, just more money on each and a few savers with the A\'s winning and/or hitting the board, and the B\'s hitting the board with the A\'s.  Still would not have had an A/B/B, so I still would have lost.

[mjellish]

Had someone PM me and someone else call me looking for clarification on that betting structure.  I sort of over simplified it in my post, so to clarify here it is.  

What I more or less did was group the horses into 4 groups, 2 Key horses, 4 A horses, 4 B horses, and then everyone else.  Out of my K horses I liked SHAK more than AAA because of the rail thing.  The way I saw it, SHAK had a better chance, or a higher probability of getting a decent enough trip to be around at the end finish than AAA because I figured if AAA didn\'t get out he was probably a dead duck and not even a good candidate to hit the board.  So I had a K horse and K- horse, and I played SHAK stronger than AAA.  In the A group of horses I liked DI and AK better than MI & POF, so I had A and A- and played the A\'s stronger.  And I liked NEH and MMM man better than SOL and STAY, so I had B & B- and played the B\'s stronger as well.

So it\'s basically a variation of K/A/B.  Just K K-, A A-, B B-.  And to make it more complicated, I had TTA and MOH as C+ saver horses.

As I said in one of my posts before the Derby, I am willing to do that extra work because I think it helps me get my money down more on where I like it and increases my edge.  Why play STAY as strong as NEH if you really don\'t like him as much.  

I had to punch out over 100 separate tickets, which took over 30 minutes.  My teller girl Tammy at Canterbury closes her window for me on Derby day, and I have a wing man that stands next to me, checks the tickets as they come out and tells people that get behind me that the window is closed so they don\'t stand there and get upset when they miss the 4th at Tampa.

If you want to get an edge you\'ve got to be willing do to stuff like that.  You can\'t just handicap.  That\'s the fun part.  You have to spend as much or more time on structure to figure out how to best turn your opinions into money.  I literally right down my opinions on paper before I even begin to work on the bet.  And I use an Excel spread sheet.  

Not that any of this helped me this year.

[drbillym]

MJ, don\'t be offended by this question, but why didn\'t you post your final thoughts/selections prior to the derby?  I, like many other regulars on this board, look forward to your input.  In the weeks leading up, it was great to read your posts, realizing that you were dissecting every variable.  I told my buddies I liked AK, but was waiting to read your posts for my exotic bets.  I guess it wouldn\'t have helped, as we both left out Nehro.  My picks finished first, third and fourth-so maybe it is best to have only myself to blame.  But I am wondering why you didn\'t make that final post, rather than private message a select few.  Certainly the pool is big enough that even Jerry wouldn\'t affect the odds(tho maybe you were afraid of Repole reading your post!) And certainly there is no need to feel embarrassed if your advice is wrong.  You have posted your final selections in the past.  Now in no way do I feel we deserve the fruits of your hard labor, just wanted to mention that we would love to see them in the next two legs.  Good Luck and thanks for the posts you did make.

[MonmouthGuy]

Dr.  We bet it the same way.  1st, 3rd and 4th; no Nehro.  No exotics.

[mjellish]

Hi Dr,

I probably will never make a post with complete bet structure on a board before a race.  I don\'t know who else is out there reading, and the simple fact is the more money that gets bet like me the less I make.  Sorry if that sounds selfish, but there are some big players out there.

I\'m happy to share opinions and participate in discussions and don\'t have any fear of being wrong.  I\'m wrong more than I\'m right.  But I do have my moments.  

I look at this board as more of a place to share ideas, have a good discussion, than I do about trying to give out winners.

[analizethis]

Feeding off that theme I have two questions. On the sheet for Soldat it noted the following percentages off his t - o - x pattern:
               
Size   Top   Pair   Off   X   Total
159       5%       23%      30%      42%      100%   which, for that size is  
          8        37       47       67       160  (rounding)

Does anyone know the ROI when betting this pattern? Given that the public focuses on the last or last 2 races maybe it is positive even with this low probability for a new top and moderate probability for a pair.

The second question is how these % change change when one or more of the races is on an off track (Soldat\'s case)? A big number on an off track may just indicate an affinity for that type of surface or running style it might favor.

[miff]

Analyze,

Using unfiltered stats of any kind in this game is a recipe for disaster.Your point about the slop fig is valid as well as any biases that may have existed during the 0 2 X.


Mike

[mlnolan00]

Thank you for posting your wagering technique.  I would consider myself a solid handicapper but a somewhat pusillanimous bettor.  I\'ve been burned in the past by not constructing aggressive enough wagers (too thrifty) or wagers that don\'t mirror/emphasize how I view a race\'s contenders and pretenders.  No amount of TG, pp\'s, etc. will overcome passive betting and that is the main part of my game that I\'m working to improve.
Your methodology is very similar to how I break down a race intellectually but have a hard time articulating through my betting.  Wise strategies are something I\'m trying to accumulate in my handicapping toolbox and I may have to try out a variation of your skillfulness to help sharpen my own play.  Thank you again for taking the time to post your wagering process and approach.

[Rick B.]

I couldn\'t be this articulate in ten lifetimes, so I\'ll just say \"ditto\".

Would that there was a product on the market to help us improve our wagering with the same efficacy as TG\'s Sheets. You think mutuels are tiny now? What if some of us knew how to bet?