Amateur ROTW -- Derby Trial

[Rick B.]

Instead of bugging the TG brain trust for a ROTW, I thought I\'d take a shot.

(Critics welcome -- just remember what you paid for this.)

The Derby Trial is a one-turn mile race at Churchill Downs, and as the 8th race on a \"special night racing card\" (i.e., DrunkFest), the race will be run well after sundown with the lights in full effect.

#1 Duca: no real development at 2, improved to break maiden at 3yo debut, then tanked in the Wood where he reportedly bled. Even if he returns to the maiden race number, he\'s just too slow.

#2 Travelin Man: his sheet reminds me of Curlin going into the Derby, for the line if not the exact numbers: nothing at age two, orgasmic debut followed by two very respectable races (of course, Curlin WON his first three). In the old days I\'d be tempted to take a shot against such a horse, hoping the wheels were about to come off...but not anymore. As much as I hate to say it, he\'s a solid \"use\" here in the exotics.

#3 Machen: another with no races at age two then an incredible debut...unlike Travelin Man, though, Machen bounced to the moon in his second race (and still won, beating an incomprehensibly crappy field in plow-horse-slow time), then stunk it up in his next two. This poor horse needs a break -- he never recovered from his debut, bore out in his last, and is now trying a 5th race in 17 weeks -- why? What\'s the hurry?

#4 Beamer: Showed a forging line early, then got the bounce and the off races out of the at Tampa, and now returns to Kentucky where Nafzger\'s horses always perk up. Needs things to go significantly wrong for several others in here in order for him to win outright (or perhaps another lucky, random ride from Borel), but is a \"must use\" at a fat price for 2nd on down.

#5 JJ\'s Lucky Train: shows a very slight in-and-out pattern, and this one is the \"in\". A definite fit on the numbers. Can\'t fault those who like him -- he was visually impressive in winning the Bay Shore, and seems to be developing into one of those stakes horses that just won\'t give up. Solid contender.

#6 Dominus: Asmussen charge ships in off maiden breaker at Santa Anita. Tough read, as Asmussen usually send them fit and ready to run at first asking, with not a whole lot more development to come...but I\'m going to go anti-stat here and speculate that a lightly raced son of Smart Strike has every right to improve at Churchill, and having Julian Leparoux aboard is simply another plus. I might be out of my mind, but I\'m going to call this one a contender.

#7 Indian Winter: hasn\'t developed much, disappointed at 7/10on in a cheap stakes race at Turf Paradise, and simply no reason to expect better here. Toss.

#8 Indiano: shows a small forging line in his two U.S. starts -- after 5 straight wins outside the U.S. His last race puts him in the mix for the exotics. Extra furlong is not an issue -- a one-turn mile is merely a long sprint. Go-Go in the irons is a plus.

#9 BG Suavecito: almost a shame it is that this colt is entered here! After a precocious beginning as a 2yo, the wheels came off and stayed off for about 6 months, and he just recently started to get it back together, showing a nice pair-up and decent spacing. Has every right to move forward here -- and has performed well under the lights at Retama, Delta, and Evangeline (hmm!). I\'m probably reaching if I call this one a contender, but if he does go off at 30-1 or more I will definitely take a small WP flyer on him, and of course use him in the exotics.

Summary
* Travelin Man, JJ\'s Lucky Train and Dominus are contenders

* Beamer, Indiano, BG Suavecito underneath

* Machen will suck away money creating value elsewhere

* Race has \"dime supers\" written all over it -- don\'t forget those

[FrankD.]

Nice post and analysis Rick !


A tricky little race for sure, I got the TG-analysis at the Albany Tele-Theater and TGAB ( I\'m assuming he wrote it ? ) likes one of your underneaths over the 2 favorites !!!

[Silver Charm]

Nice work! It takes some courage to put yourself out there.

[big18741]

Travelin Man,JJ\'s and Indiano all logical but I\'m keying on Dominus to improve a few and come running late.

The other one I\'m interested in seeing run is Winter Indian.His sheet looks awful but in his last two routes he was pretty much strangled into submission.Two sharp four furlong works on the cushion track and I think they\'re gonna let him run his race-whatever that may be cutting back.I\'d expect him to be forwardly placed.

[Rick B.]

Wow. One out of three is horrible:

* correct about Dominus

* WRONG about Travelin Man; making note that maybe Pletcher will go \"cold\" in Ky. again.

* WRONG about Machen; looked at his sheet ten times this morning and still don\'t see it. (Anyone? What did I miss?)

I don\'t see Neil Howard as a \"sudden form reversal\" trainer, so I\'m wondering if maybe Machen is simply a one-turn horse.

Somebody else take a shot next time. Not as easy as JB & Alan make it look.

[bstaubs22]

Machen looked gorgeous on the track and I was hoping he would run something approaching his first out fig. IMO he had a nice class advantage over these. The one thing I love to play at CD, is the cutback at the one turn mile. This angle was the main reason I played Machen. It also appeared that speed was not very good last night.

[Rick B.]

bstaubs22 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Machen looked gorgeous on the track and I was
> hoping he would run something approaching his
> first out fig. IMO he had a nice class advantage
> over these. The one thing I love to play at CD, is
> the cutback at the one turn mile. This angle was
> the main reason I played Machen. It also appeared
> that speed was not very good last night.

Thanks.

Not to sound ungrateful, but what I was looking for was, what did I miss on his SHEET? Appearances, cutback angle, back track...all valid considerations, but not really TG related.

[123]

I got burned by Machen too. Ran his derby race first time out and looked terrible pattern wise with a 6 bo last time. The 2nd time he\'s bore out. Don\'t think you missed anything just a fluke outcome pattern wise. One turn maybe his thing.

[bstaubs22]

Sheet wise his numbers on the last 2 races were a little worrisome. The bo last time was my biggest concern. Being out of a More Than Ready dam I just believed he was going to relish 1-turn and his number would come closer to the first out race since it was his only other start at 1-turn.

[moosepalm]

Rick B. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

> Not to sound ungrateful, but what I was looking
> for was, what did I miss on his SHEET?
> Appearances, cutback angle, back track...all valid
> considerations, but not really TG related.


At the risk of sounding heretical in this neighborhood, though I doubt I am, I haven\'t found that the sheets have the redboarding answer for every race.  It\'s quite possible you didn\'t miss anything on his sheet.

[Rick B.]

moosepalm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> At the risk of sounding heretical in this
> neighborhood, though I doubt I am, I haven\'t found
> that the sheets have the redboarding answer for
> every race.  It\'s quite possible you didn\'t miss
> anything on his sheet.

Thanks Moose.

Dare I say I am at 80% proficiency in reading / using the Sheets? Hard to assess, but I am FAR from the day when I\'ll think that I know all that I need to know. I was somewhat sure that I didn\'t miss anything, but as poster bstaubs points out, there was the return to a one-turn mile to consider...so maybe I could have called Machen a defensive use off that alone. Always more to learn.

Fantastic forum here: everybody is pretty generous with their expertise, without lording it over anybody, for which I am most appreciative.

[sekrah]

Rick.   Machen did have it going for him that he was a few months off his top and was eligible to wheel back to.  He\'s going to be one of those horses I think.  

I used him in exotics yesterday, but I wouldn\'t bet him next time out (unless he\'s got about 8 weeks off).