Wanted, a 3 year old that is bettable to win the derby...

[number5858]

alm Wrote:
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> The numbers are everything, for sure, but if we
> look at the horses who have been improving from
> race to race, in gradual patterns, Dialed In and
> Nehro stand out....

As far as Dialed In goes, don\'t forget how crafty Zito is. He has a record as good as anyone with the triple crown races.

[big18741]

Alm

Are we sure Dialed In is improving from race to race and as the distances increase?
I\'d like to see his Fla Derby # first.I thought Shacklefords race more impresssive all things considered.

Pretty safe to say that Nehro has but now we have a couple of questions to answer:

How much did he jump yesterday from the LA Derby and can he fire again on three weeks?Asmussen in the Derby has pretty much been a disaster with horses coming in off new tops in the last prep.

[big18741]

Number5858

Fittest horse in the race is gonna be Toby\'s Corner but you won\'t know it off published works.They run,work,exercise, jog over anything imaginable at Fair Hill.Published works on the Tapeta but day to day exercise on you name it-up hills,on grass,in the snow ,mud, dirt whatever.He\'s also run four times this year.

His pp\'s will show a race in the Wood then one slow Fair Hill work a week before the Derby but don\'t be fooled.If your criteria is fitness he\'s your horse.

My issues with him will be how he handles Churchill and his trip.Think he\'s okay on #\'s but no way to know till we see the Wood score.

[ajkreider]

Will be one of my two key horses, with Dialed In, and should be a price.

Both of the horses won\'t seem to be hurt by the extra distance, and that means alot in the Derby.  Galloped way out in front after the Ark. Derby

[MonmouthGuy]

I doubt Nehro will be a price.  He has \"wise guy\" horse written all over him and I think will go off at lower odds than in either of his preps. I think Nehro and Dialed In will be two of the top 4 choices.

[streetbull]

MonmouthGuy Wrote:
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> I doubt Nehro will be a price.  He has \"wise guy\"
> horse written all over him and I think will go off
> at lower odds than in either of his preps. I think
> Nehro and Dialed In will be two of the top 4
> choices.


Agreed....better than looked trip..strong galloped out...shrewd trainer..

In most years, the Derby has been clear where you can form a strong opinion from a strong last race or a formful prep campaign....but this year is challenging to say the least...  Top contenders falling to the wayside...( To Honor and Serve-very impressive Nashua race in his two year season with a ultra impressive sustained fraction while easing up in the final sixteenth..) , (Premier Pegasus- closed on a wicked pace and then galloped home with ease in the San Felipe...but is now out.), (Uncle Mo- strong two year lines but didn\'t continued to race back to his two year old\'s lines- now he had GI tract infection), (The Factor-impressive first two turn race in the Rebel who was a major contender until he flipped his palate), and (Soldat-who had an ultra impressive race his first 3 year race but it was in the slop.  Big question if Soldat can be rated and what happened when he chased Shackleford\'s fast early pace in the Florida Derby??)

So does this year\'s Derby come down to who is working out impressively at Churchill Downs??

PS..Congrats to APny on his selections in the Bluegrass...I do not know the stats on synthetics...But many major tracks have turned their dirt course into a second turf course as evidenced by the winners and second place finishers of the Breeder\'s Cup Classics when  they were held on the synthetics at Santa Anita...top finishers were Grade I Turf horses from  Europe..

[hotspringskid]

Does anyone remember who finished second in the Arkansas Derby last year? I think we\'ll get the same result from Nehro in the Kentucky Derby this year, although I do have a nice exacta bet with MMM and Uncle Mo in the first future pool. Good luck to all. Nice job yesterday sekrah and AP. I touted ArchArchArch at work all day friday and Nehro almost broke my heart. Whew!

[Michael D.]

Pants On Fire doesn\'t look like your classic Ky Derby winner, not with a couple of fade jobs over the Aqu inner on the resume, but he popped a top off a freshening in Dec, and another on 5 weeks first try 9f in the La Derby. Gets 6 weeks for the Derby, and is training lights out. Hot jock, and somewhat underrated pedigree. Kind of an all or nothing type, as he could very well spit the bit if things get too hot in the early stages, but garner a substantial tactical edge over colts like Arch, DI, and Nehro if rated along nicely a few lengths off a sensible pace. Just one to keep an eye on at a good price, as even a 1 or 2w run in the \'3\' range might be worth something this year.

[Caradoc]

Jimbo: It may not be so grim.  Here are some thoughts on what seem to be the main contenders.

At this point, Dialed In has to be the leader of the pack.  My guess is that he will go in reasonably fast because the Florida Derby will get a good number.  If so, however, he will have a questionable line.  He ran a 3¼ in the Holy Bull, his second start.  He bounced more than 2 points in the allowance race five weeks later.  If the Florida Derby was a fast number, the most likely outcome in the Derby will be another regression, probably to a number that will not be competitive.  Then there is the matter of how Zito is handling him, which by Zito's standards in unusual.  Dialed In breezed 12 days after the Holy Bull, then went two weeks without a recorded work.  If in fact he didn\'t breeze in that period, considering Nick\'s m.o., something was off.  In that period, Nicky announced he was passing the 400K Fountain of Youth in favor of the nothing allowance race a week later.  Very strange.  DI did not breeze until 19 days after the allowance race, his only recorded breeze before the Florida Derby.  Zito has announced that he will work him only twice between the Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby, adding to the mystery.  Is Zito trying to manage a physical problem? There is certainly some evidence for that.

Archarcharch has to be regarded a serious Derby horse.  He has a classic 10f pedigree, and looked very good sprinting late in the fall.  My guess is that he ran a small new top yesterday, one that does not have to knock him out in three weeks time.  Big pedigree, not overdeveloped, forging forward, all good things.  I am concerned about his running style, which seems to guarantee ground loss in large fields.  If you reversed his trip with Nehro's yesterday, he would have beaten Nehro by many lengths.  There should be no questions about who was best in that race.

Toby\'s Corner looks to be developing into a nice horse, another who ran reasonably fast in the late fall, but not too fast to raise concerns about his ability to hold his form.  (Anyone who ran close to zero in the fall is either struggling to get back to that number or off the Derby trail altogether.) Toby didn\'t look comfortable during the Wood and had to work hard down the stretch to win after getting in some trouble, but he did overcome that trouble, and showed good acceleration.  A tough call, but another horse who looks to have a forward move in him and will be very well prepared for Derby day.

Jaycito is still intriguing.  He is another horse that ran fast enough at 2 but not too fast.  His BC performance was troubling, and suggested a physical problem of some importance.  Further, my guess is that Baffert has been battling some physical problems with him during the spring even before the foot problem that caused him to miss the S.A. Derby.  His 3yo debut was a little late, and he missed a work at the end of March before the foot problem emerged.  Regardless, if Baffert can get the foot fixed, and he gets something out of the Lexington I will be interested in having a long look.  Jaycito also has a late-developing pedigree, so at some point he will run a big one this year on dirt, as long as he is healthy.

Soldat is not a horse I would key on, but he should improve off his flat Florida Derby performance.  He has two big back numbers.  The negative number in the slop would almost certainly win the Derby, and the FOY number would be very strong, particularly for a horse that has speed and can save some ground.  The history of horses coming into the Derby off consecutive backward moves is not good, however.

As for Midnight Interlude, he has improved a lot in a short period of time, and I would make him borderline in the Derby even were he to hold his form.