Florida Derby

[miff]

Florida Derby comes up very weak fig wise, winner in the TG 2-3 range at best. Track speed yesterday very close to Sat and the filly/mare races at 9f came up faster than the 3yr old colts yesterday.

Think Dialed In has a punchers chance assuming a fast pace in the derby notwithstanding his slowish last 1/8th yesterday.Up close was the place to be but in the FD a fastish pace caused the front of the field to weaken late.

THAS has not developed over the winter although he did more running yesterday than in his prior race.Agree he seems best up close or on the lead, not a chance of him  getting a soft derby trip. Would be surprised if he goes to the derby as he appears to have no chance, weakening badly late in both preps.As Jim points out, Mott poison now!

Sir Shack a terrible beat, much the best, did all the running, under attack throughout. Not a real derby threat since he wants the front end and won\'t get it if he gets in the derby.

The rest common slugs,except maybe Flashpoint, awful ride/trip/wrong distance.


Mike

[richiebee]

I have never been too high on THAS, and a lot of it has to do with Bill Mott\'s
historical lack of success with Spring 3YOs. You can look it up.

That being said, I have been watching Mott since about 1980 when he was winning
training titles at midwestern tracks, in the beginning with cheap claiming stock
and with some not so royally bred homebreds from a Detroit supermarket chain
owner named Farid Sefa.

Mott, like the now retired Frank Brothers, got a lot of experience as an exercise
rider for Jack Van Berg. Mott was able to learn alot by exercising his own stock
and eventually the Firestone and Paulson horses came along and William Ichabod
Mott ended up in Racing\'s Hall of Fame.

For all the blueblooded owners and runners Mott has surrounded himself with, his
graded stakes success with Spring 3YOs equals Drosselmeyer\'s Belmont win (I still
contend that this victory was a function of DMeyer\'s affinity for a Belmont strip
which was unusually deep and sandy), one win in at Keeneland, either in the
Lexington or Blue Grass and a Grade II Illinois Derby win with Vision and Verse
(who also ran second in the Grade I Belmont and Grade I Travers).

Even if THAS had gotten more out of his Fla Derby, Mott would probably be forced
to tighten the screws on this colt between now and May 7. Mott generally works
his stock in a manner I\'ve long associated with the Whiteleys and Shug McGaughey,
rarely working further than 5 furlongs and rarely asking for all in the morning.
THAS it could be argued might need two 6f works at a brisk pace between now and
May 7, and with the colt really being asked in one of the works, and I am fairly
certain Mott would not be comfortable asking for so much in the AM.

Yes, Mott\'s been in a bad slump. Drecklemeyer was empty yesterday. Mott has had
little success with his Tampa shippers. Possibly the unwanted distraction of a
Triple Crown contender has been part of the slump, who can say.

That being said, I\'ve been watching the races for as long as Frank D., and Mott
and Allen Jerkens are the two best I\'ve seen. They have had very little impact on
the Triple Crown trail, but they have played the game honestly, and the horses
have always come first.

If destiny ever afforded me the chance of owning a top notch race animal, the
first thing I would do (after of course selling a 55% share to each of Graph
Racing and Covel) would be to turn the animal over to HAJ or WIM. Unless of
course it was a Triple Crown prospect, in which case I would be looking for NPZ
or BB.

[big18741]

Disagree that THAS needs the front.

Belmont 1 1/16th maiden breaker he sat stalking slow fractions in third and wasn\'t asked until the turn.Watch the replay of that if you get a chance.JR had him relaxed there and in the FOY.

Problem in the FOY and yesterday was no horse-doesn\'t really matter where he\'s placed at this point.

[miff]

Big,

Small point.To me,it seems that he needs to be outside of horses which means up close out of kickback. Not saying he has no mouth, but can\'t see him sitting back along the rail and running well, at least he has not tried that so far.Saw all his races and he does relax.

Has not developed or maybe gone back at 3. His first race, a TG 3 was very generous. Went further back yesterday for sure but actually did more running than in his first race, where he attended soft splits and imploded.At least he roughed it up a bit in a fast 6f yesterday before getting tired.


Mike

[Wrongly]

Ok, lets turn this around and guess he gets a 3 for the Florida Derby.  Wouldn\'t you be betting a 20-1 or more off the pair with the Zero as a 2-year old? Maybe you don\'t use him on top but hard for me to toss that.

[miff]

Wrong,

There is almost no chance he paired TG 3s, since the winner only ran about that fast and there is no ground loss to enhance THAS figure.Florida Derby very slow on the clock considering yesterdays track speed.At best THAS like a TG 6, although he did more running within the race yesterday than he did in his first race.

Wouldn\'t consider him at any price after those 2 preps. I was very wrong thinking THAS would be the most likely horse to beat Uncle Mo back in December.Mott vomiting again!

Mike

[RICH]

Even if he ran the 3, what\'s so good about that line, that would basically be 4 3\'s run with an isolated 0 top in the middle, in addition, he should have gotten very close to that 0 already, he would need to run that 0 now, for me to bet that he would go forward off the 2 yr old top.

[TGJB]

My entire comment on the race is this-- the second horse is owned and bred by the guy who stiffed me on Rachel. Thank God DI got up, only rooting interest I had.

[Rich Curtis]

Dude, you need to learn to move on instead of harboring old grudges.

[TGJB]

??

[Rich Curtis]

I\'m sorry. That was an inside joke aimed at Hoarse Whisperer and Cube, who had the exact same fight many years ago, on the Rags board, under different names. It ended because someone else (one guess) made Cube flip out. Cube then called Friedman \"No Robes,\" challenged him to a handicapping contest, and got banned from the Rags board.

[jimbo66]

Not only is the paired 3, not a good thing, it is an awful thing, even if did happen.  (which as Miff points out, is unlikely given the slow time).

Healthy 3 year olds get back to their 2 year old tops by no later than their 2nd start.  The fact that THAS is many lengths away from his 2 year old top makes him a miserable play, at most any price in the Derby.  (obviously \"any price\" is an exaggeration, but \"any reasonable price\" is accurate.  As a horse with reputation, he is not likely to go off over 20-1, whereas he looks 30-1 or higher in \"true odds\" off his 3 year old campaign.

Jim

[TGJB]

I\'m trying to figure out why anyone in particular was a better bet in the futures than they will be in the race, when you know then a) they are running, b) what figures and pattern they and everyone else come in with, c) post and odds. Occasionally there\'s a good bet if you want to get them BEFORE they show something in their last, I don\'t see that here, at least with anyone that has been discussed.

[number5858]

Has anyone seen/heard post race comments from Mott or Gomez? I haven\'t so far. We are still 5 weeks out. A lot can change between now and then. We have all seen horses wake up shipping north from Florida. For me, THAS did the bare minimum he had to do. I wish he had done a little more, but I know I am not exactly fond of Mo\'s Indian Charlie breeding at 10f. The Bernardini looks a lot better for making 10f. Am I saying go dump a bunch on the horse? Of course not, but I don\'t think you give up totally. I know I don\'t particularly like the winner or Mo. Will be an interesting weekend coming up for sure. I do know that I figured THAS was done when I saw that 46 and change first half, so was surprised he held on to show. I really don\'t understand why Gomez let him get away with it. I didn\'t think he looked rank or anything. I didn\'t see the gallop out either. He looked like he needed this one too, but was better than the FOY. Personally, I can\'t rule him out, but I won\'t have a warm fuzzy feeling either. Looking forward to the remaining works and seeing what his connections have to say. Bill Mott hasn\'t been great of late, I guarantee you that he won\'t stay that way. He isn\'t a hall of famer for nothing.

[jimbo66]

He didn\'t hold place.  He came in 3rd.

The pace was not that fast for the card/surface and there is almost no reasonable doubt that the front was the place to be at Gulfstream yesterday (for more than the \"geometric\" reasons of being on the lead, saving ground).

Holding 3rd on a speed favoring track in a very slow final time, in a race that looks like another backward move, after a 3 point backward move the previous race, is not exactly moving in the right direction.