Smith in detail on the ride

[P-Dub]

Saying a horse didn\'t handle the surface doesn\'t sound that incredulous, compared to the other things they say.

[TGJB]

The bigger question is, you\'re sitting in Hawaii, and the best thing you can think of to do is come on this site, or even on the internet? Pretty sure I could come up with something better.

[Bet Twice]

Boscar Obarra Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> She may well get a decent figure. There must be a
> generous allowance for doing an Irish Jig early in
> the race ;-)

That would be the IJ right of the number.

[Rich Curtis]

Jimbo wrote:

\"Figures are not an opinion. I hope you get that. I don\'t make the pace figures. Moss does, so do other pace figure makers. They aren\'t opinions. They are mathematical calculations.\"

  Of course they are opinions, Jimbo. They are judgments. Hell, judges even call their judgments \"opinions.\" When you buy figures, that is the heart of what you are paying for: judgment. Calling them \"mathematical calculations\" is like calling my girl-rating system mathematical calculations. Yeah, there\'s some math in there, but there\'s a lot more than that in there, too.

[smalltimer]

The idea she earned a good figure going 10 furlongs as a 6 year old against the best available dirt horses says plenty.  
She had adversity in the race, just like the other 11 horses in the field.  She ran good, just not good enough.  
I can\'t wait for her next race.

[P-Dub]

JB ,
Good point.

Wife was getting ready, waiting to go run around.

Point taken though, lol.

[Footlick]

You guys sure bought it when Velasquez said QR doesn\'t handle the slop.  Pletcher said after the JGC that QR handled the track just fine.  I guess if it is QR and his jockey it\'s the truth.

[what about bob]

If you believe that the first 1/8th or 1/4 of a mile cost her the race then you must believe Blame got a perfect trip.  I say Blame wins by 2 lengths if he doesn\'t run the first half of the race on a dead rail and then get pinched between horses in the stretch. Where does it end?

[Rick B.]

what about bob Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> If you believe that the first 1/8th or 1/4 of a
> mile cost her the race then you must believe Blame
> got a perfect trip.  I say Blame wins by 2 lengths
> if he doesn\'t run the first half of the race on a
> dead rail and then get pinched between horses in
> the stretch. Where does it end?

Some moron on another board actually said that Blame staggered home the last 1/16th.
 
As long as people either don\'t know how to watch a race -- or more likely, just see what they want to see...that which fits their pre-conceived notions of what *must* have happened in order to explain a result they can\'t or won\'t accept -- I\'m sorry, it won\'t ever end.

[jimbo66]

Rich

That is a philosophical debate.  I have made my own figures, didn\'t like doing it, but it is certainly not pure judgment.  Part science, part art/judgment.

But do you really disagree that Zenyatta\'s pace figure for this race was not her standard or are you just cherrypicking my post for the portion of it you don\'t agree with?

I have seen 3 sets of pace figures for the race.  They are roughly the same.  That makes me feel they are pretty solid.  The same way I feel when I see multiple sets of standard figs in total agreement.

[Rich Curtis]

Jimbo,

  I did not say it was pure judgment. But judgment is very much involved. In the case of Randy Moss, he makes his pace figures in large part off of Andy Beyer\'s final-time variant, and Beyer gets his final-time variant by using the projection method, which is judgment galore. What is more, Moss cuts some of his pace variants loose from Beyer\'s final-time variant--and this involves another judgment. Indeed, his entire system is based on an overarching judgment about when to do one or the other. And his scale, a supposed \"pure speed\" scale, is based on yet another judgment. Calling these things \"not an opinion,\" but rather \"a mathematical calculation,\" as you did, is flat-out false. Opinions come into play constantly when making these things, and I believed that this deserved to be pointed out. In addition, you mentioned pacefigures. You mean the CJ Milkowski website? CJ uses judgment all over the place. And Thoro-Graph? JB made a whole post talking about how when you buy Thoro-Graph, the most important thing you are buying is his judgment about what figures to give. Ragozin? Same thing. Judgments all over the place.

   You wrote:

  \"But do you really disagree that Zenyatta\'s pace figure for this race was not her standard or are you just cherrypicking my post for the portion of it you don\'t agree with?\"

  I think the idea of using Moss Pace Figures to compare fractions earned on different circuits is comical. Moss is OK at some things, but this ain\'t one of them. His numbers across circuits can be so ludicrous that I have been known to burst out laughing as I read them. But to your larger point, I wouldn\'t be at all surprised if Zenyatta\'s pace figure from Saturday fits with her others. However, I do not believe that is the key issue. The key issue is what her pace figure would have been without \"kickback\" or \"funny business\" or whatever you want to call it. And on this question I have no opinion whatsoever. I just wanted to clear up the opinion/judgment thing.

[Footlick]

I have a question from a non-pace figure person.  After Zenyatta\'s opening quarter, she fired off a 23.60 and a 23.80 for her next two quarters.  Then, the quarter where QR backed into her and then she had to wait for LAL to clear her, was a 24.40.  Her final quarter was 24 flat.  The loss of momentum seems evident.  She isn\'t a grinder so there is no problem with her accelerating once clear, but it does seem that something held her up more this year than last, where I believe she negative split her quarters.  I know that that is the hazard of her running style.  But she had a better trip last year even though it looked similar.  I guess what I am wondering is how this would impact her figure?  Does something like this impact it or is it path and dead rail and such that impacts it more.

[Badride]

Bob.   That is absolutely ridiculous to say blame would have won by 2.   Hell he had a perfect trip.  Sat mild fractions and still was all out to hold on a nose.   If that race is ran 10 more times I dare say he wouldn\'t beat her once.   She was so visably superior to every animal in there it\'s pointless to even discuss a pace figure, a beyer, etc.   If you guys don\'t watch enough races to know that mare was by far the best horse in the race maybe you should take up another hobby.   Lord have mercy

[Rick B.]

Badride Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> That is absolutely ridiculous to say blame
> would have won by 2.   Hell he had a perfect trip.

Where was your commentary when Zenyatta was getting all of her perfect trips in all of her prior races?

> Sat mild fractions and still was all out to hold on a nose.

I think you mean: Zenyatta was all out to pass Blame, and couldn\'t do it. Right?

>If that race is ran 10 more times I dare say he wouldn\'t beat her once.

You can dare say whatever you want, because it won\'t happen. The race was only run once. Zenyatta lost. Get over it.

> She was so visably superior to every animal in there it\'s pointless to even
> discuss a pace figure, a beyer, etc.

If you don\'t sit down with a stopwatch and do the math, I\'ll bet you get fooled regularly by this \"visably superior\" stuff. Horses that \"look\" like they are making huge moves late in the race are usually slowing down already, just less so than the horses that have already put in their run and expended most of their energy.

>If you guys don\'t watch enough races to know that mare was by far the best horse
>in the race maybe you should take up another hobby. Lord have mercy

\"By far\"? Are you sure Zenyatta was even the best in the race by a little bit?

There are some serious handicappers here, people that are far sharper than me, and you are way out of line to make such a statement here. Tone down the rhetoric, and pay attention -- you just might learn something about the game on this forum. Won\'t cost you a thing, either, except maybe some old, tired handicapping attitudes and precepts that might be keeping you from winning.

[Badride]

Speak for yourself.  There may be a lot sharper than you.  I doubt any are sharper than me.    I\'m really could careless what you think
about her race.  If you don\'t think she\'s the best horse I\'m glad you\'re in the paramutual pools against me.