This is always where I get myself into trouble but....

[covelj70]

Jimbo,

my guy says SC looked like he was having issues as well this AM.

Welsh is very professional in his comments (I think he does a great job actually) so he tries not to be too harsh in his commentaty on the negative side.

One thing to keep in mind about all of these clocker comments is that they are meaningless unless there is some relevant comparison points.

For example, everyone who saw Blind Luck physically for the first time during Oaks week said she looked terrible.  She wasn\'t carrying alot of weight, she looked tucked up, etc.  However, the problem with those comments is that\'s how she looks all of the time (she even fooled her connections with her appearance which is why she started off as a claimer).  She hadn\'t lost weight because she had gotten knocked out by a prior race, that\'s just her makeup.

I have one horse in particular where weight loss is very indicative of how much the prior race took out of him.  We can usually tell when he\'s about to run well (for him) based on how much weight he\'s carrying into a race.  

Point of all of this is, each horse is different.

Reason I bring this up is that alot of the same people who talked about how great Sydney\'s Candy moved/looked during derby week are saying the exact opposite now.  He isn\'t moving well.  I put this next to the fact that there was clearly a sale that didn\'t go through and one reason could have been a minor vet issue (i.e. something that doesn\'t prevent him from running but something that casued a buyer to back away).  To be clear, I absolutely don\'t know for sure that\'s what happened but I would say it\'s a logical conclusion based on what we now know about how he\'s not training as well as he did before the Derby.

With all of this said, Jimbo, I probably just locked up the win for you with this long-winded diatribe!

[jimbo66]

Jcovelo,

thanks for the comments.  All good points.  Hard to argue.

Jim

[alm]

For sure, you should take a crack at a 10-1 shot you think has a shot....but the way I look at the numbers on this race Sydney\'s only and therefore best grass race is significantly slower than several others in the race.

He might jump up and outrun all of those, but I don\'t bet that way...I would rather spread around on the others who have run faster or try to guess which of these is most likely to run his best.  I don\'t really care about ground loss AS MUCH at this level of competition.

For example, someone else on this string pointed out that Gio Ponti, if he is in the race, will suffer ground loss.  That\'s true, but cycle back your memory of his races...this sucker is completely unafraid of running inside and moving through the field.  He may drop back but he won\'t necessarily have to go wide.

Good horses are often brave horses (not always.) I think Gio Ponti can run a good one here, but I think this Paco Boy is the absolute threat.  

Someone else mentioned Alan Garcia had been replaced on Al Khali...I hadn\'t heard that yet...often with Garcia he makes the move...I care more about where he ends up rather than where he leaves.

[Lost Cause]

Lost Cause Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I felt Blame just bounced in the Jockey Club after
> running a huge race to run down Quality Road even
> though that one set slow fractions.  Should have
> gotten the bounce out of his system in last and I
> don\'t see him having issues with the distance...
>
> Quality Road - Distance challenged- When he wins a
> race past 1 1/8 against top level horses I\'ll be
> the first to admit I know nothing about
> horseracing. I\'ll play him for 3rd or fourth
>
> Zenyatta- at 2/1 or less coming from dead last
> against top dirt horses I \'ll let her beat me..
>
> Looking at Lucky-I need him to revert to his old
> form of getting in trouble in every race because
> he scares me a bit looks like he can run all day
> too..I\'ll protect with him as his odds should be
> over 8/1.
>
> I really think Blame is top class and I hope he
> finally gets his due on Saturday..



Just finished with the sheets and I feel like Fly Down has to get thrown into this mix also..He might be 18/1..Good numbers and a closer off a healthy pace.