Zenyatta Insight?

[plasticman]

I know that you might want to send me to the loony bin after this comment, but maybe Z will be 3-5 at post time. Yep, i said it, 3-5.

Just remember, she\'s going for 20 in a row and everyone knows this is her last race win or lose. 20 is a nice round number and its going to be 1 more than Peppers Pride, she\'ll have the all time record if she wins and you know what that means? The entire world will be betting 2 dollars to win and \'saving\' the ticket or selling it on ebay just in case she wins.

Is there anyone who\'s NOT betting 2 dollars to win on Z and saving the ticket?

Some really good/great comments on Z in this thread. I\'m sure she will show up at Churchill at some point and start galloping and eventually she\'ll work a couple of times, we\'ll see if that means anything.

This is a tricky classic because you have two major horses (Blame and QR) who are extremely talented, but are coming off clunkers, so hard to know what to do with these two individuals.

Z might be a better gamble in exotics, no way she\'s 3-5 in the pick 4.

[hooper]

From DRF.

Owned by Jerry and Ann Moss, Zenyatta will remain in Southern California through the end of October, Shirreffs said Sunday. She is likely to have her workouts for the BC Classic at Hollywood Park and ship to Churchill Downs early on the week of the Breeders' Cup.

"Not knowing what the weather will be [in Kentucky], we'll probably wait and go late," Shirreffs said.

[smalltimer]

RICH,
If she\'s healthy, she\'s in the Classic.  By definition doesn\'t that make her willing to butt heads with the best male horses in the world?
Maybe I misinterpret your commment?
Peace out

[RICH]

Smalltimer

I just kind of meant the owner/trainer are shooting for the stars here amd that when the going gets rough \"she\" may not be all in when facing the boys on on the CD dirt, especially at very low odds, those 3 variables make her a hard horse to like. This classic is setting up for a surprise, hopefully, there is another Volponi in here. Good Luck

[smalltimer]

RICH,
At 2-1 or so, I won\'t have a nickel on her.  I agree this race could hold a surprise or two.  I just hope the entire field gets a fair trip so there are no excuses afterward.
Have a good one.

[Leamas57]

There isn\'t enough money in horseracing to put Z at 3-5. I would start my own hedge fund and bet against her if I thought that would happen. My biggest fear is that QR and Blame are still not coming into this on top form and LAL finally runs a bad race. Even then she would probably get beat, but the good news is that there will finally be a good chance to make money on this horse being off this horse

Leamas

[P-Dub]

And some might get back to even after trying it already.

[miff]

\"There isn\'t enough money in horseracing to put Z at 3-5. I would start my own hedge fund and bet against her if I thought that would happen. My biggest fear is that QR and Blame are still not coming into this on top form and LAL finally runs a bad race. Even then she would probably get beat, but the good news is that there will finally be a good chance to make money on this horse being off this horse\"


....wow, horse won 19 in a row and doesn\'t even have a shot? tough crowd here.

Mike

[Leamas57]

That\'s not a great statistic to use for an arugument. Won the last several by less than length--perhaps combined, and against second flight fillies. Now goes against the best of the best?

Horse has a chance, but mostly by attrition. What\'s more, the horse is getting older, and changing tracks and surfaces, and traveling, and pushing the law of averages.

Leamas

[marcus]

I seriously doubt that Z ever cranks out a neg 5 or 7 imo ! (Famous last words )  . QR is  -2 , -3  , - 5 , -7  going back in the last 4 races - 0 2 X X ? . The way I see it , he won\'t need to run back all the way and could take it with a secondary top ...

[P-Dub]

Sure he can , but it won\'t be easy doing it:
- In a full field
- With pace pressure
- Going 1 1/4 miles
- Someplace other than Gulfstream.

They aren\'t machines, and if you want to take him at around 4/1 then good luck with that. How many times has he run his secondary top??  How confident are you that he will run his \"secondary top\" under the conditions mentioned??

That Quality Road bandwagon is growing by the day.

[MonmouthGuy]

I would be very surprised if he goes off at anywhere less than 6-1.  

At 6-1, would you think that is that a worse comparative value play than \"the Queen\" at 4-5?

[P-Dub]

Missed the part where anybody said 4/5 was good value on any horse.

A ripped up ticket at 6/1 is as valuable as a ripped up 4/5 ticket.

[jimbo66]

Don\'t think you will see 4-5 or 6-1.

ASsuming a representative field, the over/under on Zenyatta is 2-1 and Quality Road is 4-1 IMHO.

[Millennium3]

Let\'s leave aside whether she\'s sore or not now and go back to the run up to the BC Classic last year. Going into that one, there were faster horses - mostly Quality Road who ended up scratching at the gate when he flipped out mentally. What\'s most apparent is the synthetic surface, where she has made all but 3 of her lifetime starts, helped her enormously and the faster figure horses not so much at all. In fact Zenyatta\'s closest pursuers in the 09 Classic were two grass horses: Gio Ponti and Twice Over. The synthetic loving male rivals last year - Colonel John, Richard\'s Kid, Awesome Gem - can best be described as inconsistent.

She\'s going to be a huge favorite this year because of her press & popularity. But on a natural dirt surface at Churchill which doesn\'t hurt her most serious rivals like the synthetic tracks do, she\'s tough to take a short price. It\'s not to say Zenyatta can\'t win, sore or not. But it was interesting that some of her most recent victims haven\'t done a lot to flatter her when they\'ve gone elsewhere. Most recently Rinterval & Zardana (Zenyatta\'s stable mate) showed up at Keeneland against a weak bunch in the Spinster and were nowhere to be found when the big checks were passed out.

Zenyatta has been basically carrying thoroughbred racing on her back for the last 3 years in terms of public recognition so she deserves a lot of credit for that. But even getting the weight she\'ll get from the likes of Blame & Quality Road - and her having to give weight to Lookin At Lucky -  she\'s tough to take at the very short price you\'ll get at Churchill.