Kentucky Derby, Oaks 2003 Figures

[TGAB]

Attached are Thoro-Graph sheets with figures for the 2003 Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks.

[Marc At]

I could be wrong about this, but isn\'t this a faster number for the Derby winner than some famous Derby winners past? For example, Spend A Buck\'s raw time was 2:00:20, and his Tgraph number was a 3.25.

Was the track on Kentucky Derby Day this year that much slower than in Spend A Buck\'s year?

[TGJB]

We don\'t have the work on anything before 1992, and SAB saved even more ground than FC, but by definition we are saying that. On the other hand, if you think I\'m going to stand behind my work of 18 years ago, when I was still in diapers, you are crazy. I was just learning my trade, and it took time for the data base to firm up enough to produce the kind of tightness you can see in the 03 Derby and Oaks figures-- you start by using rough averages (par levels), then go on to using the figure histories of the horses that ran on a specific day, in a specific race. Gradually things get smoother and tighter.

In 85 I wouldn\'t have known enough yet to pull the only 1 1/4 race loose from the rest of the day, and might not even have known enough to split the one and two turn races. Yeah, back in \'85 the figures were still largely a result of broad averages, and much rougher, sort of like...

[Jersey City Jake]

I\'m somewhat new to TG, but I can\'t decide whose line looks more bizarre to me, Empire Maker or Atswhat.  Both of them tripled up (or quadrupled up) lifetime tops.  Am I wrong, or is this unusual?  And if you thought both would regress at least a little on Derby Day, what do you expect to see at Pimlico?

[Anonymous User]

Jerry,

When I just read you \"pulled the derby loose\" from the rest of the card I thought..why?

Now I see. Reviewed the whole card and there were no other two turn dirt races. Somehow that slipped by me.

I\'m not saying it will influence me to resume buying your product, though theres always that possibility But can you tell us what you saw in the lone two turn dirt race that made its final time inconsistent with the final times run in the other dirt races on Saturday?  

Which quarter did you not find consistent? The second, The first? All the other quarters were run on parts of the track that other dirt horses ran on throughout the day. Maybe you felt the final time was outta line? I didn\'t sense that.

CtC

[alm]

The figures suggest that Empire Maker should have come out of the Derby a very tired horse, which may be why Frankel is waffeling about running him in Baltimore.  His races haven\'t been spaced very well.

Funny Cide may need a real break to win in Baltimore unless he has a move forward from here.  A bad post, especially at Pimlico, could do him in.

Peace Rules could be the best shot in the next race, if he moves forward, which is a real possibility...the Derby could prove to have been a \'tightener\' for him.  If he draws near the rail, watch out.

Baffert switching jockeys on Indian Express is interesting.  He seems to be suggesting that Baze was at fault for the bad start.  But Baze is every bit as good a gate jockey as Valenzuela.  He may not be as strong, but they are both speed freaks.

Bringing Senor Swinger over tells me that Baffert wants to hedge his bet by sending IE out aggressively, at least softening the pacesetters if he can\'t take the field the entire way, and having the option set for SS to close.  But SS may not be good enough anyway.

By the way, the unusually consistent string of numbers for EM and Atswhat brings me back to my original question on this site: what effect does blood doping have on the numbers and the patterns?  Could this be it?

[DubaiMill.]

I think that all you are so consume in the sheet numbers that you fail to watch the races carefully?

EM has been all out in the last 2 races.
FC is the real deal based on the last four races.
PR is the miler in the world turf or dirt including Congaree.
If you think I\'M kidding.Ask Baffert where Congaree will run in Oct.
He will tell you the Classic because he knows its the easiest division.

Bottom line.
FC gets beat in the next 2 races.
This years 3 year olds are lacking the 3 best of its generation
Vindication,Toccet,And Sky Mesa.
Sky Mesa when right will be horse of the year when all is said and done.

[Supah Blitz]

DubaiMill,

Are you taking any medication for your condition?

[TGJB]

This year I didn\'t have to cut loose the Derby-- the race fit with the other 2 turn race (last race) on the card, and in fact pretty much fit with the routes from the previous day, with the variant being 1/2 point away from the one I used for the Oaks.

The decision to split sprints and routes isn\'t made by looking at internal fractions. Over time we have found that there isn\'t NECESSARILY a fixed relationship between one and two turn races-- track maintenance, weather conditions, shade, whatever, affect the relationship. So we split them as a matter of course-- sometimes they correlate, sometimes they do not.

[MO]

Peace Rules looks to me to be o-2-x -ing.

[TGJB]

Jake--

All this repeating used to be very unusual, but it is happening more and more. I think it\'s a function of improved sportsmedicine, and I\'m talking this time about legal things-- vets are able to help horses recover better from the exertion of racing. Hence less bouncing, more peak efforts.

We said in our seminar that EM was about 50% to go back, and figured to lose ground, and so was a play against at a short price (which he didn\'t end up going off at anyway). As for Ats, we said another FORWARD move in the short term was unlikely. We also said his running style would be a problem, which it was not-- he had a little traffic at the top of the stretch, but in general got a great trip.

My Preakness opinions will be in with the sheets for that day.

[Anonymous User]

so the 12th race on derby day was a two turner also...lol

Never trust an internet download...I was shorted a race. Its ok I stopped betting after the 10th anyway

Thanks for the proprietary info

ctc

[DubaiMill.]

I take the big c.
Call John Ward.The best horse is lying in wait.

His name is Sky Mesa.

[SoCalMan2]

To me, Patrick Valenzuela is so much better a jockey than Tyler Baze out of the gate or anywhere else on the track that making such a switch is a complete no-brainer.  Other than P Val\'s history of substance abuse problems, I cannot imagine why any owner or trainer would select Tyler Baze over P. Val. (at least in 2003 or any time prior. Maybe T. Baze will learn over time but I am not holding my breath waiting).