Zenyatta-Outstanding

[Silver Charm]

Good One Ritchie.

Those were the days weren\'t they. $75-$100k Claimers was about as cheap as it got. A Handicap might dot the undercard. 2YO Champs were eyeballing Stakes races by now. God have they run a 2YO race in NY yet?

[FrankD.]

A wise man once said \" it\'s not smart to argue with a fool \" because after awhile listeners can\'t tell which is the fool

[P-Dub]

ajkreider Wrote:
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> These sorts of sports debates between generations
> are
>
> a) a fun past time that often gets people all
> worked up
>
> b) almost never resolved because there isn\'t a way
> to compare apples to apples over time
>
> The lone exception seems to be horse racing. This
> is exactly what the figs are supposed to be able
> to do. Talk of who carried what weight is factored
> in.
>
> So, why isn\'t this resolved by going to the figs?
> And, I believe today\'s horses come out faster, on
> the whole.  Monarchos got a bet Rag number than
> Secretariat for the Derby. MONARCHOS!  
>
> Either a serious rethink is in order concerning
> how great those older horses were, or we should
> toss fig analysis altogether.


ajkreider...aka nyc1348

[ajkreider]

Hah!

I wish I had 5k for a show bet at Mountaineer.

I perfectly happy to admit that Dr. Fager was the best horse ever to set foot on track.  Just wish the arguments for that didn\'t reduce to \"I saw him run\".  Don\'t know how to argue with an incredulous stare.

[moosepalm]

ajkreider Wrote:
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  Just wish
> the arguments for that didn\'t reduce to \"I saw him
> run\".  Don\'t know how to argue with an incredulous
> stare.

Can I assume, then, you\'re not married?

Those of us old enough to have been there are often accused of revisiting such events through the grainy lens of a Ken Burns production.  Yes, we romanticize it and glorify it, perhaps disproportionately so.  MJ or LeBron? Or Kobe?  Borg or Sampras or Federer?  When I was in college, we had a defensive tackle who, at the time, appeared to me to be the size of a small building, easily the largest player on the team, and a high 1st round pick.  He was 6\'5\" and 270, barely larger than some tight ends on that same college team, today.  You can\'t level the playing field.  Genetics and technology, both legal and illegal, have changed the landscape to render most comparisons fruitless.  Can TG account for all these variables to give us a time-transcendent perspective?  Frankly, I don\'t care if they can.  If I can\'t bet on the outcome, then I am indifferent to any information which attempts to contravene what I know to be true in the replay booth of my mind\'s eye.

[smalltimer]

Jimbo,
I was probably one of the guys floating the rumor that Z\'s workouts were not on her regular scale.  I see someone sent in the report from the expert on the workouts and he had them rated as A.  Turns out, the workout pattern was barely sufficient.  
I was concerned leading up to the race, and it was not widely reported, but I knew Zenyatta had dropped noticeable weight since returning from the Apple Blossom, and that was not typical of her, add to the fact her age, carrying 129#\'s and a real nice filly like St. T along with the weight concession, I honestly could envision an upset.  But, I\'ll give Shireffs credit for knowing how much gas to put in the tank and still squeak out a win.  
I totally agree that the matchup between RA and Z, if it occurs, should be with those 2 great horses and a field of fillies.  Quality Road is a great horse, running great, but really, the entire racing industry has been waiting for these 2 superstars to be in the same race.  This scenario has nothing to do with the idea that either Rachel or Z fear running against QR.  That issue can be settled in the Breeders Cup for all the marbles.  It doesn\'t seem right these 2 stars should have to share the spotlight with anyone until they\'ve had a go at each other.
I\'d say the ball is in Shireffs court...that may not help us much.  His concern about Z returning from another road trip and dropping weight could be a deal breaker.

[alm]

Mike

I agree...how about for fun the equal weights have to be 132 pounds...that should make for an interesting challenge.

[sekrah]

We are allowed to have different opinions.  :-D.  Cheers.

[nyc1347]

ajkreider Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Hah!
>
> I wish I had 5k for a show bet at Mountaineer.





hey now..  EVERY race present a new wagering opportunity.. i would rather wager on a situation where there are cheap horses and somethiing stick out and take the %20 ROI then to wager on a $300k stakes where horses are forging left and right and lose %100 of the wager.  A profit is a profit no  matter where it comes from.  And i dont normally wager Mountaineer but THAT was just an easy race to hit.

[Lost Cause]

nyc1347 Wrote:
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>  A profit is a profit no
> matter where it comes from.

This is the motto I live by...I\'ve seen a lot of you guys tearing into NYC for his show betting and I understand you guys are not necessarily telling him he\'s wrong but trying to tell him there is a better way.  In the end if the guy (i\'m guessing as we don\'t seem to have much women here) wants to bet show because that\'s what he feels comfortable with why are we telling him what to do with his money.  Let him post and hopefully let him win.  He made 50% on his cash layout yesterday and i\'ve seen a couple others where he made a nice couple of scores.  So what if it\'s a tough way to make a living, it\'s his way..

[nyc1347]

i guess you can say my style is to look all over the place sometimes...  everyone here will wager the duke vs. maryland basketball game (saratoga) and il look for an edge everywhere including 2nd half lines of the cal poly vs long beach state game (mountaineer)..  whatever gets the job done!

[Funny Cide]

smalltimer Wrote:
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> The weight is totally wrong in your scenario.  The
> reigning Horse of the Year gets spotted 4 pounds?
> Make it even weighted at 123 apiece, that way,
> neither horse is compromised and if I were Z\'s
> connections and was expected to concede 4# to the
> reigning HOY, I\'d tell them to stick it.  These
> are two truly great animals, they will put on a
> great show if they can be matched up in the next
> few months.  Anytime you have a weight concession
> it leaves the argument open if the race is decided
> by a half length or so.
> How great is it that they both are still running
> great?  Two months ago it looked like Rachel was
> not going to be able to match or approach her
> greatness from \'09.
> Zenyatta runs her usual disadvantaged style
> against a nice filly, spotting weight and still
> finding enough late to get the job done.  She\'s a
> great one, no doubt. I watched the replay several
> times now, and Z was ALL OUT until a couple
> strides before the line, so it was not easy today
> and I knew it wouldn\'t be.
> I do think if Z and Rachel get matched up, the
> lead up to the race in terms of workouts for
> Zenyatta will be different that leading up to this
> one.
> 129#\'s and her advancing age all added up to a
> real gut-wrencher today. I\'m just glad she was
> able to pull it out.

I can\'t help but laugh.  Did you all see the photo of the Amazon queen at the wire?  Her competitor\'s hind end looked a foot lower then Zenyatta\'s.

What\'s Zenyatta weigh?  She\'s at least a couple hundred heavier than her opponents.  That means 129 pounds is less as a percentage of body weight than 120 is for the smaller competitor.  

Zenyatta should probably give 10 pounds to her nearest competitor just to be carrying the same weight as a percentage of body weight.

[smalltimer]

That\'s a great concept. The idea that a horse(s) should be weighted according to their body weight is likewise worth a chuckle, no offense taken Funny Cide.  

FYI, Zenyatta weighs 1,300 pounds.  So, she carried 10% of her body weight.

Strength does not precipitate speed.

If you give me your personal email address in a private message, I\'ll send you a picture I took of her last year from about 5\' away.  
Physically she is a monster.      

Peace out...

[Funny Cide]

smalltimer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> That\'s a great concept. The idea that a horse(s)
> should be weighted according to their body weight
> is likewise worth a chuckle, no offense taken
> Funny Cide.  
>
> FYI, Zenyatta weighs 1,300 pounds.  So, she
> carried 10% of her body weight.
>
> Strength does not precipitate speed.
>
> If you give me your personal email address in a
> private message, I\'ll send you a picture I took of
> her last year from about 5\' away.  
> Physically she is a monster.      
>
> Peace out...

It\'s a logical concept.  Size has nothing to do with talent or speed, but it obviously affects the ability to carry weight.  If Zenyatta is 1300 pounds (that would\'ve been my guess as well), then she carried 9.9% of her body weight when carrying 129 pounds.  Her competitor who weighs 1100 and carries 120 is carrying 10.9% of its body weight.  If the competitor weighs 1000 pounds, it\'s carrying 12% of its body weight.

There are few studies on weight-carrying ability, but not surprisingly, all talk about weight as a percentage of the horse\'s weight - not random weights with no care for the horse\'s own weight:
-------


While most healthy horses can easily carry a rider and saddle, they do have their limits. Now researchers have identified a threshold for when a rider is too heavy for a horse to comfortably carry.

The scientists base their findings on detailed measurements taken of eight horses that were ridden while packing anywhere from 15 to 30% of their body weight. The horses ranged in size from 400 to 625 kilograms (885 to 1375 pounds).

When carrying 15 and 20% of their body weight, the horses showed relatively little indication of stress. It's when they were packing weights of 25% that physical signs changed markedly, and these became accentuated under 30% loads.  

The horses had noticeably faster breathing and higher heart rates when carrying tack and rider amounting to 25% or more of their body weight. A day after trotting and cantering with the heftier weights, the horses' muscles showed substantially greater soreness and tightness. Those horses that were least sore from the exercise had wider loins, the part of a horse's back located between their last rib and croup.

Based on these results, the study's authors recommend that horses not be loaded with greater than 20% of their body weight. A 545-kilogram (1200 pound) horse, then would be best off carrying no more than 109 kg (240 lbs) of tack and rider.

Interestingly, this research from the Ohio State University Agricultural Technical Institute has concluded with the same weight guideline that the US Calvary Manuals of Horse Management published in 1920.

[P-Dub]

Funny Cide Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> smalltimer Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > That\'s a great concept. The idea that a
> horse(s)
> > should be weighted according to their body
> weight
> > is likewise worth a chuckle, no offense taken
> > Funny Cide.  
> >
> > FYI, Zenyatta weighs 1,300 pounds.  So, she
> > carried 10% of her body weight.
> >
> > Strength does not precipitate speed.
> >
> > If you give me your personal email address in a
> > private message, I\'ll send you a picture I took
> of
> > her last year from about 5\' away.  
> > Physically she is a monster.      
> >
> > Peace out...
>
> It\'s a logical concept.  Size has nothing to do
> with talent or speed, but it obviously affects the
> ability to carry weight.  If Zenyatta is 1300
> pounds (that would\'ve been my guess as well), then
> she carried 9.9% of her body weight when carrying
> 129 pounds.  Her competitor who weighs 1100 and
> carries 120 is carrying 10.9% of its body weight.
> If the competitor weighs 1000 pounds, it\'s
> carrying 12% of its body weight.
>
> There are few studies on weight-carrying ability,
> but not surprisingly, all talk about weight as a
> percentage of the horse\'s weight - not random
> weights with no care for the horse\'s own weight:
> -------
>
>
> While most healthy horses can easily carry a rider
> and saddle, they do have their limits. Now
> researchers have identified a threshold for when a
> rider is too heavy for a horse to comfortably
> carry.
>
> The scientists base their findings on detailed
> measurements taken of eight horses that were
> ridden while packing anywhere from 15 to 30% of
> their body weight. The horses ranged in size from
> 400 to 625 kilograms (885 to 1375 pounds).
>
> When carrying 15 and 20% of their body weight, the
> horses showed relatively little indication of
> stress. It's when they were packing weights of 25%
> that physical signs changed markedly, and these
> became accentuated under 30% loads.  
>
> The horses had noticeably faster breathing and
> higher heart rates when carrying tack and rider
> amounting to 25% or more of their body weight. A
> day after trotting and cantering with the heftier
> weights, the horses' muscles showed substantially
> greater soreness and tightness. Those horses that
> were least sore from the exercise had wider loins,
> the part of a horse's back located between their
> last rib and croup.
>
> Based on these results, the study's authors
> recommend that horses not be loaded with greater
> than 20% of their body weight. A 545-kilogram
> (1200 pound) horse, then would be best off
> carrying no more than 109 kg (240 lbs) of tack and
> rider.
>
> Interestingly, this research from the Ohio State
> University Agricultural Technical Institute has
> concluded with the same weight guideline that the
> US Calvary Manuals of Horse Management published
> in 1920.

This is all well and good.

But weight assigned has to do with performance, not size. So a big, slow horse should carry more weight than a small, fast horse??

Unless you have a big fast horse, they would carry more than a small slow horse.

A big fast horse should carry more than a fast small horse??

And finally if we have a big slow horse going against a small slow horse......nobody would care.